gretel
21 Apr 2017
Tipped this morning Could be a good week ahead:[link] small-cap with big potential?Gama Aviation (LSE: GMAA) specialises in providing private jet services for corporate and government customers. Previously known as Hangar 8, Gama has grown rapidly over the last five years through a mix of acquisitions and organic growth.The group's sales have risen from $26.9m in 2012 to $203m in 2016. Post-tax profit has risen from $0.49m in 2012 to $16.6m last year. With such rapid growth, you might expect Gama stock to be on a sky-high P/E rating already.That's not the case. Gama trades on a 2017 forecast P/E of just 8.3.One reason for this is that the group's expansion has partly been funded by issuing a significant number of new shares. Since April 2014, Gama's share count has risen from 9.5m to 43.9m. This means that earnings per share have not risen as fast as the group's headline profits.I'd normally be wary about investing in companies where shareholder dilution is a serious risk. But Gama's return on capital employed has averaged 16.9% over the last four years, suggesting to me that the group's acquisitions are making a fair contribution to profits.Gama's adjusted earnings are expected to rise by 6% to $0.32 per share in 2017 and by 11% to $0.36 per share in 2018. These forecasts put the shares on a forecast P/E of 8.3, falling to a P/E of 7.5 next year.I'd want to do further research, but Gama looks like a potential growth buy to me."
gretel
18 Apr 2017
Cantor note from last week FYI here's Cantor's summary from their note last week, which increased their target price to 270p.They now forecast as follows:this year : 26.4p EPS, 2.9p divinext year : 29.1p EPS, 3.2p divi2019 : 33.2p EPS, 3.5p divi"Positioned for growthRecent full year results were in line with our forecast, and gross cash and working capital improved significantly. Gama has announced a series of exciting growth opportunities, particularly in the large US business aviation market. Implementation of these plans, and conversion of higher revenues into improved profits and cash will be fundamental in 2017. Our net profit forecasts for 2017-18 are largely unchanged at this stage but we lift our dividend estimates reflecting the improved cash position. The stock has rallied but is still trading on a 2017 P/E of 8.3x; a material discount to peers and the support services sector. We reiterate Buy, TP lifted to 270p from 230p."
gretel
13 Apr 2017
News re Hutchison Whampoa JV Good to see the JV with Hutchison Whampoa growing smoothly:[link] Aviation Offers Mx at Hong Kong Int'l with CASLby AIN Staff April 11, 2017, 6:50 PMGama Aviation Hutchison (Hong Kong), the joint venture formed in early 2016 between the UK’s Gama Aviation and Hutchison Whampoa, announced at ABACE this week that it has firmed up its new maintenance offering in collaboration with Hong Kong International Airport-based CASL. The new maintenance check packages will be available starting this summer, said Gama Aviation.etc"
gretel
12 Apr 2017
News : contract win [link] "Atkins and Gama Aviation awarded new Military Airworthiness contracts Posted 11 April 2017 · Atkins and Gama Aviation have secured further contracts with the Joint Helicopter Command (JHC) and Headquarters Air Command (HQ Air) to continue providing independent Military Airworthiness Review (MAR) services for aircraft on the UK Military Aircraft Register, after successfully reviewing more than 1,400 aircraft. These comprehensive reviews will help the JHC and HQ Air to assure that its aircraft are safe, airworthy and fit for deployment whenever they are needed most. Since October 2014 Atkins and Gama Aviation have successfully completed more than 1,400 MARs across a wide range of battlefield helicopters, combat jets, large transport and intelligence-gathering aircraft, as well as training and vintage aircraft. The team of award-winning MAR surveyors provide an independent review that ensures standardised and comprehensive MAR reports for Military Continuing Airworthiness Managers (Mil CAMs). This has included undertaking documentary reviews that sometimes encompass over 50 years of aircraft history. Martin Chalmers, Managing Director of Atkins’ Aerospace, Defence, Security & Technology division, said “These new contract wins demonstrate the continued confidence the Joint Helicopter Command and Headquarters Air Command have in our military airworthiness reviews and the independent airworthiness assurance they provide to the Military Continuing Airworthiness Managers.“Providing an agile and efficient service has been crucial in satisfying military clients, who operate in a dynamic and challenging environment. A key enabler for the client has been the team of highly skilled and experienced airworthiness review surveyors deployed by Atkins and Gama Aviation, who not only have an intimate understanding of the task but also the operational changes and pressures that the client has to deal with on a daily basis. working collaboratively with the client we have helped them to reach their targets, and I am highly impressed by what our teams have accomplished.”
gretel
11 Apr 2017
Cantor raise price target to 270p Nice - Cantor Fitzgerald have increased their price target to 270p (from 230p) and say Buy:[link]
gretel
31 Mar 2017
Jefferies reiterate Buy and 330p target today:[link]
gretel
30 Mar 2017
Tipped in the IC by Simon Thompson Simon Thompson says Buy as follows - his 250p target is pretty short-term imo relative to WH Ireland's 340p, which is much more realistic imo given EPS of 26.5p rising to 29.1p. ST will probably simply have to increase his price target again as he's had to do several times already! "Plotting a return to growth Alternative Investment Market (Aim)-traded Gama Aviation(GMAA:218p), an operator of privately owned jet aircraft, has modestly beaten analysts' earnings expectations, albeit its European air operations faced challenging market conditions due to "the absence of discretionary spend and lack of confidence", noted chief executive Marwan Khalek during our results call. The sharp decline in divisional underlying cash profits wiped out growth posted in other parts of the business, leading to a fall in Gama's adjusted pre-tax profits from $14.6m to $13.7m to deliver EPS of 30¢.Bearing this in mind, both finance director Kevin Godley and Mr Khalek expect modest growth from the European ground services in 2017, a view backed up by "the current pipeline and level of enquiries in areas we weren't seeing in 2016". That's good news, as is a "right sizing" of the European air business and exiting from underperforming contracts, which improved margins and boosted profits. Add to that a surge in cash profits from Gama's fast-growing US aircraft management businesses, which are being merged into a joint venture with BBA Aviation (BBA), and a return to growth this year is highly likely. Analyst John Cummins at WH Ireland and Robin Byde at Cantor Fitzgerald both expect EPS to rise by around 10 per cent to 33¢ in 2017, implying that the shares are rated on a modest eight times forward earnings, or half the support services sector average and significantly below the ratings of rivals Air Partner(AIR) and BBA. The other key take for me was management's guidance for a "significant improvement in cash conversion". Mr Godley expects net debt to halve to $9m-$10m by the year-end, which is not only good news for a continuation of the progressive dividend policy - the payout increased modestly to 2.6p a share - but with a net debt to cash profit ratio of 1.1 times well within banking headroom of 2.5 times, the company is well funded to consider making further acquisitions. The bottom line is that, having last recommended buying at 175p ahead of the results ('In the ascent', 23 January 2017), and seen my 225p target price subsequently achieved, I feel that a return to growth this year should deliver further upside and so have upgraded my target price to 250p. Buy."
gretel
29 Mar 2017
WH Ireland say Buy, see 62% upside WH Ireland in their new note have retained their Buy advice, with a 340p target price.They note that 2016 EPS was slightly ahead of expectations at 30.1c. Their forecast for this year is 32.9c, with 36.1c next year.At $1.24 that's 26.5p EPS this year rising to 29.1p EPS, i.e P/E's of 7.9 dropping to 7.2.They conclude:"Whilst there were a number of challenges in 2016, Aircraft under management increased by 12% in the year to 165 and good operational progress has been made in strengthening the Group’s position. We believe that Gama is fundamentally a strong business with excellent growth prospects over the next few years across a number of territories, including in the US following the tie up with BBA.Following the results, we nudge our revenue expectations marginally higher, whilst our EBITDA, PBT and EPS forecasts remain unchanged. We believe the shares remain undervalued and reiterate both our Buy recommendation and 340p share price target."
gretel
27 Mar 2017
Re: Results out - looks very cheap imo Looks like short-term traders who bought pre-results have been getting out - volumes are tiny and the stock is pretty illiquid. To reinforce this, there is hardly any stock available to buy online as I write, and the price has begun to bounce.A buying opportunity imho given the fundamentals and the outlook going forward, especially with the new JV with BBA, with Wheels Up's expansion and with the recovery in Europe..
gretel
27 Mar 2017
Results out - looks very cheap imo Lots of different EPS figures to use, but I suspect this is the most useful - 31.5c is 25.4p, which is above consensus forecasts of 24.61p EPS:"Underlying EPS is down 18.9% to 30.1 cents (2015: 37.1 cents). However, the EPS in 2015 benefitted from a tax credit of $2.5m against a tax charge of $0.6m in 2016. On a like-for-like basis, the underlying business produced an EPS of 31.5 cents in 2016 compared to 31.2 cents in 2015."That's a historic P/E of only around 8.7, with 27.11p EPS forecast this year.Decent results given the already known downturn last year in Europe, but the outlook this year is much more bullish, especially for the USA and with Europe recovering in both Ground and Air.Cash could be better given poor w/cap, but they specifically talk about improving this for this year.I do like the very positive outlook:"2017 has started well and our expectations for the year remain unchanged.The US market remains very buoyant and with our enlarged US Air platform, as well as the contracted growth from Wheels Up, we expect the division to continue to grow strongly. Similarly, the roll out of new maintenance bases, coupled with the significant cross selling opportunities that arise from the enlarged fleet within US Air, give us confidence that the US Ground division should also continue to grow strongly. In Europe, we expect to see a return to modest growth in Air and Ground. We are encouraged by the recent contract wins across both divisions and some early signs of a pick-up in discretionary spend in Europe Ground.We expect the progress within our Asia and Middle East divisions to continue as these operations develop.Overall, the Group is well positioned to deliver growth and performance in 2017 in line with our expectations. "
gretel
23 Mar 2017
GMAA expanding via Wheels Up Bit of consolidation at present after the big rebound. Monday's results - and most importantly the outlook - will hopefully bring about another surge given the P/E of only 7 or 8 for a globally growing market leader:News of Wheels Up's expansion (GMAA's partner), with mention of GMAA:[link] Up brings private flights to wider market Macaela J. Bennett Published 4:35 pm, Thursday, March 16, 2017 With the growth of Wheels Up, executives believe the sharing economy has hit the next industry domino. “We want to disrupt and redefine the entry level for private aviation,” Wheels Up Founder and CEO Kenny Dichter told Hearst Connecticut Media. “digitizing and democratizing the space, we want to bring it to more people.”Technology companies such as Airbnb, Amazon and Uber have a reputation for broadening an industry’s market, Dichter said. He envisions Wheels Up doing the same by offering private flights with the price point and convenience available to more people than have historically taken advantage of such services. Since its start in 2013, Wheels Up, a membership-based private aviation company that allows users to book flights through an app, has sold more than 4,000 memberships, Dichter said...........Dichter hopes that as news of the company’s services spread, its membership base will grow rapidly. Wheels Up’s next “membership milestone” is getting to 10,000 in the next few years, which would make it the “largest private aviation company in the world,” he said. For now, the Wheels Up fleet counts around 70 planes and employs many Connecticut residents, Dichter said. Some of its planes, including its most popular the King Air 350i, are operated by Gama Aviation, which has its U.S. headquarters in Shelton. Something Wheels Up makes clear in its ads and information sheets is that it doesn’t operate planes. Instead, licensed pilots through companies such as Gama are in charge of flying members. That’s a big portion of why Dichter said he’s not worried about regulators interfering with his business. In addition, he’s not dealing with uncertain and evolving rules regulating his industry, he said. “In what we do, regulations are very defined,” Dichter said. “In the industries that Uber and Airbnb operate, there have been evolving regulations.”Dichter’s resume is filled with other prosperous business innovations, including Tequila Avion, Marquis Jet — later acquired by Berkshire Hathaway — and Juice Press, which has a location on Greenwich Avenue. Lessons from those operations, as well as contacts, makes him confident Wheels Up could be his next success."
gretel
20 Mar 2017
Positive vibes re GMAA [link] privately is about to become significantly more accessible to businesses. Why? Because the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) recently announced plans to relax the rules for night and IFR (bad weather) passenger and cargo flights using single engine turboprop (SETP) aircraft....""GAMA Aviation’s Duncan Daines also said business aviation was entering an interesting era with the advent of International Air Transport Association’s New Distribution Capability (NDC) platform, whereby commercial airlines can more easily advertise ancillaries, inferring he believes it could open new doors for business aviation too."
gretel
09 Mar 2017
Good news in today's Mail From today's Daily Mail - good read-across for GMAA, especially as Farnborough is GMAA's UK headquarters:[link] celebrities turn London into the private jet capital of EuropeMore private jets fly in and out of London and its regional airports than any other European destination, underlining its attraction to the super-rich.With 13 airports suitable for private planes, there were more than 78,000 arrivals and departures last year, with growth driven by the demand for flights to Russia.... ....London and the surrounding area is the only destination on the list with more than one airport in the top 20 – including London Luton at number four, London Farnborough at number six, London Biggin Hill at number 14 and London Northolt at number 17. etc"
gretel
07 Mar 2017
New recent highs now £45,000 of shares just reported bought at 223p in two chunks. Nice.
gretel
07 Mar 2017
Moving up, strong online demand An early tick up, and looking terrific online. You can only buy a maximum 500 shares at 220p, whilst you can sell at least 12,000 at a premium at 214.35p.There could be quite a sharp upturn here on any demand.
