Damp Seaweed
14 Feb 2018
Re: Results I usually get the market reaction wrong, but I’m quite positive about these results and Capital raise. Though it is a shame that they could not simply borrow the money for 6 months.I’ll continue to hold anyway.
PIE-EATER
14 Feb 2018
Results The Group has brought forward plans to increase dividend cover to 2.0x pre-exceptional earnings. Reflecting this, and the Group's strong underlying performance during the half year to 31 December 2017, the directors have declared an interim dividend of 28.0p per share (H1 2017: 32.0p) which will be paid on 6 April 2018 to shareholders on the register at close of business on 16 March 2018. The over-run costs on AWPR, compounded by the compulsory liquidation of Carillion have increased the Group's total cash commitments on the project by in excess of £150m.£150m raised in order not to divert operating capital away from other divisions.All seem sensible and measure decisions at first sight....and cash raising might explain softness in SP.Interesting so see what markets make of it today.PE
Andinvestor
13 Feb 2018
Re: Drop in SP although market has moved... I will probably top up a few later today.I do not think the sp will go far until BB and GFRD sort out an agreement with the Scottish Government over Aberdeen.I expect the QS' s are arguing over millions and will be doing so for months, Arbitration perhaps. Are there any Civil Engineers or QS's out there following this who understand these matters better than my un qualified thoughts able to give us some more insight ?A
dregor
13 Feb 2018
Re: Drop in SP although market has moved... I topped up a few minutes ago, in a modest way.The shares have taken a real bashing and I am 'not drowning' but am definitely 'under water' with my investment. Nevertheless, with a well covered divi and hopefully some psitive news tomorrow, I am reasonably confident this one will eventually head in the right direction.Good luck all!
PIE-EATER
12 Feb 2018
Re: Drop in SP although market has moved up GFRD have dealt with Carillon in a different way to Balfour in their RNS (as stated by a previous poster) and so there is some uncertainty at the minute. Even if GFRD did cut divi, say for example by half......it would still be 5%. It may even remove some uncertainty and allow a recovery in price.I thought about it over the weekend and actually nibbled this morning....perhaps poor timing relative to the rest of the day but think longer term worth the risk.PE
wheebz
12 Feb 2018
Drop in SP although market has moved up Today’s downward SP movement is counter market. This suggested those in the know are getting out ahead of Weds trading statement. Perhaps news on a divi cut!! Any thoughts on why the drop?
kittermaster
08 Feb 2018
Information Thanks Andinvestor and Pie-Eater. Very valuable hard facts. If only all posts were this useful.
PIE-EATER
07 Feb 2018
Tony Yarrow's view from Wise Investments... An interesting take.......especially re damages (end of 1st paragraph)Galliford Try has three businesses. The first, Linden Homes, is the UK’s sixth largest house-builder. Last year the company sold 3,300 new houses, mainly in the South and South-East of England, at an average price of £320,000, and made a profit of £170m. The second business, Partnership & Regeneration, builds affordable houses, mainly for the public sector, an area in which it says there is little competition. However, the market is currently focussing on the third of these businesses, construction, and particularly on the joint venture with Balfour Beatty and Carillion to build the Aberdeen ring road. The project is behind schedule and over budget. The project will make a loss, expected to be between £60 and £80m, which will be shared between the two remaining contractors. However, the cause of the over-run was not negligence on the part of the contractors, but the client, Transport Scotland, which caused delays by failing to divert the traffic adequately. The contractors have claimed against the client, and expect to receive substantial damages. The contract is expected to be complete by the middle of 2018.Following the Carillion debacle, we believe that in future contractors may be in a position to negotiate improved terms on government and local government contracts, and we have heard from some that this has already started to happen.Galliford Try’s share price has fallen by 46.5% from its high reached in August 2015. Based on 2017 earnings, the dividend is covered 1.6 times. At the year-end, the company’s debt of £562m was covered by £765m of cash. If the construction company was to disappear, the remaining two businesses would be on a price/earnings multiple of less than five times.
Andinvestor
06 Feb 2018
Re: looking oversold The Aberdeen contract was agreed Dec 2014, long before the current CEO took office, not surprising he stated no more contracts of this type. Given Balfour Beatty and GFRD are jointly and severally liable for the project the project and Transport Scotland state there is no more money for the project there will be very serious talks going on. Evening Press excerpt.“However, we can confirm that this announcement generates no direct costs to Scottish Government as each construction partner of Aberdeen Roads Limited is joint and severally liable for the delivery of the contract.The Scottish Government needs to be careful, they state their concern for the Carrilion workers etc, but if they are too intransigent they will create more problems and further unemployment. Whole article from evening press[link] am sure BB and GFRD can sort this out but not without further hits to the bottom line beyond the already declared provisions.
stillere
06 Feb 2018
sp imho if sp remains at this low level a bid will come .despite recent history i am confident in recovery.would recommend buy if i could see how!dyor
Rhigos
06 Feb 2018
Re: looking oversold I agree there is a lot of uncertainty but I have a lot more confidence in GFRD than Carillion (I did have some Carillion shares but sold in Nov 2015 at 303.3 for a small overall loss).Yesterdays limit order not met so put on another one today at 998 which was met. SP fell as low as 989 so could have got cheaper. Only a small top up anyway.I remember a statement by GFRD chairman that they would take on no more fixed price contracts. I assume joint contract with Carillion was taken on before that statement.
pearlsasinger
05 Feb 2018
Re: looking oversold TejoYou have stated the problem very succinctly.GFRD has created its own uncertainty-through the manner it handled previous problems.
tejo
05 Feb 2018
looking oversold It certainly does look heavily oversold but the problem is the memory of the bombshell announcement of the construction loss when any competent management would have known about it and reported it very much earlier. Better still they would have avoided it. The same FD is there although the CEO moved on. Therefore, although all looks OK on the surface, I worry about what might be bubbling away underneath and need another set of audited accounts before buying.
Rhigos
05 Feb 2018
Re: Looking oversold Missed out 'like' in previous post, should have read:"This company is nothing like Carillion but IMO oversold because of link with them."Gives me opportunity to post my 'Strong BUY' view.
Rhigos
05 Feb 2018
Looking oversold I have placed a limit order to top up on my already slightly overweight position in GFRD. Today's near 4% fall look like a good buying opportunity to me. Fundamentals look pretty good:Forecast (fc) PE 6.2fc yield 9.4%, covered x1.7Interest covered x7.3No pension deficiteCash = Borrowing.The ROCE of 11.2% and fc normalised EPS rise of 2.8% are not great however.This company is nothing Carillion but IMO oversold because of link with them.I would post a 'Buy' view if I could get at tab.
