MikeyAdmin
24 Feb 2020
Opening Prices FTSE100 . . .7,403.92 . (-32.72) . (-0.44%) Brent Crude . . . $57.62 . (-1.18) . (-2.01%) GKP . . . 76,535 @ 181.8p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FTSE100 . . . 7,265.54 . (-138.38) . (-1.87%) Brent Crude . . . $56.30 . (-1.64) . (-2.83%) . . . (15mins delayed) OP . . . 9,791 @ 179p 15,000 @179, 178 & 174p x 2, 2,000 @ 177p, 1,900 @ 166p on the Bid = 63,900 3,000 @ 180p, 20,000 @ 189, 190 & 195p, 25,000 @ 195 & 206p, 16,000 @ 199p, 40,000 @ 210 & 218p, 12,000 @ 249p on the Ask = 221,000 Book at c. 8.03am 156,015-----332,002 30-----42 Down to 178p possibly lower to 176p today
ValueSeeker8
24 Feb 2020
Oil Slides While Gold Heads to $1,700 as Virus Rocks Commodities (Bloomberg) – Renewed fears that the coronavirus will harm global growth rocked commodity markets again on Monday, with oil and metals prices tumbling while gold soared toward $1,700 an ounce amid a global flight to haven assets. As the deadly virus spreads more widely outside China, raising the threat of a global pandemic, finance chiefs and central bankers from the world’s largest economies said they see downside risks to the world economy persisting. That’s spurring fresh alarm in commodity markets that had started to recover from lows hit earlier in the month when China’s virtual shutdown threw supply chains into chaos. With the International Monetary Fund cutting its global growth forecast and warning that it’s also looking at more “dire†scenarios, investors are concerned that risks to raw material demand are worsening. “With the volatility we’re seeing in the coronavirus event, that’s creating angst in the market on the back of growth and demand expectations and we’ve seen oil prices weaken,†said David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “The converse of that is the same event is carrying investors toward a safe haven play and that’s gold.†Oil led the losses in early Asian trade on Monday morning, tumbling more than 3% in London and New York. Until Friday, Brent crude had been in the longest run of gains in more than a year thanks to Chinese fiscal stimulus and new threats to supplies from Africa and Latin America. Industrial commodities are also getting hit hard, with copper sliding 1.3% on the London Metal Exchange and rubber tumbling more than 2% in Singapore. Agricultural commodities weren’t spared, with U.S. wheat leading losses. The declines reflect a broader market sell-off as the spread of coronavirus cases outside China spooks investors. U.S. equity futures sank with Asian shares from Seoul to Sydney, while the Australian dollar retreated along with the offshore yuan. South Korea said it had 161 additional virus cases, along with two more deaths, to bring the total death toll there to seven. The nation earlier raised its infectious-disease alert to the highest level after a 20-fold increase in cases. The situation in Europe was also escalating, with Austria halting a train from Italy on concern there were two infected passengers on board. Italy – now the virus’s epicenter on the continent – canceled the Venice Carnival (NYSE:CCL) and other events amid a rising case load. As they flee riskier assets, investors are searching for safety, sending gold prices to fresh 7-year highs as bonds and Treasury futures also advance. Bullion prices have taken off this year, rising almost 10%, as concerns over the virus deepened and speculation mounted that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy if the global impact worsens. “The spread of the Covid-19 to Italy and South Korea is threatening the rebounds in asset prices and that fear is driving gold prices higher,†said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. “Upward momentum is strong and interest in gold is set to remain high until the situation abates.†The havoc wreaked by the virus in China is a stark warning for investors as it spreads outside Asia. Oil demand in the world’s biggest importer collapsed as Beijing restricted travel and shut down factories, prompting refineries to close, stockpiles to swell and shippers seek to divert cargoes elsewhere. The world’s biggest oil producers have foundered. The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia has struggled to agree on a collective response, dropping the idea of an early emergency gathering amid opposition from Russia. Buyers of liquefied natural gas have been trying to get out of their contracts, with demand so bad that empty ships have been lining up in Qatar, the world’s biggest seller. Copper smelters have been forced to cut production, while containers full of frozen meat have piled up at Chinese ports because of a lack of truck drivers. Beijing is now pushing for people to get back to work, loosening the criteria for factories to resume operations, as it tries to find a balance between containing the virus and preventing a slump in the world’s second-largest economy. But it’s contagion outside China that’s now spooking markets. “The coronavirus situation looks like it’s stabilizing in China, but now we’re getting pockets of it elsewhere, and that’s a concern,†said Lennox of Fat Prophets. “Geographically as more pockets of it appear, there’s going to be people who have escaped those pockets and gone elsewhere, and they create another pocket. And that’s what investors are worried about. It’s like a ripple effect outward.†image.png581x640 33.4 KB Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
ValueSeeker8
23 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments MikeyAdmin: To rely on the calculations please check copy & correct then paste corrected post I shan’t be bothered, because its already done: ValueSeeker8: September Cost recovery = $360,000 X 45.6543 = $16,435,548 September Profit oil = $162,000 X 45.6543 = $7,395,996.6 September Contractor pay = $23,831,544.6 GKP payment = 0.8 X $23,831,544.6 = $19,065,235.68 May I remind you that it costs money to extract oil and process it to export standards. Currently it’s circa $4 per barrel. This means that GKP and MOL had to spend circa $4,440,000 in order to produce 1,110,000. Since GKP WI = 80%, then the cost to GKP is $3,552,000. And given that GKP’s net payment is $15.8 m, out of which is a $13,148,438.4 payment via the cost recovery route (capex recovery). This means that GKP received $2,651,561.6 via the profit oil rout! This is not enough to cover the extraction cost (opex recovery)!! Meaning that, operationally, GKP made a loss of $900,438.4 during September 2019!!! I shall leave at that. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
MikeyAdmin
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments To rely on the calculations please check copy & correct then paste corrected post
ValueSeeker8
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments MikeyAdmin: $45,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $41,080,770 $45,654,399 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $41,088,870 not $41,080,770
MikeyAdmin
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments My Apologies Based on a split of 30—70% of Profit Oil $45,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $41,080,770 $41,080,770 x 40% = $16,432,308 Cost Recovery divided by Working Interest $41,080,770 x 60% = $24,648,462 Profit Oil divided by 30–70% split $16,432,308 Cost Recovery equates to GKP receiving $13,145,846.4 and MOL receiving $3,286,461.6 The KRG gets 70% of the Profit Oil, $24,648,462 x 70% = $17,253,923.4 GKP & MOL get 30% of the Profit Oil, $24,648,462 x 30% = $7,394,538.6 MOL gets 20% of the Profit Oil and 20% of the Cost Recovery $7,394,538.6 x 20% = $1,478,907.72 + $3,286,461.6 Cost Recovery = $4,765,369.32 GKP Pays the 40% Capacity Building Tax on its Profit Oil $7,394,538.6 x 80% = $5,915,630.88 x 40% = $2,366,252.35 Capacity Tax Payment. $7,394,538.6 - $2,366,252.35 = $5,028,286.25 is GKP Share of the Profit Oil $5,028,286.25 + $13,145,846.4 = $18,174,132.65 Based on a split of 15—85% of Profit Oil $45,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $41,080,770 $41,080,770 x 40% = $16,432,308 Cost Recovery divided by Working Interest $41,080,770 x 60% = $24,648,462 Profit Oil divided by 30–70% split $16,432,308 Cost Recovery equates to GKP receiving $13,145,846.4 and MOL receiving $3,286,461.6 The KRG gets 85% of the Profit Oil, $24,648,462 x 85% = $20,951,192.7 GKP & MOL get 15% of the Profit Oil, $24,648,462 x 15% = $3,697,269.3 MOL gets 20% of the Profit Oil and 20% of the Cost Recovery $3,697,269.3 x 20% = $739,453,86 + $3,286,461.6 Cost Recovery = $4,025,915.46 GKP Pays the 40% Capacity Building Tax on its Profit Oil $3,697,269.3 x 80% = $2,957,815.44 x 40% = $1,183,126.18 Capacity Tax Payment. $2,957,815.44 - $1,183,126.18 = $1,774,689.26 is GKP Share of the Profit Oil after paying the Capacity Building Tax $1,774,689.26 + $13,145,846.4 = $14,920,535.66 Without knowing the exact Profit Oil Split it is hard to progress my calculations any further, but it’s safe to say that it’s closer to a 15—85% split than a 30—70% split, so probably around a 20—80% split. I’ll try and get it closer another time
ValueSeeker8
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments The value I calculated is $45,654,300 not $54,654,300.
MikeyAdmin
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments Based on @ValueSeeker8 September amounts of Oil x Brent - 20+% the following are based a) on a 30% 70% and a 15% 85% split of Profit Oil [link] $54,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $5,465,430 = $49,188,870 $49,188,870 is then split 40% Cost Recovery and 60% Profit Oil $49,188,870 x 40% = $19,675,548 Cost Recovery which is Split 80% to GKP and 20% to MOL $49,188,870 x 60% = $29,513,322 Profit Oil. $29,513,322 Profit Oil is split 30% to GKP & MOL and 70% to the KRG $29,513,322 Profit Oil x 70% = $20,659,325.4 is the KRG’s Share of the Profit Oil $29,513,322 Profit Oil x 30% = $8,853,996.6 is Shared on the WI Basis between GKP & MOL $8,853,996.6 x 80% = $7,083,197,28 is GKP’s Share of the Profit Oil. $8,853,996.6 x 20% = $1,770,799.32 is MOL’s Share of the Profit Oil. ($49,188,870 x 40% = $19,675,548 Cost Recovery which is Split 80% to GKP and 20% to MOL) $19,675,548 x 20% = $3,935,109.6 is MOL’s Cost Recovery $19,675,548 x 80% = $15,740,438.4 is GKP’s Cost Recovery MOL’s $1,770,799.32 Profit Oil plus $3,935,109.6 = $5,705,908.9 GKP’s $7,083,197,28 share of the Profit Oil is subject to a 40% Capacity Building Tax $7,083,197,28 x 40% = $2,282,363.57 is the amount of the Capacity Building Tax GKP has to Pay $7,083,197,28 minus $2,282,363.57 = $4,249,918.37 One can then add to the $4,249,918.37 GKP’s 80% share of the Cost Recovery $4,249,918.37 + $15,740,438.4 = $19,990,356.77 My Calculations using a Profit Oil Split of 15% GKP & MOL and 85% KRG $54,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $5,465,430 = $49,188,870 $49,188,870 is then split 40% Cost Recovery and 60% Profit Oil $49,188,870 x 40% = $19,675,548 Cost Recovery which is Split 80% to GKP and 20% to MOL $49,188,870 x 60% = $29,513,322 Profit Oil. $29,513,322 Profit Oil split 15% to GKP & MOL and 85% to the KRG $29,513,322 Profit Oil x 85% = $25,086,323.7 is the KRG’s Share of the Profit Oil $29,513,322 Profit Oil x 15% = $4,426,998.3 is Shared on the WI Basis between GKP & MOL $4,426,998.3 x 80% = $3,541,598.64 is GKP’s Share of the Profit Oil. $4,426,998.3 x 20% = $885,399.66 is MOL’s Share of the Profit Oil. ($49,188,870 x 40% = $19,675,548 Cost Recovery which is Split 80% to GKP and 20% to MOL) $19,675,548 x 20% = $3,935,109.6 is MOL’s Cost Recovery $19,675,548 x 80% = $15,740,438.4 is GKP’s Cost Recovery MOL’s $885,399.66 Profit Oil + $3,935,109.6 Cost Recovery = $4,820,509,26 GKP’s $3,541,598.64 share of the Profit Oil is subject to a 40% Capacity Building Tax $3,541,598.64 x 40% = $1,416,639.46 is the amount of the Capacity Building Tax GKP has to Pay $3,541,598.64 minus $1,416,639.46 = $2,124,959.18 One can then add to the GKP $2,124,959.18 Profit Oil to GKP’s 80% share of the Cost Recovery $2,416,639.46 + $15,740,438.4 = $18,157,077.86
MikeyAdmin
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments Another set of figures that can change the outcome is my use of the Profit Oil split of 30% GKP & MOL and 70% KRG. If those figures are 15% GKP & MOL and 85% KRG or any where inbetween the two outer limits than they would change to outcome.
MikeyAdmin
22 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments @ValueSeeker8 I have followed the following Shaikan PSC Summary of terms Shaikan Production Sharing Contract to the letter to arrive at my calculations, so in my opinion your starting figure of $45.6543 million can be the only wrong number So may I suggest that you use your figures of :- Total oil production = 30 X 37,000 = 1.11 million barrels GKP crude oil price = $62.83 -$21.7 = $41.13 per barrel Total value of September oil = 1.11 X 41.13 = $45.6543 million And by using the same Shaikan PSC Summary of terms Shaikan Production Sharing Contract figures taken from September 2018 Presentation, you work out GKP Share of the Initial Production Oil in Dollars, showing your workings in a same format I have used. Screencast.com 2020-02-22_1620 Shared from Screencast.com
ValueSeeker8
21 Feb 2020
Transactions in Own Shares RNS - Transaction in Own Shares Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
ValueSeeker8
21 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments The KRG never respected the terms of the PSC. Let us examine the September 2019 payment received in 03/02/2020 as an example: Total oil production = 30 X 37,000 = 1.11 million barrels GKP crude oil price = $62.83 -$21.7 = $41.13 per barrel Total value of September oil = 1.11 X 41.13 = $45.6543 million If I apply what you said in your post then: September Cost recovery = $360,000 X 45.6543 = $16,435,548 September Profit oil = $162,000 X 45.6543 = $7,395,996.6 September Contractor pay = $23,831,544.6 GKP payment = 0.8 X $23,831,544.6 = $19,065,235.68 What the payment actually was $15.8 million That is $2.265 million short compared to the method you outlined in your post Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
MikeyAdmin
21 Feb 2020
Closing Prices Close . . . . 185.40 Open . . . . 185.00 High . . . . .185.00 . . . 08.00.03 . . UT Low . . . . . 179.40 . . . 15.45.58 . . AT MD Auc . . 69 @ 182.6p LSE Vols . . . . 713,159 . . . 377 trades AT trades . . . 267 . . 70.82% . OT trades . . . 110 . . . 16.04.03 CP . . . 76,535 @ 181.8p FTSE100 . . .7,403.92 . (-32.72) . (-0.44%) Brent Crude . . . $57.62 . (-1.18) . (-2.01%) . . (15mind delayed)
MikeyAdmin
21 Feb 2020
Contractors Costs/Capex Recovery & CB Tax Payments Based on the R-Factor Chart in the January 2020 Presentation below are my calculations. Contractors Cost/Capex RecoveryToday 15:45 Taking a figure of $1,000,000, by using the R-Factor one should be able to calculate how much Capex GKP is recovering each month. So below is my go at calculating how much Cost Recovery GKP is getting back per $1m Payment $1,000,000 - 10% KRG Royalty = $900,000 $900,000 is split 40% Cost Recovery $360,000 . . . 60% Profit Oil $540,000 The Profit Oil $540,000 is then split 30% GKP & MOL and 70% to the KRG $540,000 x 30% = $162,000 The $360,000 Cost Recovery is divided along Working Interest line which equates to $288,000 GKP and $72,000 to MOL The $360,000 Cost recovery Oil is then added to the $162,000 = $522,000 which is split as per Working Interest of 80—20 $522,000 x 80—20 = $417,600 GKP and $104,400 MOL Of the $417,600 per $1m GKP receives, $288,000 is Cost Recovery and $129,600 gains under the Working Interest split of 80% GKP —20% MOL As the Working Interest split is made up from what is termed as Profit Oil, if GKP is liable on a monthly Basis to pay a Capacity Building Tax of 40%, then in every $1,000,000 of Production which gains GKP a Profit Oil Payment of $129,600, GKP would be liable to pay $129,600 x 40% = $51,840. So on a hypothetical Payment of $15,000,000 to GKP, that would equate to a Payment of $777,600 per month Capacity Building Tax to the KRG $51,840 per $1,000,000 equates to a 5.184% Payment per month To rely on the calculations please check and copy & paste to correct
MikeyAdmin
21 Feb 2020
Level 2 Also, PEEL are buying via OT trades and WINS are the only OT trader amongst the DMM’s so WINS buys via AT’s and sells them to PEEL
