Nelly
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update MikeyAdmin: Geez guys. We’ve been given the figures by GKP . . so why not just except them as correct instead of performing a biopsy over every cent . LOL have to say that’s bloody hilarious coming from the oracle who has spent every single day for the past 11 years posting up thousands upon thousands of posts on numerous forums under his various identities about every single buy or sell or dirty market conspiracy theory that for any ‘normal person’ would be nigh on impossible to have dreamt up icky thump and welcome to the world of mickey its 24/7 and he’s still living the dream
ValueSeeker8
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update MikeyAdmin: that Payments are paid 3 months in arrears from when GKP Invoices the MNR From which point of the month @MikeyAdmin?: 1- If it is from the beginning of the month, then 01/10/2019 to 01/01/ 2020 is 3 months. 2- If it is from the middle of the month to the middle of the month then 15/10/2019 to 16/01/2020 is 3 months 3- If it is from end of the month to the end of the month, then 30/10/2019 to 31/01/2020 is 3 months. What have we got: NONE OF THE ABOVE Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update My understanding from the Payment Agreement is, that Payments are paid 3 months in arrears from when GKP Invoices the MNR
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Level 2 Close . . . . 185.60 Open . . . . 185.00 High . . . . .187.36 . . . . . 08.01.38 . . OT Low . . . . . 180.6622 . . . 08.31.20 . . OT MD Auc . . No UT Full 221,819----254,744 41----38 LSE Vols . . . . 477,248 . . . 284 trades AT trades . . . 218 OT trades . . . 66 Spread 185.6----186 . . . Mid 185.8p
ValueSeeker8
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update MikeyAdmin: Now we have until the end of February for the October payment to arrive No @MikeyAdmin, ignoring the 2 months delay (which shouldn’t be the case), Oct should have been paid for in Jan, Spt in Dec and Aug in Nov; remember! The payment for November 2019 should be due in a week’s time (10/02/2020) as the understanding that payments should be made on the 10th of the month the are due. I read that somewhere, but I can’t remember where. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update I’m just happy that we’ve got the September payment. Now we have until the end of February for the October payment to arrive
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update @ValueSeeker8 . . then contact GKP and tell them they’ve been short changed or query the payment with them
ValueSeeker8
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update MikeyAdmin: performing a biopsy over every cent . . @MikeyAdmin, the difference is a huge $1.2 m (at least) not 1 cent.
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update Geez guys. We’ve been given the figures by GKP . . so why not just except them as correct instead of performing a biopsy over every cent . .
ValueSeeker8
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update MikeyAdmin: August on 39.3bpd production and September Production was down 2.3bpd at 37bpd @MikeyAdmin, Gkp produced (31 X 39,269 
1,217,339 barrels and the Spt/Aug production ratio = 1,110,000/1,217,339 = 0.9118; i.e. September’s production was less than 9% lower than that of August. On the other hand, Brent was a low $59.04 compared to September’s $62.83; Spt/Aug price ratio = $41.13/$37.34 = 1.1015; i.e. September’s Shaikan price was more than 10% higher. Therfore: September payment / August payment = 0.9118 X 1.1015 = 1.004 The above equation proves that September’s payment should be even higher than that of August’s! @theoryman, mathematically, that is covered by point 3? Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update $21.7 million ($17.0 million net to GKP) for August on 39.3bpd production and September Production was down 2.3bpd at 37bpd
theoryman
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update VS8, I think there is another possibility. Every year we get a payments to KRG RNS which detail the cash or in kind payments that GKP have to make as part of the innermost detail of the PSC. They do not detail in which month the payments are made, just the total for the year in each subsection. It might be that September production just happened to be when one or more of those payments had to be made.
theoryman
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update Mikey, a couple of points. “I expected around a $20m joint payment so it’s inline with my expectations.†Have you got your workings readily to hand? VS8 and BroadfordBay would have even higher figures than I have and I have it circa 7% down. Secondly, why would the shutdown of PF-1 have an EXTRA effect on the payment expected, given that it would already be accounted for in the production figure for that month?
MikeyAdmin
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update @ValueSeeker8 I do believe there was a few days downtime on PF1 during September for when GKP did some upgrading, which may account for the amount of money received
ValueSeeker8
03 Feb 2020
Shaikan Payment Update @MikeyAdmin , comparing July 2019 payment with September 2019 suggests that the net payment for September 2019 should be higher than that for July 2019 because of the larger volume of oil produced during September compared to July. The daily production for July was 34,641 bopd while for September it was 37,000 bopd, therefore: July total production = 31 X 34,641 = 1,073,871 barrels Sept total production = 30 X 37,000 = 1,110,000 barrels thus, (Sept production / July production) = 1.0336437 According to statista, the monthly average Brent prices for 2019 is: image.png704x430 7.33 KB and according to GKP documentation the discount to Brent = $21.70, therefore: Average price for Shaikan crude oil in July = $63.92 - $21.7 = $42.22 per barrel Average price for Shaikan crude oil in Sept = $62.83 - $21.7 = $41.13 per barrel thus, (Sept price / July price) = 0.9741828 Given that the working interest and PSC terms are exactly the same for both months, then the (Sept net payment/July net payment) ratio must be equal to (Sept gross revenue/July Gross revenue) ratio. or: (Sep payment / July payment) = 1.0336437 X 0.9741828 = 1.007 The above equation clearly proves that the September net payment should be higher than the July net payment which was $16.8 m. Yet, GKP received only $15.8 m for September production! Mathematically there is only three possibilities: 1- that statista figures regarding average monthly Brent prices. Highly unlikely. 2- that GKP was economic with the truth when it told the world in its January presentation that the September production rate was 37,000 bopd (if it was meant for the whole 30 days of September). Not too far fetched as GKP told many porkies before. 3- that the MNR has paid less than they should. Very possible! who can prove otherwise!? Best Regards @ValueSeeker8
