jey80
05 Nov 2017
Paradise Papers [link]
Clarence Beaks
01 Nov 2017
Flying nicely 
Eadwig
01 Nov 2017
Re: Sold Games, "Cash looks like a reasonable option at the moment"It certainly does. Then again, so did it this time last year, and I know some people who have been sitting in cash and missed a lot of potential growth over that time.Personally I have a short position on the FTSE 100 (using ETF UK3S) which has mostly lost money over the last 12 months (occasionally I've made short term profits and even done so going with the long version of the same ETF UK3L).The overall position is currently 12% underwater approx, which means the FTSE 100 must drop 4% for me to break even overall as the ETF is 3x leveraged.Perhaps not a wise decision. On the other hand, it has enabled me to have more cash in play than I might otherwise have had since I have been fearing a major correction and whenever we do get a pullback of a percent or so, the overall damage to my portfolio value is always mitigated by this hedge gaining in value, especially as it has on occasion been as high as 8%-10% of my portfolio size.In hindsight it has been a drag on my profitability. On the other hand, I'm still on target (ahead actually) 19 months into a 5 year plan to gain 15% p.a. and so long as I maintain that momentum, especially if I can achieve the overall target, then I shall remain well satisfied with my performance.Don't have any problems with someone being out of commodities completely. If it weren't for GLEN and a couple of junior miners, I would be too. Last night I sold my final holding in a major oiler, EOG Resources, for $100. Fx costs on 50 shares over £18 which I could have saved and seeded my USD account with the new ii set up that is coming...But that isn't until mid December - and there's no relying on the oil price remaining as high as it is over the weeks in between, so better to take the profit and exit a sector that I'm not at all confident about longer-term ... and add to my cash percentage on hand.As the head of Vanguard said in an interview last week, "The correction is coming, we just don't know if it will be next week or in 2 years time, and we don't know if it will be a 'black bear' 20% or a 'brown bear' 40% correction". ! ! This man is in charge of $3.5 trillion dollars of assets, by the way, so presumably knows what he is talking about. After making this statement he was asked if he was advising customers to move into cash and his reply was, "No, not if you are taking a 10 year view, then we still see stocks as the best asset class for returns".Maybe so. Personally I'd like to sell near the top and re-buy near the bottom of any such correction in which case 'getting back to even', will happen all the more quickly. Meanwhile, I'm desperately attempting to keep 20% cash on hand and have around another 20% in AIM companies which may continue to perform, at least somewhat, despite a general across-the-board correction which will drag down all global markets.Good luck! Eadwig
gamesinvestor
24 Oct 2017
Sold For better or worse, I've taken my 36% profit somewhat rescued from a once 80% loss or some such number.Going forward? -- I haven't the foggiest with Ivan at the helm -- so with RIO gone I'm completely commodity clean at the moment and cash heavy.Cash looks like a reasonable option at the moment since every company that reports it's figures (good or bad) is being caned and some unfairly.Games
Eadwig
18 Oct 2017
Re: Copper ames, "EW - When do you plan to short or exit Glencore before the inevitable down cycle and next debt stress which Ivan looks like he's building."I don't short individual companies. I don't have an account that gives me the ability to do it. My shorts re via ETFs and tend to be indices or commodities. Not a practice I'd recommend anyone getting into lightly.I have just one tranche left in GLEN and generally happy to let it ride and take the divis, much beefed up from the nxt payment onwards.Though it looked like it was approaching @380p the other day which made me stop and think. But then I wondered what I would do with the money while I was waiting for the price to drop back to under @300p, and I didn't have any good answers. So I left it.If it hits @400p I'll probably exit anyway. We're bound to get another chance substantially lower than that, sooner or later. Ivan is broking some enormous deals with some heavy duty world players (Qatar Sov. Fund and Russian government) who have some heavy duty global and regional enemies, so who knows where all that might all end up?
Eadwig
18 Oct 2017
Re: Beagle Critical time for you now then Beagle. Probably as well to take profits and reduce exposure, especially in volatile cyclicals like this.Everyone knows there is a correction on the way, and if you're in the unhappy position of your pension pot taking its value from a single day or month and that will set the tone for your standard of living for the rest of your life, then now is a good time to be getting out. Even if you are a couple of years away, you should be withdrawing, in my humble opinion.If you think I'm talking nonsense, take a look at the FTSE 100 chart going back 25 years. In 6-12 months from now your portfolio could be worth 2/3rds of what it is right now very plausibly - its happened twice before over the last quarter century. Its just a matter of when and how much.
lewistr
18 Oct 2017
Re: Beagle Hi Beagle.I did something like sell up near retirement but you try to leave the markets alone.you keep looking at other things out there saying that looks ok then we are back in again.good luck to you, and all the best when you retire.Ps.I retired 7 years ago and this is the best game in town.
BeaglePup
18 Oct 2017
Re: Copper Well, fwiw I've decided to cash in my profits (bought at 92p) and maintain my residual interest via my holding in BRWM. Maybe I'm losing my bottle, but all this talk about China resources slowdown and market corrections have got to me when I'm 6 months off retiring, so I'm going defensive.GLA
gamesinvestor
18 Oct 2017
Re: Copper EW - When do you plan to short or exit Glencore before the inevitable down cycle and next debt stress which Ivan looks like he's building.Games
Eadwig
17 Oct 2017
Re: Copper I'm calling the Cu top at the moment, I went short using 3CHS (3x leveraged) this morning at a price of around £3.218/lb.
gamesinvestor
16 Oct 2017
Copper Is this guy calling the top :-SOLD -- 12-Oct-17 Central Asia Metals CAML Rakishev,Kenges 10,605,875 @ 2.30p £24,393,511.99Looks like he's sold half of everything he had in CAML[link]
II Editor
15 Oct 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 16/10/2017 " FTSE THIS WEEK & THE DAX (FTSE:UKX & DBI
AX) It's probably one of these uncomfortable subjects but it's become increasingly difficult to ignore what's happening in Germany. The smart money has spent October frantically shorting a market ..."[link]
gamesinvestor
15 Oct 2017
Re: RIO V GLEN - FAO LKH "You are entitled to your opinion of course. I think any fair-minded person can see a distinct correlation -"EW - I guess a fair minded view can only be concluded by making a comparison of the value of the businesses in each region.If it turns out the value in terms of turnover and profit is 75% atributable to safe regions for RIO for example and only 30% for GLEN, then and only then can you draw a fair comparison.I'm inclined to escape this stock very soon as Ivan has started potential irrational spending and that could lead to another round of unsustainable debt like last time.Closer to 400p which it is heading, looks good enough for me given the risks associated with this company and the fact the management nearly drove it into administration last time around.Games -with a negative ROCE in the last 6 years, it's no a safe haven by any means -- nor is RIO for that matter, albeit that they don't seem to be risking as much money at the present time.
gamesinvestor
13 Oct 2017
Re: 370p appears the top again (nm) Clarence, Not today it seems as it's 375.3pI keep holding on to a bit of this, although I haven't the fxggiest idea if it's a good bad or indifferent thing to be doing -- but every time I come to look at it and get rid of it it's jumped up a bit more.My intransigence seems to have paid off in a small way.Games
Eadwig
10 Oct 2017
Re: RIO V GLEN - FAO LKH LKH, "Your maps are very misleading. Superficially they suggest that the spread of both RIO's and GLEN's businesses is similar"Not my maps. RIO's and GLEN's. You are entitled to your opinion of course. I think any fair-minded person can see a distinct correlation - especially after you strip out the logistics, offices and agriculture from Glencore's worldwide map to give something close to a valid comparison in business activity.Eadwig
