Guitarsolo
30 Nov 2018
Something's got to give here I repeat! Something’s got to give here! Stock levels on LME are below 120k which is the lowest for a decade. Shanghai stocks (I think) are equally low. I’ve always thought we need LME levels to go below 100k to grab the attention and we are pretty close to that now. I’m also keeping an eye on the spread between the cash settlement and the 3-month price. As I understand it, if the cash settlement price (immediate) is higher then you’re paying a premium for immediate delivery which logically indicates a supply squeeze. Well, traditionally the cash settlement price is lower but recently it has been higher, and now is almost $100 per tonne higher and rising. Surely something’s got to give here! I can only assume it is Trump and China that is holding this back at present. Guitarsolo
thorn_standing
12 Nov 2018
Green light Hi GS and BC I am also still here (mainly because I have a portfolio of stocks in ii and also use their Level 2 QuoteStream service). I really don’t like the new discussion board format either, by comparison with the original format where it was very easy to follow what was going on - this is actually my first post in the new format. It’s a real shame the other old stagers have gone as they were a good source of informed thought and knowledge, particularly as regards GFM. Hopefully some may come back. I still have a modest holding of GFM and have made a few small strategic additions when the price has fallen back temporarily. Still hoping for a killing one day soon and in any case I am still well ahead… TS
burnchat
05 Nov 2018
Green light Hi Guitar No I’m not invested in good old Griffin even with the apparent zinc stock levels at such lows. Its a shame about this BB it used to be a cracker… I don’t think the others will make it back the new format is just to difficult to get used to i’m afraid. As far as re-investing I suppose I may do at some point but not yet, i’m afraid I have moved over to the dark side I have been short on the Dow and FTSE for the last 3 months, its a different game although I have to say far less stressful.
Guitarsolo
05 Nov 2018
Green light Burnchat! You’re back! Are you just visiting or are you back as a shareholder? If I recall, you sold out perhaps a year ago (circa 120p)? As you can see, when iii changed the format they lost the majority of posters. I defected for a while but am now getting used to this site again. There aren’t too many people around though. Chinese Dragon and Sageman are over on ADVFN (Sage is winding a few people right up!!). Others have gone over to LSE. If any of those souls do check in to iii still, I would urge them to re-engage. The site still has its faults but it is easier to use than I first thought. Guitarsolo
burnchat
03 Nov 2018
Green light I am the official green light of Griffin Mining… When I shine the whole world shine with me… Enjoy
Guitarsolo
01 Nov 2018
Something's got to give here Something’s got to give here! With LME stockpiles down to a little over 150kt why is the zinc price still “only†at circa $1.20 ($2600 in metric)? When stock levels last fell through the 150kt barrier the price was over 20% higher. So something is holding this back…Trump and the trade wars? Possibly, but GFM is mining in China and selling mostly to China so it would only apply on a macro level of global slowdown - and China is still growing at 6.5% a year (and they call that “poorâ€) and the US at over 3%. A bit of research shows that the world uses approx. 14.1m tonnes of zinc a year. If LME stockpiles are at 150kt and the LME represents say 66.7% of the world’s bonded supplies (the rest mostly being in SHFE) then there are only circa 225kt in warehouse. I make that about 6 days of supply! We live in a world of just-in-time supply chains but that is extremely tight. I found this article - it’s a bit out of date and very “academic†but gives some insight into the relationship of LME/SHFE stockpiles and price. I haven’t yet read it all. [link] It would suggest supply as tight as this should result in a price spike. Indeed we have had the spot price above the 3-month price for a while (I discussed this about 9 months ago in the old iii era when I wasn’t talking to myself!). Currently, the spot price is about 2-3% above the 3-month price. This academic article would suggest it could spike to 10-20% if supply is under 10-days’ worth…I do hope I have that calculation of 6 days correct! I have kept an eye on LME stocks for the years I have been invested in GFM (since 28p days for me) as it has been one of the main drivers of my investment thesis. I’m aware that it can suddenly go dump, dump, dump and a 100kt arrives from nowhere! Infuriating! But we have a supply deficit and VERY low stock levels…so something has to give!!! Hopefully it is going to be the price and it will rocket soon! Guitarsolo - is there anybody out there?
Guitarsolo
23 Oct 2018
Crucial moment LME stock levels still dropping (and rapidly). Down to 167kt. Last time LME was dropping through this level (Feb 2018) the zinc price was at circa $3500 as opposed to $2700 (c. 30% higher). As far as I am aware (please correct) LME is about two-thirds of the bonded-warehouse market with Shanghai taking the balance. I think I heard that Shanghai levels are also low. Something is holding the price of zinc back. Stock levels should indicate a much higher price and that may, hopefully, be what is needed to break free of this $1.20 or $2650 level. If it does, GFM is undervalued as we all know. Guitarsolo - hello, is there anybody in/out there?
Guitarsolo
09 Oct 2018
Crucial moment Still in the $1.20 (or $2,700/tn) zone… Strong start to the day though: [link] The zinc price doesn’t appear to trade sideways for long before beginning an up or down trend (amateur view)…it needs to break free of $1.20 - on the upside if you don’t mind. LME zinc stocks still holding around 200kt. Guitarsolo - never been so interested in the price of zinc before!!
Guitarsolo
02 Oct 2018
Crucial moment Crucial moment coming up here I think. I am no chartist but $1.20 is clearly a test level for zinc. It bounced off it several times in July/August before heading downwards. Zinc is back there again. LME stock levels down at c.200kt. It can fall rapidly if smelters stop dumping it into warehouse. A year or two ago I would say it used to be a 1000 tonnes/day fall but now it is not unusual to see 1500/2000 tonnes/day drops. Make of that what you will. Fingers crossed that zinc can power through $1.20. Guitarsolo
Still_learningafterallthistime
12 Sep 2018
Stockpaedia Sadly CD’s message was from June… I think he and others aren’t coming back. I also look at ADVFN but can’t seem to find a very current thread. I think the weakness is all down to zinc price and the risk of escalating trade war and what they means for Chinese consumption of zinc, and rest of world’s too. A shame as other zinc mines will wake up at some stage and so Griffin’s day in the sun may not be quite as bright as we all hoped. Board’s purchases at 150p look pretty silly. I think they get some things right - obviously, but they rarely get much right when it comes to the shares. Most of the time they don’t seem to care what the share price does, reasonably, but those high purchases were nuts. GLA. SL
Guitarsolo
10 Sep 2018
Stockpaedia I do subscribe to Stockopedia and find it very useful for certain information, especially when researching potential investments. I do take note of the ratings (quality, value, momentum - or a combination) but, as Ripley points out, GFM was granted a 100-rating when the price was considerably higher than here…so it would have been extremely misleading as an indicator in itself. It is driven by algos so ticking lots of boxes can give a very high rating but it ignores the most important fundamental for GFM - namely the future price of zinc, which no one knows. Chinese Dragon - good to see you back. I follow the chat on ADVFN but won’t subscribe to yet another site and don’t really fancy the keyboard warriors over there! I didn’t like the iii site after the change, and still don’t. But it is not as bad as I first feared. So come back! And drag Sage with you! Guitarsolo
Ripley94
09 Sep 2018
Stockpaedia GFM… XXXX The share price was 157p when Stockpaedia reported here gave it a 100 rating. Its 103p now any reason for 34 % drop in share price ?
briankempy
05 Sep 2018
Griffin share price I fully agree we want all the old posters back, I have been looking around and have decided to stay here (after about 20 years) luckyharry
Guitarsolo
21 Aug 2018
Griffin share price Ian/Still Learning, I’m still here as well. I did briefly defect to LSE/ADVFN after “the change†here on III. I am still not a fan but have probably concluded that life is not necessarily greener on the other side and perhaps I should grin and bear this new format and get used to it. Certainly the other information (non bulletin board stuff) is superior here. Sageman seems to have had enough of the ridiculous amateur activists and keyboard warriors over on ADVFN. Sage, if you’re reading, come back here and give it a whirl… Whatever your take on the company, its a valid view to share with other PIs and the more views we each consider the better our decision making should be. ADVFN don’t deserve you! Chinese Dragon and Millwallfan are over on ADVFN as well…come back guys/ girls. Guitarsolo
Still_learningafterallthistime
29 Jun 2018
Griffin share price Thanks Ian, helpful, I’m trying LSE too. SL
