II Editor
15 May 2017
NEW ARTICLE: FTSE 100 smashes record again "Writing off the FTSE 100 is a dangerous game. Time and again, market commentators and City experts have called this over-valued index of multi-nationals lower, but it keeps bouncing back. And it's just done it again.Less than four weeks ago, when ..."[link]
penhome
13 May 2017
Re: Closing price Hargreaves and Sharepad both have 285 as Friday's close
Akis1999
12 May 2017
Closing price Daily closing price is important as it is what shows on publications and sites etc. What is the closing price for GLEN today? Trades around 4:30pm were at 285. But there were subsequent trades all the way past 5pm, with higher prices. I presume these are late-logged trades which happened intra-day. So what is the truth?
Eadwig
11 May 2017
Re: Macquarie penhome,my assessment is that Macquarie are judging GLEN as the best diversified miner to hold longer term, due to a combination of quite decent dividends and capital growth ... IF their forecast of what is going to hppen in the commodity markets over the next 2.5 years or so is correct.And that's where these predictions tend to fall down. All based on assumptions, and volatile, unpredictable ones where the commodity markers are concerned, not to mention the stock market.The VIX 'fear index' is about as laid back as a a hippy on holiday, so we're probably days away from that big correction everyone has forgotten they're expecting.
Eadwig
10 May 2017
More Asset Sales (again) GLEN says it has started a sale process for its Tahmoor coking coal mine in Australia ahead of plans to halt operations next year.Glencore, which mostly mines thermal coal, said last August that Tahmoor would not meet an internal investment criteria after 2018; last year, the mine produced nearly 1.8M metric tons of coking coal, used to make steel.Trouble is, RIO have just unloaded some Aussie coal mines and have put up the rest of their mines for sale. So, not a great time to get a good price, one has to assume.It also means that GLEN reduce another revenue centre. The more they do that, the more keyed to the price of copper they will be.Losing coal from the portfolio is the way to go, longer term, of course, but, as a holder, I don't want to see them 'overweight' on Cu - or any other single commodity come to that.
penhome
09 May 2017
Re: Macquarie And your assessment of what these analysts are saying is what?
nk1999
09 May 2017
Macquarie From ADVFN:"Glencore is best-positioned among peers in terms of its commodity exposure, cost performance and potential for cash returns, analysts at Macquarie said.A global benchmarking analysis looking at ten metrics showed Glencore ranked first or second on seven of those, analysts Alon Olsha and Shai Hill said, even if Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton are best ranked historically.The shares also offer twice the potential profit growth than its peers over the next five years, the analysts said.Furthermore, Macquarie expected the outfit's commodity basket, especially zinc and copper, to show the strongest price momentum over the next three years.With $12bn in excess cash to distribute by 2019 and with management owning 15% of the firm, Glencore had both the financial wherewithal to reward shareholders and a good reason to use it, they said."
penhome
09 May 2017
Re: Chart Reboot - Correction Re-reading my analysis, I noticed that in the analysis of the H&S, I said that I had chosen Top 3 as the head. This is wrong - I chose Top 4 as the most viable candidate. This paragraph should therefore read:Recognia opted to use only tops 1, 2 and 6 whereas for me, top 4 looks the more solid head which is then flanked by multiple shoulders - a complex rather than simple H&S. My version gives a target price (from the neckline break) of around 240.The neckline placement and its suggested target of 240 on the chart is correct.Pen
penhome
09 May 2017
Longer longer term chart The multi-year chart had its left side truncated for some reason. This one shows the complete channel:[link]
penhome
09 May 2017
Chart Reboot Sorry, but I haven't been following GLEN since it broke below its consolidation zone, and yes, the gaps ended up being unhelpful but they did get filled which is a useful guide to short term price moves.Let's go back to basics and start again.Here's the weekly chart for the long term, multi-year trend:[link] shows a channel trending downwards since 2011 with lower highs and lower lows. Price held in this channel from 2011-2015 before breaking below it in 2015 and then above in early 2017. More recently it has been moving down to test both the 30 week sma (green line) and the blue dotted medium term uptrend line which started in January 2016. The 30 week ema has been penetrated so far only on an intra-week basis and weekly closes have, so far, been above the average.The February 2017 high was below the 2014 high, and price is now back below the 2015 high.Multi-year conclusion: On a weekly basis, this needs to stay above the 30 week sma (currently at around 290ish) and the blue dotted trend line. Breaking below these would take it back towards its long-term downtrend channel which is bearish.Now look at the medium term and that blue dotted uptrend in more detail on the daily chart:[link] shows price making lower highs and lower lows since March with the 50sma now falling: this is bearish.Conclusion: to maintain the January 2016 uptrend which has been weakening since March, this needs to stay above the 200sma and the blue trendline (currently both in the 260s). To show some strength, it needs to start making higher highs and higher lows which, currently, isn't happening.Looking at at the H&S pattern over the last three months, I don't think this is as clearcut as Recognia suggests. Their pattern is drawn over a left shoulder, head and a right shoulder whereas it's fairly clear that there are six tops. I've numbered these on this chart and also added Recognia's short term uptrend line:[link] opted to use only tops 1, 2 and 6 whereas for me, top 3 looks the more solid head which is then flanked by multiple shoulders - a complex rather than simple H&S. My version gives a target price (from the neckline break) of around 240.Conclusion: short term bearish unless price holds above the 200sma and the Jan 16 blue uptrend line. It has already broken below Rocognia's lower channel line and the H&S neckline.Overall conclusion: Bearish unless it holds above 290ish for weekly closes and 265ish for daily closes. If it doesn't, then the H&S gives a target of 240.These are just my own thoughts and, as frequently demonstrated, can easily be wrong.Pen
Eadwig
09 May 2017
Re: T/A says SELL.. rhino666,The Chinese government is cutting back on credit. Once you know that, its easy to predict a fall in commodity prices, especially copper.It's even harder to predict what the Chinese government will do. Probably not true, actually, but we don't tend to hear their policy announcements over here until people start looking to explain a sudden fall in copper prices or a rise in coal prices (like last year).Chinese government is my first stop from now on whenever the sector is moving.Since the spike up in copper price in Q42016 I think we can now safely say that the new trading range has a bottom of around $2.46/lb and a top of about $2.70/lb. Although there is a bit of a nasty trend downwards in Cu and we're close to the bottom of that range, I can't really see it breaking through that - not if general reports from emerging markets doing pretty well are correct.GLEN has come back a bit anyway, I think the market has realised they aren't ALL about Cu. Actually, all miners have come back today, the whole sector seems to be moving together at the moment. Probably a couple of big high frequency funds trading mining ETFs against each other or something.
rhino666
08 May 2017
Re: T/A says SELL.. Not as annoying as a fall from £3 of up to 10% a few days after my confident prediction that this share would get to £3.30 within 6 weeks. The gods are obviously against me as BT line went down last Tuesday and only back up late afternoon on Friday.Copper down hard again this morning but GLEN not reacting quite so severely at the moment.Hard to predict a fall in copper price of around 8% from the spike upwards a little over a week ago.
Clarence Beaks
04 May 2017
Re: T/A says SELL.. Tell you something, filling the gaps in TA land sure is amazing. Since filling the gaps, it's dropped 40p.... excellent.
Eadwig
04 May 2017
2017Q1 Production Report Full year 2017 Marketing EBIT guidance now $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion (previously $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion).Copper - 3% DOWN on 2016Zinc - - - 9% UP on 2016Nickel - 10% DOWN on 2016Coal - - - 4% UP on 2016Lead - - - 3% DOWN on 2016Ferrochrome 10% UP on 2016Oil - - - - 43% DOWN on 2016Selected Others:Gold - - - 20% UP on 2016Silver - - - 3% UP on 2016Cobalt- - - 9% UP on 2016Platinum - 6% UP on 2016All commodity prices except wheat were up, many substantially on the 2016 period including 82% on cobalt, 69% on ferrochrome, 65% on zinc, 60% on coal, 57% on oil, 43% on sugar, 31% on lead, 25% on cotton, 25% on copper, 21% on nickel.Production in Q1 2017 experienced some weather related impacts: Cyclone Debbie in Australia, flooding in Peru and higher than average rainfall in Congo.* Copper production of 324,100 tonnes was 3% down on Q1 2016, reflecting grade variations at Alumbrera, the zinc/copper mix at Antamina as its mine plan progresses and ore handling difficulties at Mutanda due to heavy rain. These were partly offset by an increase in production from Queensland.* Zinc production of 279,200 tonnes was 9% up on Q1 2016, mainly reflecting the mine plan sequencing at Antamina. Modest production increases in the rest of the portfolio were within expected ranges. There are currently no plans to restart idled capacity in Australia and Peru [See below and my post about sales - Eadwig]* Nickel production of 24,900 tonnes was down 10% on Q1 2016, reflecting maintenance at Murrin Murrin & Nikkelverk, partly offset by ramp-up at Koniambo.* Ferrochrome production of 439,000 tonnes was 10% up on Q1 2016, reflecting operating efficiencies and the restarting of a furnace in H2 2016.* Coal production of 30.9 million tonnes was 4% up on Q1 2016, reflecting stronger coking coal production, with the base period impacted by geological challenges, and planned ramp-ups within the Australian thermal portfolio.* We increased our stakes in Katanga and Mutanda. Both assets were already controlled subsidiaries of Glencore with production historically reported on a 100% basis, resulting in no reporting changes, following the completion of these transactions. [These Cu mines include GLEN's main Cobalt sources].* Glencore's oil entitlement interest of 1.4 million barrels was down 43% on Q1 2016, reflecting ongoing depletion in Guinea & Chad. A single-rig drilling campaign will re-commence in Chad in H2 2017.* We have agreed to sell our interests in Rosh Pinah and Perkoa, with completion expected in H2 2017, subject to customary approvals. [Approx 10% of Zinc production - Eadwig]
Eadwig
04 May 2017
T/A says SELL.. ... by the way[link] say I'd have ever spotted that particular head and shoulders - which is supposedly a sign of a trend reversal and predicting a drop over the next 3 months to around @235p
