Eadwig
17 Aug 2017
Re: GLEN Sees EVs Boosting Demand Eadwig, "I currently have sells set @345p,"Well, there goes another tranche. One left, average @286p from memory. I wont be selling that in the foreseeable. I wasn't very happy about taking @345p to be honest, but I've been stung so many times by GLEN in the past that I felt I had to be disciplined about it and trust that the volatility of the mining and commodity business will give me a chance to re-buy under @300p sooner rather than later.I'm not too bothered about missing out on the next dividend (3.5 cents from memory), but I want a nice fat holding by the dividend after that, hopefully at a price that gives a meaningful yield.
Eadwig
15 Aug 2017
A view on the coal biz Hunter Valley coal deal will add substantially to earnings and cash flow. GLEN management have been trying hard to add this asset to the portfolio and Yancoal selling an almost 50% stake to GLEN is a big win for the company, they reckon.The deal gives GLEN exclusive rights to market the product in some Asian markets like Japan and S Korea, but restricts them from some also, as I previously wrote.As the company generates considerable free cash flows, this transaction will be financed through internally generated funds. As a result, credit metrics should not be affected negatively. In fact, these assets give a reasonable surety for future growth due to an expected increased demand for quality coal and the favourable cost structure of the mine. When these assets are integrated, and if GLEN divests some of its high-cost coal assets, as previously planned, the quality of its coal portfolio will go up. This will enhance margins from the coal biz, which makes me much happier about the whole thing, assuming that is how it all plays out.The management is highlighting expected rise in EV (Electric Vehicles) as a key driver for copper demand. This will be an important avenue for demand growth, but transport has always been less than a fifth of copper demand.. In the short-medium term, demand from housing, infrastructure and new grid installation will be more important. A ban from Chinese authorities on import of scrap metal will push the demand for refined product higher, which will result in higher prices. Also, most EVs are still being powered by the electricity generated from traditional sources (Coal, Natural Gas). As a result, an increase in electric vehicles will increase demand for coal and other traditional fuels, it is anticipated. GLEN will benefit from this market dynamic as well.The outlook for GLEN's core mining business is very positive. The company expects to benefit from rising commodity prices via its Marketing division also. The division always does better in a rising price environment.Efficient cost structure and the addition of high-margin assets should push profit margins higher. Its strengthened balance sheet has positioned it nicely for future growth projects. If commodity prices remain higher, I expect GLEN to make more acquisitions in the near-future, but they will have to be careful of their debt levels and hopefully Ivan is running a few stress test scenarios before splashing out.Their credit rating is still only Baa2, which is a low-medium rating. GLEN's own target was to keep the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below 2x. The company is achieving this target comfortably, but shouldn't forget too much debt took it to the brink in the near past. Getting that rating up and enjoying much cheaper financing as a result might not be the worst idea in the world, in my humble opinion. I wouldn't mind seeing them withdraw from all crude oil production too, going forward. Coal is enough involvement with fossil fuels, I reckon, and the very small oil production biz is going nowhere off the coast of Africa.
Eadwig
15 Aug 2017
Strong Buy Signal Martin Gilbert, Non Executive Director, bought 50,000 shares in the company on the 10th August 2017 at a price of 338.00p...
Eadwig
15 Aug 2017
GLEN Sees EVs Boosting Demand Buy on pullback. I've been buying @280p. but going to raise that to @299p. Glen's full dividend policy kicks in next year, which will only make it more attractive. I currently have sells set @345p, intending to trade the position continually. I'll always retain one tranche, and go a maximum of four. I currently hold two.CEO Ivan Glasenberg expects electric car demand to boost the need for copper and the company’s other key metals.GLEN reported strong first-half results, supported by higher commodities prices, it raised its full-year earnings guidance by $100m to $2.4-$2.7Bn. GLEN expects the electric car revolution to boost demand for copper and the company’s other key metals.“With higher commodity prices, our marketing business does perform better, more arbitrage opportunities exist,” CEO Ivan Glasenberg said on a conference call, noting that demand for commodities looks strong and new supply appears limited.Copper prices have surged more than 15 percent since the beginning of the year, and many analysts have an optimistic outlook for the red metal for the rest of 2017. In particular, analysts agree that copper demand from electric cars is expected to soar in the next decade.That’s because while cars using internal combustion engines require up to 23Kg of copper each, a hybrid electric vehicle uses 40kg of copper. Pure electric vehicle (EVs) require more copper per vehicle than traditional vehicles also.The diversified miner seems to be well positioned to take advantage of rising EV demand, as it is a top producer of copper, cobalt and nickel, all of which are key components of green technology.“The potential large-scale roll-out of electric vehicles and energy storage systems looks set to unlock material new sources of demand for enabling underlying commodities, including copper, cobalt, zinc and nickel,” Glasenberg said.In fact, recent research conducted by IDTech for the International Copper Association indicates that copper demand for electric cars and buses will jump from 185,000 tonnes in 2017 to 1.74 million tonnes in 2027.Earlier this year, Glencore upped its involvement in the copper and cobalt markets by paying $960 million to increase its stakes in Mutanda Mining and Katanga Mining, both in the Congo, the top-producing cobalt country.Paul Gait at Bernstein, which has assigned Glencore an “outperform” rating, said the company is almost uniquely positioned in terms of exposure to the electric vehicle market. “Today’s results strengthen our view on the stock,” he said.
Clarence Beaks
11 Aug 2017
BUY < 280p SELL > 340p Seems to be the trend here. 340p hit 3 times only to fall back again. good trading stock I'm beginning to learn with Glen.Think broker 400p targets way off reality but admittedly a 12 month view normally.
Clarence Beaks
11 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding more like a collapse now from 346. Keeps doing this.
maerskcon1
10 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding Pull back because markets are down.
Clarence Beaks
10 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding pull back on results.
Clarence Beaks
10 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding very predictable it was going to topple back down. Hope you all got your shorts on above 340p+, 3 time its failed to hold it.
Clarence Beaks
09 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding Why, what you expecting tomorrow then?
lewistr
08 Aug 2017
Re: Still holding Lets see what happens Thursday.
Clarence Beaks
08 Aug 2017
Still holding maybe now 344p has been breached and held, it might push up higher but I wont count my chickens as yet
Eadwig
27 Jul 2017
Re: Today's RNS jaytee41,yes, I know what you mean. I can't say I'm happy about it myself, but I believe the operations are next door to GLEN's current coal operations so there will be economies of scale.I thought a deal with RIO was off, and at one point GLEN was talking about selling this resource itself, but, there we go. RIO sold it to Yancoal and GLEN are now buying into tht deal and even helping finance it.There must be profit to be made in the short-medium term at least. Yancoal only get to sell into China though, it appears, but India and plenty of other countries in the region still need coal to power electricity generation as well as steel making etc for years to come. One has to expect political intervention against coal at some point though. [No one talks about 'clean coal' any more have you noticed? What a fantasy that term was, used to extend the life of many a coal producer in places like USA].Considering the price, and the efforts by GLEN to reduce their debt after near disaster, then:RIO, a competitor, have reduced their debt and got rid of the potential millstone of coalGLEN have taken that risk on and paid more for it than they originally bidYancoal are laughing all the way to the bank, considering at one point it appeared the deal was off because they couldn't raise the cash [that's me reading between the lines, no official reason for the delay in raising the money was ever given that I know of. The delay itself added 100m to the price, I seem to remember].
Eadwig
27 Jul 2017
Re: Sold @335p rhino666,I also sold a tranche @299p and quite a while ago sold a tranche at a loss @265p (I think it was, or similar) when I needed to raise cash for another trade and GLEN looked like it had topped out after multi-year highs a little above the sell price.I cannot see Cu staying this high, although I'm guessing it must be technically close to a 'breakout' which could move it onto another range of trading level at which it may stay for some time, as it did when it finally broke out above $2.00-$2.30/lb.I'm not sure how much the GLEN price is due to the price of copper. It moves the needle on other miners more, but of course they're in the same sector so GLEN gains by that to some extent soon. Some of the rise may be people following through on the latest rash of news on EVs, which don't just use more copper, but also require cobalt for batteries, which leads them straight to GLEN. Manganese and Nickel too.I must say, it is giving me a wave of nostalgia each time I log in and see the Cu price up near the $3.00 mark (its around £2.90/lb as I type actually). A lot of it is to do with the weak dollar though, which is even weak against GBP which can't gain on the Polish Zloty despite the parliament verging on incurring 'sanctions' from the EU by removing democratic checks and balances, and this in the face of the EU paying for huge chunks of (badly needed) new infrastructure across the country. Very noticeable that the new roads are very much an extension of motorways travelling from west to east across Germany.Road improvements travelling north south in Poland are down to private companies and toll roads - German logistics companies don't need those so much. (cynical Eadwig).So, it doesn't say much for the GB pound - or the chances the market is allowing for a rate rise at the beginning of August. I still think that might happen, but I'm guessing I'm in the minority. The UK has been unbelievably lucky to have had this disruption during a period of low and declining oil prices. CPI Inflation may yet stay below 4%, which is still way too high considering most index linked pensions are actually linked to RPI which is about 1% higher than CPI, many of the people paying taxes to pay those pensions are having their wages frozen or rises capped at 1%, and savers are struggling to get a 1% return on savings, even when tying cash up for a year.I'm very inclined to put a short on copper in the $2.90s, but another speech from Trump like the one he gave to the boy scouts the other day could see the USD lose 2 or 3 % against other currencies in no time at all. I wonder if that is why he is doing it? He surely can't be that stupid and stayed so rich all this time? He has maybe realised trade wars aren't a good idea, but a weak dollar will help US manufacturers and exporters.Which, ironically, is just more of the 'race to the bottom' policy central banks have been pursuing around the globe - all part of the 'old' way of thinking. I'm not sure Trump has actually made any difference directly yet, has he? In infrastructure and spending and therefore miners benefiting specifically? The only surprise is that the markets actually geared up in expectation, which is why, until now recently, there has been a general downward pressure on miners and commodity prices. That's my reading of the situation, anyway.
jaytee41
27 Jul 2017
Today's RNS HI,I'm surprised that the price is still steady after this mornings RNS. Maybe I've misread something.
