jaytee41
08 Sep 2017
Re: ex-div 7th? Why no drop? According to fundamentals you are correct. But it's dropping a bit now, thought it was the RNS
Clarence Beaks
08 Sep 2017
ex-div 7th? Why no drop? sure i read this went ex-div on the 7th - wondering why no drop?
gamesinvestor
07 Sep 2017
Evraz This guy are bailing out of this big steel, mining and vanadium business.Does he see another downturn in the offing?04-Sep-17 Evraz EVR Abramov,Alexander 723,872 @ 3.13p £2,267,283.58 01-Sep-17 Evraz EVR Abramov,Alexander 749,635 @ 3.18p £2,383,008.45 Games
Ripley94
04 Sep 2017
Re: Request for Counsel I see at time LK HymanThought it unwise , and preferred RIO. and BLT.They have all sort of mirrored each other with Glen about in middle of the other two on 3 year chart.
Ripley94
04 Sep 2017
Re: Request for Counsel Just reflecting i thought i had made a bad call here buying on dips in 2015.Take courage it is about Patience.I'm considering the views of others buying into rising shares .. this might be a buy.Whats the 50 day average and 200 day average ?
Eadwig
04 Sep 2017
Now Nickel is taking off! When I was looking at the H1 results, easily the poorest performing area (besides oil, which is always bad) was Nickel. However ..."Nickel surged to the highest level in more than two years, and copper chalked up its best mark since 2014, as bets on tighter markets, especially in top consumer China, keep metals buoyant after their longest run of weekly gains in a decade.Nickel advanced as much as 2.9 percent to $12,380 a metric ton, its highest since June 2015. Copper climbed as much as 1.2 percent to $6,915 a ton. All metals rose after the LME Index of six contracts capped an eight-week advance last Friday -- one short of a record run in 2006.“It certainly feels like there is a broad resetting of expectations that are driving the metals at the moment,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said. “I was in China last week and I got the very strong impression that the environmental push is having a pretty profound impact, and that’s not something that’s going to fall away quickly.”Industrial metals are rising amid speculation that sustained demand growth, coupled with restrained supply, will tighten markets. In China, environmental inspections and planned anti-pollution curbs on steel and aluminium have stoked expectations of shortages. Gains are also fuelled by a weaker dollar, a stronger Chinese currency, and a super-charged steel market in China that’s steering sentiment for other commodities.Hot-rolled coil, a major steel product, reached a fresh record on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, rising as much as 3.5 percent. The steel rally has a “blow-on” effect on the whole metals sector, Hynes said. “To an extent they are related by demand, so it’s not surprising they get pulled along.”Miners are gaining from the metals surge, with the Bloomberg World Mining Index of shares rising for an 11th day to the highest since 2014.
Clarence Beaks
01 Sep 2017
Oh yes, I'm still holding Tempted to dump a few however, but thinking of that ex-div approaching also.
Eadwig
31 Aug 2017
H1 Earnings Breakdown Attempt Ok, lets see what we can come up with for H1 2017 (to June 30) I've decided to go with *earnings* not revenues.GLEN H1 Adjusted EBIT $3,801 millionBreakdown by 'Business Segment':Metals/Minerals - Marketing: 1,048 Industrial: 1,872 Total: 2,920Energy Products - Marketing: 291 Industrial: 809 Total: 1,100Agriculture - Marketing: 107 Industrial: N/A Total: 107Corporate & Other Marketing: (78) Industrial: (248) Total: (326)Totals. Marketing: 1,368 Industrial: 2,433 Grand Total: 3,801=> Marketing is 1368/3801 = 36%=> Industrial is 2433/3801 = 64%So, how much of Metals & Minerals Industrial is Copper?Metals & Minerals Adjusted EBIT 2017H1 Total 1,872Copper 861 46%, Zinc 773 41%, Nickel (38) (2%), Ferroalloys 284 15%, Other (8)Total = $1,872 $861/$3801 = 22.5% of GLEN's EBIT earnings. Run the same figures with EBITDA and it is up in the mid 30s%, and, significantly for me, more than marketing. Personally I'm happier with marketing being the larger portion of the business.I've given as much time as I can today to it, figures from the H1 report on the Glencore web site and I've shown my working. If anyone can improve on what I've done, please do your own research and post it up here! All comments welcome.Some things worth noting:* Ex div date 7th Sept (next week) 3.5 US cents per share.* I expect the formula of $1Bn from marketing plus min. 25% of free cash flow to be paid in dividends, will see dividends increase next year by at least 175% (estimate 19 cents per share >4% yield on a share price of @350p. Anticipated to be a 50-50 split between two payments.* "Adjusted EBITDA was $6,741 million and Adjusted EBIT was $3,801 million over the first half of 2017, increases of 68% and 334% respectively, compared to H1 2016, primarily driven by higher commodity prices."* Cost of Cu production $0.88/lb. That is extremely low by anyt standard.* Nickel well down after maintenance operations. High stock levels weighing negatively on sentiment.* With so many changes in 2016 and on-going changes in 2017, I think these figures should be treated with caution when it comes to YoY comparisons or forward projections. For forward projections see the actual words of the CEO in the quarterly updates.* At H1 marketing projections were increased again. I expect GLEN to beat expectations on marketing with resilient commodity prices since the 30 June report, especially in those areas where marketing margins are greatest.
Eadwig
31 Aug 2017
Re: Copper was going to work through the figures and post as I went, but ii almost unusable for me today in Firefox and Chrome, so will have to wait until they fix their fix, I'm afraid.
Eadwig
30 Aug 2017
Re: Copper Games, Off the top of my head, about 33%-38% of revenues were from Cu last year. That might include marketing Cu also - a lot of which isn't necessarily there own produce.I'll look into it though, I may have miss-remembered. I need to get up to date on the H1 report anyway- still catching up from the summer break. (I can normally recall this stuff pretty clearly, but have a 3 year old climbing all over my shoulders and head).What an amateur trader I am - going on holiday! Pfff !!I'll take a look at the chart as well. The Baker Hughes rig count seems to have peaked, and is actually dropping now, which implies US shale has gone far enough at <$50 WTI. I'm unsure that has anything at all to do with Cu though. (I know you're not saying they're linked).
gamesinvestor
30 Aug 2017
Copper EW - What % of GLEN's biz is dependent on copper?This oil report also links it's views on copper, with the strong implication that copper is over bought, as are oil futures -- it's all speculation of course.[link] implies both commodity's are due a hefty correction.Games
Eadwig
29 Aug 2017
GLEN coal sale? GLEN continue to reposition their coal assets resulting in reduced costs and improved margins overall, plus cash on hand to chase new assets .... lets hope they choose wisely. I would have no problem with them dropping coal and oil completely over the medium term.As we have seen in recent times with several minerals, a change of direction/policy by the Chinese government could leave you high and dry or in a very lucrative short term position over certain commodity supplies.Beijing do tend to telegraph these changes, but its amazing how often the signs are overlooked - or perhaps global supply just isn't flexible enough to take such changes in its stride."Glencore says it has launched a sale process for its 75%-owned Rolleston thermal coal mine in Australia, together with its joint venture partners, Japanese trading houses Itochu and Sumitomo.Glencore says the sale is part of its ongoing efforts to restructure its portfolio of assets and target capital at other opportunities.The mine in Queensland state's Bowen Basin produced 13.3M metric tons of coal last year out of the 93M tons produced across Glencore's Australian operations."
Eadwig
29 Aug 2017
Re: GLEN Sees EVs Boosting Demand Games,I was purely going off recent price movements. Right now, there appears to be increased demand for copper and the big boys are projecting a shortfall in supply (still).In the light of that and the fact GLEN is now one of the world's largest copper producers I don't think it was a good time to sell GLEN when I did. So, I'm definitely NOT saying that this is a good time to sell GLEN, although if I had a large position I would think seriously about taking anything over @350p.Having said that, historically, GLEN can be extremely volatile, and with no stamp duty, low dealing costs and a little patience, I'm fairly confident I will get the chance to rebuild my position, which I have always intended to do. My sales were never about getting rid of a company I didn't want, they were an attempt to trade around a position and lowerr my average.Don't forget the new divi policy kicks in next year (after the next divi payment) and that may stabilize the price a little. We'll see. I have 1 tranche and would like as many as 4 by next year, if I can manage it at appropriate prices (average below @300p)I don't recognise your margin figures, by the way - but I'm still catching up from time off over the summer, so although they appear too low to me, I'm not going to dispute them and will move GLEN forward as a priority for me to catch up on.I don't think sentiment over EVs is all baloney - but these things do tend to move in fashions and cause a premium to some extent, in my experience. Having said that, its isn't a story that is going to go away, in fact I believe it will accelerate in terms of numbers produced etc. However, I'm equally convinced production techniques will reduce the amounts of Cu and other metals required (GLEN has no Lithium exposure, by the way - long may that continue).I concur with your view of Ivan getting carried away with debt once again. Its worth remembering that he has a very large personal share position, as do two other board members (totalling 15% of the company), so we can hope that they have learnt their lesson over debt (see my next post).Eadwig
gamesinvestor
29 Aug 2017
Re: GLEN Sees EVs Boosting Demand " but I've been stung so many times by GLEN in the past that I felt I had to be disciplined about it and trust that the volatility of the mining and commodity business will give me a chance to re-buy under @300p sooner rather than later."EW -- What makes you think this is the time to sell Glencore? It's a genuine question, as I have held for a couple of years and it was indeed sitting at a huge loss. The current holding is now 21% up but I don't have a particular passion for this at all, and will maintain a preference for a more long term holding in RIO.However, it does look like Glencore has significantly reduced it's debt and risk financially, at the expense of certain asset sales, although it's still got a terrible history on cash flow.Commodity prices have picked up a lot, as has sentiment towards all the miners.Is it your belief that this sentiment is baloney and will be reversed at a heartbeat, as will the commodity prices, or do you believe all the talk about massive demand for copper, cobalt, lithium with electric cars?At the end of the day, it's hard to assess a company like Glencore as a true investment, as it has very low return on assets at 1.3%, the net profit margins are less than 1%, consequently a relatively modest up or downswing in sales rocks the situation so much because of this gearing.Hard to ever know where you are with Ivan, he could just as easily go out tomorrow and do another huge acquisition and load the company full of more debt again.Games
II Editor
21 Aug 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Where to look for income as global dividend index hits three-year high "The UK was the sole region to see a year-on-year headline decline in dividends payments, according to a survey that shows global payouts hit a quarterly record in the second three months of 2017.Companies around the world paid out $447.5 billion ..."[link]
