elliottsilverman
15 Dec 2015
"In a short statement released on Wednesday, the group added once the cash return is completed, it intends to cancel its listing on AIM as it will not have any assets under its control." By Daniel Cancian | Sharecast
thirty fifty twenty
09 Nov 2015
at 93p bid approved ,3mths to 98p CASH EGM today passed bid proposal.so as per documents 98p within 3 mthsa further c.2p maybe within 12 mthsand the rump PLC with tax losses whatever value that might have.All INHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top5
thirty fifty twenty
02 Nov 2015
at 92p follow the money! great to se the large value of director buys,and the steady price rise...market is now confident of the deal going through - so that is 98p within 3 mths ( 107% return in itself),PLUS the remaining 2p+ to get within say 12mths,PLUS any residual value in the PLC company with significant tax losses running to tens of millions.could turn out very interesting, and in the meantime, a very low risk 3 month return.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top 5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
23 Oct 2015
more director buys at 90p 2 directors buy 1 million shares at 90p!I think they expect the deal to complete!!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
20 Oct 2015
director buy at 87p John Rennocks more of less doubled his shareholding today to 75,000 shares at 87p.JR is non exec chairman for 2 other companies - Diploma and Inmarsat.Both has very good long term business track records, and share price performance,and he has been non exec roles c/man at both for several years.as far as I can see he has had the same shareholding in both DPLM and ISAT for 6 years,so he has a 'buy and hold' policy!!so even though these business have been very very successful he has not significantly increased his holding - yet when GKO announces a done deal bid he doubles his holding.....All , a guestimate but I think is a huge vote of confidence that a reputable and 'conservative investor' buys at a 12% discount to bid value for 4 months return.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
20 Oct 2015
at 88p thoughts on the 100p bid.... As noted previously from the 'information between the lines'the bid has gone ahead,and their neat accounting has reduced CGT liability such that there will be 100p CASH returned - looks like 98p within 3 months of mid November completion and probably a bit longer to wind up affairs to pay out remaining CASH.Like many posters it been a roller coaster ride,took nerves to buy at the lows,but has given good rewards.the current 98p seems a little harsh,little doubt deal to complete, the 2 directors have been looked after well,so now in their interest as well to be run as part of a state fund.don't expect much price mvt until AGM vote after that to 94p,then possible a penny a month until CASH rec'd in Feb.that's a decent looking return in current markets.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top5 hldgs
r21442
20 Oct 2015
IC view on the sale The board of Greenko (GKO: 87p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, has signed a sale agreement with the government of Singapore (GIC) for the disposal of all of the company's shares in Greenko Mauritius for a gross cash consideration of £162.8m. Net of transaction fees the board plans to make an initial capital return to shareholders of 98p a share within three months of completion of the transaction, and a further 2p a share by way of a members winding up of the company. The total payout is 100p, or £159m. Shareholders will be given the opportunity to vote on the transaction at an EGM on 9 November and a 50 per cent majority is required for the deal to proceed. Completion is then expected sometime in November.To recap, both GIC and Global Environment Emerging Markets Fund III LP hold shares in Greenko Mauritius which can be exchanged for ordinary shares in the company with effect from 1 July 2015. If converted this would lead to Greenko's existing ordinary shareholders being significantly diluted. I explained the implications of a dilutive share issue in early summer when the share price was 55p ('A slick investment', 25 June 2015). I last updated the investment case when the price was 80p and recommended holding onto the shares at the time (‘Four small caps with further to go’, 10 September 2015).Admittedly, Greenko’s shares have endured a roller coaster ride since I initiated coverage at 138p ('Buy signal flashing green', 18 March 2013). Having hit a high of 180p at the end of September 2014, the share price fell steadily thereafter and I subsequently downgraded my view to hold at 104p after it became apparent that the operational progress of the company was being undermined by its capital structure ('Small cap updates', 31 March 2015). In particular, the guaranteed minimum protective returns offered by Greenko to both GIC and Global Environment Emerging Markets Fund III LP when the company raised development funding, coupled with constraints on raising fresh capital, meant that the equity share of the two investment groups in Greenko was in effect spiralling upwards at the expense of other shareholders.A sensible compromise In my view, this looks like the best compromise that can be reached, albeit shareholders are being offered an exit from their investment at a much lower price than the company was being valued at 12 months ago. The flip side being that the operational progress made this year has been behind what had been predicted. Moreover, with Greenko’s shares trading on a bid-offer spread of 86/5p to 87p, I would expect the discount to the 100p proposed cash return to narrow once shareholders vote the sale through as I anticipate will happen. In effect, they have little choice because if they were to reject the proposals, the company’s share price would collapse and in turn this would enable both GIC and Global Environment Emerging Markets to immediately exchange their investments in Greenko Mauritius for an even larger share of the company’s equity.So although the investment has not worked out as I had planned, I would recommend voting for the disposal and continue to hold Greenko’s shares as I firmly expect the share price to rise to around 100p before the end of this year. Hold.
thirty fifty twenty
30 Sep 2015
at 68p info between the lines results out today and I think make it more likely the bid will go ahead....1 - they say talks at advanced stage2 - they expect to update in near future (not, when more information etc...)3 - the losses on the convertible means that there will be less CGT to pay4 - the fall out last week to 60-62p seems a typical shakeout in a news vacuum5 - background for wind and hydro in india is very favourable and India Gvt has increased target 6 -the statement has less detail than previous statements from GKO.. to me this indicates why bother with detail - we will be a private company soon7 - the $500m bond price is now 10% higher than when deal announced8 - and perhaps most convincing..... the talks are at an advantaged stage but not certain... so why release the interims today. well they had to b/c it is the last day per IAM rules. so surely with this in mind they would have being forcing and 'in or out' deadline to talks over the last few weeks....?the market seem to agree with the price now at 70p albeit on smaller volumesAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my top5 hldgs
farmerdave
28 Sep 2015
Re: at 68p - be greedy or afraid? The agreement is non binding and most em valuations are going through the floor - I have no other info but could they be renegotiating ? Indian wind and water assets hit hard by EM valns...FD
thirty fifty twenty
28 Sep 2015
at 68p - be greedy or afraid? WOW - a bid on the table from a Sovereign Fund at 115p less taxes (est at 20p),and yet the price falls steadily from 80p to 68p......the bonds are up 10% and re-rated upw3ards by Fitch and S&P!The market is rarely wrong, and if the deal falls through GKO will be back down to 40p,and probably need a rescue rights issue.....I nervously sold some at 76p - b/c I was scared to lose my gains....I am now pondering if its a great opportunity to dabble ....mostly based on the very strong Bond price - it has risen steadily by over 10% to 105 over the past 4 weeks and Fitch + S7P have both put GKO on upward watch.At 500m there is more liquidity in the bonds and of course there are many insiders in the equity not able to trade, so its low volume trades from PI's influencing the price......it's risky - but then GKO has always been a volatile share - any other views?All IMHO, DYOR + BoLGKO is in my portfolio
r21442
10 Sep 2015
Further IC update The board of Greenko (GKO:80p), the Indian developer, owner and operator of clean energy projects, have signed non-binding heads of terms with the government of Singapore (GIC) for the sale of all of the company's shares in Greenko Mauritius for a gross cash consideration of approximately £162.8m, a sum worth 104p a share. Both GIC and Global Environment Emerging Markets Fund III LP hold shares in Greenko Mauritius which are capable of being exchanged for ordinary shares in the company with effect from 1 July 2015. If converted this would lead to Greenko's existing ordinary shareholders being significantly diluted. I outlined the implications in detail of a dilutive share issue in early summer when the share price was 55p ('A slick investment', 25 June 2015).The fact that a compromise deal has been reached is clearly positive given that negative sentiment was damaging, but there is still uncertainty as to the scale of the likely payout for shareholders in Greenko. That's because subject to shareholder approval, Greenko is in effect proposing to sell its ownership interest in the underlying business so will become a vehicle just holding cash. Should the disposal go ahead, the proceeds, net of certain Indian taxation, transaction fees and running costs, as yet to be finalised, will be returned to Greenko's shareholders as a final capital return. However, until Greenko provides greater clarity, at this stage it's impossible to quantify these likely costs. Expect news on this front in the weeks ahead.The uncertainty to the likely size of the payout to shareholders explains why the company's market capitalisation of £125m is £38m less than the agreed sale price of Greenko's interests in Greenko Mauritius. In the circumstances, I would continue to hold the shares at 80p if you followed my previous advice on the basis that my view is that the total costs incurred in this proposed disposal is likely to be far less than the aforementioned current valuation gap. Hold.
farmerdave
14 Aug 2015
Per share valn Suppose depends on taxes but does anyone have a view ? I think the shares are about right but that is mainly guessCheersFD
elliottsilverman
14 Aug 2015
can anyone explain briefly what the relationship is between Greenko and Greenko Mauritius? Do GM just own some of Greenko's electricity producing assets or everything? tks in advance
II Editor
10 Aug 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 11/08/2015 " GREENKO GROUP PLC. (LSE:GKO) continue our look at the Electricity Sector. Since the start of this year, we'd been expecting to see it bottom at 28p but it seems 40p has provided a pretty solid looking bounce. Essentially, next time it ..."[link]
thirty fifty twenty
30 Jun 2015
analysis of Prefs Conversion at 56p A very interesting situation developing....the starting point of my analysis is the assumption that operationally there are no issues...this is a possibility and thus ultimately there is an element of risk with GKO.That being said - there have been no operational issues mentioned in any newspaper reports,or by rampers and interested parties on other BB sites.My starting point is thus currently £600m of debt, £210m of convertible preference debtand £139m of EBITDA for FY 2016.With such high financial, as well as operational leverage the value of "equity" could thus turn out to be low (though I failed to realise this as I held through the price collapse!). In addition, as the Conv Pref has rights starting on 1 July 15, that value could be HUGELY diluted for current shareholders - so seeing conversion at 40p was not / and still is not unforeseeable. And there is nothing that can be done despite GKO operational success.However what sometimes the market forgets in its selling panic and despair is that companies can react and make decisions which improve their situation.I calculated in this scenario that a conversion price of 50p vs a conversion price of 40p, meant that current shareholders had £10m less dilution post conversion. In theory that meant that current shareholders could spend £9m buying shares to increase the price (in the 5 days prior to 1 July) thus reducing their dilution. Not totally likely but the logic did mean that buyers might be tempted to wade in. This appears to have happened with the huge volume noticed over several days at 45p.Secondly the B of D might try and persuade the Conf Pref holders not to railroad all other shareholders at the lowest point but to do a deal.... GKO has spent £1bn building 1.5GW of renewable, but its target is to get to 5GW by 2020 so there is still a big GW cake to go around and it doesn't make sense to exclude one-self from the financing table of renewables in India 9of which GKO is the 3rd biggest player). This is now confirmed as GKO RNS says it is in negotiations with Conf Pref holders. In Negotiations presumably means that the price would be higher than the market panic bottom of 42p - thus the current price strength of 60p.However the 'no brainer' aspect for me was using adversity to one's advantage.WHATEVER the conversion price, the 'rating' of the equity afterwards would be higher for 2 reasons. 1 - uncertainty would have been removed; 2 - the financial gearing would be significantly reduced.And all of this increase in EV would flow through into the value of the equity.My (conservative) assumption is a 10% increase from the lowest rating reached:Thus a conversion at 40p - the equity would be worth 55pAnd a conversion at 60p - the equity would be worth 75pSo at 55p, I see little downside, even if there is a conversion at 45p.And of course there is HUGE scope for the rating to recover further since GKO has delivered growth in a continuing growth market.The conversion price is set by the average price on the 5 days prior.. so it is no surprise that the buying volume came 7 working days ago. Even if the Conf pref holders pull the trigger against the company's wishes the conversion price would be an average of 60p. Todays' strength is the last day of the 5 days before 1 July so I expect a strong finish to the price.And now the gearing works to our advantage..... as people see that 42-45p is a double bottom, volume confirmed base, they will work out that the lowest conversion price is maybe 55p which automatically makes the equity worth closer to 70p, thus encouraging buyers and so the cycle continues.....I'd be amazed if we see a conversion at 100p or even 80p as talked about by Simon Thompson but there still is more upside, purely from the mathematics of it, as investors work out the implications.With regards overall ratings - GKO EV (Economic Value) is currently 6 times EBITDAMYT EV is at 6.8 timesOPG
