millwallfan
12 Apr 2018
Re: bin Bin. You state GFM is high risk. In the interest of balance Please list the high risk factors for the benefit of others on this board with your interpretation of the factors which make a high score. For the purposes of this exercise let's use Risk (asassessed globally) as the product of 'impact' and 'likelihood' regardless of what scoring method per axis you use. 4 x 4 is one of the most common with 16 being high risk being of 'catastrophic' impact and also being 'almost certain' to occur. There are two scores for each risk - the 'inherent risk' and the 'controlled' risk. Let's use the latter for it better represents the real world .IMHO I would comment as follows on some of the key risks I perceive. (1) If you say operating in China - a risk yes -but their long history, safety record and community actions are hardly to score as high. I would suggest 6 as a max.(2) price of zinc ,gold and silver. Dependent on world demand and certainly one to watch regularly. Numerous factors can influence commodity price At this point in time for the foreseeable future again I think 6 max. (3) mine accident. A clear risk but substantially mitigated by looking at historical records(4) exchange rates - especially the strength or weakness of the dollar in which commodities are traded and sterling as GFM reports in £. To a certain degree these work against each other so to some degree partially offset each other. I could go on but would welcome your take on GFM's key risks and comments on my perceptions .
Sageman
12 Apr 2018
Stockopedia Rating Forgot to say that following the results GFM is now ranked the number 1 stock on Stockopedia. It is the only company (out of the whole lot) rated as 100 (the highest possible score). Stockopedia = proper independent research that you have to subscribe to in order to receive.
Sageman
12 Apr 2018
Re: Bin, well done on making a profit but I am unsure about your lack of transparency comment. GFM are very aware that commodities are volatile and have always been cautious. I would like to have heard what the current bank balance is, what the dividend will be and have a trading update. However, we are only just past the half way mark for this half year of earnings. The BOD prefer to comment when they know the half year figures. They now have money and money talks. It is clear that they expect the license soon. If they double production then profits will soar. Commodity prices and China remain key risks but the sp is currently cheap based on earnings. The potential good news is not in the price. The current price looks high compared with the past but previously we were hampered by debt and miserable commodity prices. At these prices GFM is a strong buy.
binjiou
12 Apr 2018
I sold the last of mine on the morning of results: a good profit banked .I will continue to follow the story. There is lack of transparency going forward , and the stock is still high risk:
marico1
12 Apr 2018
Zinc Price A 3 percent fall in the Zinc price overnight should push this below 130p today. I sold my modest holding on Monday for a nice profit, hoping to buy back in below the 120p level if Zinc stabilises.
Sageman
11 Apr 2018
Re: Ridiculous MWF , I said in a previous post that markets sell the rumour buy the fact or buy the rumour and sell the fact. To a large extent the SP had moved back to the all time high the day before the results in anticipation of excellent results. We needed more to propel the SP further and therefore we have had inevitable profit taking. Last year we had a trading statement in July and results in early August and I believe that much good news is yet to come which is why I marked the results as a buy. Had the sp moved north of the £140-£160 range that I had predicted I would not have put a buy recommendation on the stock. Us being in China with Trump Sabre rattling for a trade war does not help but we are currently very cheap with a dividend and license still to come. A trading statement will show excellent trading and even higher cash levels. I expect a broker re-rate and a higher price in August.
Rellim05
11 Apr 2018
Re: Ridiculous I have to admit that I did top slice a few thousand yesterday, my logic was that without a mention of a dividend, I cannot see anything driving up the SP other than the licence being awarded (and we seem to have been waiting for many years for that). So till the interims are announced, hopefully early August , my money will be invested elsewhere.
Still learningafterallthistime
11 Apr 2018
Re: Ridiculous I haven't gone through the numbers yet, but if small holding is right, 9x's for an AIM listed, Chinese mine with 3% projected growth doesn't sound that mad in a turbulent world. As you say, no divi, yet, it'll probably come and we don't know what we'll have to pay to get the new licence. So I think it is cheap, I'm not selling and would buy more on weakness if the metal market were to look like it was holding up at that time, but there are quite a few unknowns with no divi to pay you while you wait. We all think there is good upside and it wouldn't surprise me if some bigger buyers do some analysis and then buy, but most of these results were fully expected by long term watchers, the new buyers need to absorb what has been achieved/confirmed and then investigate what might still (hopefully) be achieved. IMHO.... SL
millwallfan
11 Apr 2018
Ridiculous Cannot believe the price drop today. Surely the lack of a dividend or promise thereof in the chairman’s statement couldn’t have had such an impact. The results were at least in line with our regular posters expectations and should have been a nice surprise to the uninitiated. Something is clearly holding this back - Syria? based in China? AIM listing ? It clearly has nothing to do with Brexit or the uk economy which dominates the Lloyd’s board. Not sure what to do now !! Phillip, sage,CD etc al what are your thoughts????
Small Holding
11 Apr 2018
Absurdly cheap www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/04/10/2-stocks-that-seem-absurdly-cheap-right-now/2 stocks that seem absurdly cheap right nowThe mining sector may have enjoyed a more prosperous period in recent months. However, many of its constituents continue to offer low valuations and the potential for improving share price performance.Certainly, the risks from declining commodity prices remain. The global economy’s performance could come under pressure and lead to a general slowdown. But with wide margins of safety, these two mining companies appear to be worth a closer look right now.Improving performanceReporting on Tuesday was zinc/gold miner Griffin Mining (LSE: GFM). The China-focused operator delivered a 91% increase in revenue, with its operating profit of $64m 319% higher than in the previous year. It delivered record production in 2017, while cash generated from operations of $77.4m enabled all bank loans to be repaid. It also allowed the company to invest $13.3m in further development of the Caijiaying mine, as well as in exploration and equipment purchases.Looking ahead, Griffin Mining is expected to deliver a modest 3% rise in earnings in the current financial year. While there are mining stocks with higher forecast growth rates, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 9 suggests that it could offer good value for money. That’s especially the case since demand for gold miners could increase if global inflation expectations continue to rise.Of course, the company is relatively small and seems to lack the diversity of some of its sector peers. Therefore it may mean a relatively risky investment opportunity. But with strong progress being made in its operational and financial performance, its low valuation suggests that it could deliver high rewards in the long run.
millwallfan
10 Apr 2018
Disappointed! As results day comes to a close i feel that I must express my overall sense of disappointment at both the share price and the lack of any real signal on future dividend policy. The results themselves are excellent and I sincerely hope that an earlier poster is correct in suggesting a deliberate 'downplay ' for some greater reason still to become evident.
millwallfan
10 Apr 2018
Re: Sweepstake to help pass the time WINNER Rocco200 can formally be announced as our winner with an incredible forecast of just 0.25p higher than the £.13925 mid price. Well done indeed !!!!!
burnchat
10 Apr 2018
roco200 wins the comp ... Well done and so out of the blue too...
burnchat
10 Apr 2018
Re: Results both bizarre and ridiculous, indeed.
burnchat
10 Apr 2018
Re: House broker It is almost impossible to downplay what has been achieved in 2017... They say you have got to sometimes look deeper into the words used by the chairman. Has he been given the objective of downplaying the results. If so why and by whom...All in all I am not surprised in the least with the results, the Chinese are doing well, its a good mine and they are looking after the workforce, a major plus in my book. Just one gripe, if they spray paint the identification numbers onto those nice new vehicles then I will be most put out.
