Boyobach
03 Oct 2017
Re: Flight Ban Yes - pretty much what we've been discussing this past week. Flight ban is the least of it - Turkish control over oil exports is rather more critical to Genel.
onewayticket
03 Oct 2017
Flight Ban Its the independence vote, flight ban in particular and all the uncertainty now created that has dampened the share price. Its all a bit up in the air and a bit of a mess at the momentOwn due diligence.
Boyobach
02 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc My own view is that 96p is looking increasingly likely thence very possibly lower unless there's a swift rapprochement between Erbil and Baghdad. This is more than just a 'technical correction'.Quite what the KRG - or perhaps more accurately, Barzani - expected to achieve from the Referendum may not yet be clear. On the face of it, it has gone very wrong but , on the other hand, the reaction of all the actors has been pretty predictable and he should have foreseen it. Maybe he seriously misjudged the special relationship that has apparently existed between the Turks and the KRG. Yet Erdogan clearly prefers Kurds to occupy a stateless buffer zone rather than having any national sovereignty - and he holds all the cards.
rRomeo29
02 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc Yepp, Boyoback! You've been quite right.My initial retracement target has been 124p, but now this is being tested severely.IF 124 is breached in the next three days, then retrace down to abut 110p where the Sp should find new grip.Actually this is quite a slap into the face of one or the other (arab) trader I seen over on lse-uk screaming and buying bigtime as from 150p. Easy come, easy go, Saudis!
Boyobach
02 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc after those (ridiculous!) flying weeks this summer, completely out of any TA range....As I said at the time, to Needsumluck: 'Whether the market reaction was proportionate is for you to judge. As a holder, I'm not complaining.'I'm obviously 'in' at a much lower net price than today's sp. So not concerned at this level or indeed minded to add. More likely to start selling if the 124 does not hold (I suspect it won't).
rRomeo29
02 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc ...and my personal 124p retracement target has been reached after those (ridiculous!) flying weeks this summer, completely out of any TA range.Now we are back on track. Lets see if a new entry should be allowed now. Just talking to myself : ))Yes, if this is the case with Turkey, then I agree. But if it's not, then this is just another successful chart tech play.---------- ----"...If the Turks play rough with the KRG then expect Genel's sp to collapse."
Boyobach
01 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc If the Turks play rough with the KRG then expect Genel's sp to collapse....So here's the thing: Turkey has declared that they will adhere to Baghdad's request to deal exclusively with them regarding oil. I take this to mean that the pipeline stays open, oil gets sold but Baghdad gets to control the buyers and also gets the money. Presumably this could mean that Genel/DNO continue production but ultimately don't get paid (as per previous experience with Baghdad)...... Great!!! For Genel, if it's not the IS conflict (indirectly causing non-payment) it's the reserves being written off and then, when finally on the road to recovery, the KRG mounting a no-hope bid for independence that causes every ally and enemy to join forces against the Kurds and cut-off Genel's only routes to market. Being heavily Turkish ain't going to help Genel much in this scenario.FWIW I think the KRG will milk the situation as much as possible then capitulate and annul the Referendum result. Now that everyone has seen the result, and knows it was credibly obtained, it has served its international PR purpose and the Kurds can also now convincingly demonstrate what we've always known - that they have been unreasonably coerced by Baghdad AND the international community.
Boyobach
29 Sep 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc A TA correction always works best when reality provides the underlying rationale. Whether 130 provides support, or not, and whether there is any kind of traction will depend on the ongoing risks posed by fallout from the KRG referendum. Turkey appear to be sending mixed messages about cutting off the export pipeline- although you'd have to go with what the top man is saying. I's interesting that Erdogan apparently needs to claim Russian endorsement of his position that the Referendum was illegitimate. Russia has, however, been quite muted: respecting the Kurds but supporting the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Iraq. Does Erdogan speak for them? Sure - Putin must be delighted with Erdogan speaking on his behalfIf the Turks play rough with the KRG then expect Genel's sp to collapse
rRomeo29
29 Sep 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc ...and my retracement target is about to be reached.(Sp totally overbought and out of chart this August! In any case there was quite a TA correction on the cards.)
Boyobach
28 Sep 2017
Turkey From Hurriyet:Trade ties between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) should not be affected by the recent independence referendum, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci has told the Hürriyet Daily News, saying the current state of economic relations are “business as usual.” “During the crisis with Russia in 2015, the first thing they did was [restrict] trade. They tried to teach a lesson to Turkey through trade. This was very wrong. I wouldn’t find it right to repeat this mistake in the same way [against the KRG],” Zeybekci said on Sept. 26. Zeybekci stressed that the cabinet did not take any decisions to impose sanctions on the KRG in its last meeting on Sept. 22, saying that talking about “economic embargos” are dangerous for a country like Turkey that wants to become a regional hub of finance and trade. “When our national interests oblige us to do otherwise, then we as the Economy Ministry will act accordingly. But our current reflex as a ministry is to make sure that our trade continues with ‘business as usual.’ There was no decision taken at the last cabinet meeting to change this view of ours [regarding trade with the KRG],” he said.
rRomeo29
27 Sep 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc ...and the retrace down to about 130ish.
rRomeo29
27 Sep 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc Technical retrace after the too quick rise.Our last up-trend target has been set around 124p, so I think the share price should find new grip within a 125 - 140p range.
Boyobach
26 Sep 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc Most commentators seem to agree that the Referendum won't change anything in respect of independence for a while yet, meanwhile, in my view...Turkey won't want to upset Russian interests - especially with their ambition to be a conduit for energy to Europe. Plus they'd rather have the KRI as neighbours than a Shia (Iranian) influenced nationUS are playing a delicate game - they need to support Abadi but the KRG control a strategically important and relatively stable area. Abadi has little choice but to talk tough but in practice he doesn't need another conflict to break out.No one really wants to rock the boat and the Kurds will (justifiably in my view) leverage as much as they can internationally out of the situation.
onewayticket
26 Sep 2017
Shaken not stirred A good buying opportunity was given on the dipOwn due diligence
onewayticket
26 Sep 2017
Erdogan etc etc It seems Russia and Opec's decision to cut oversupply combined with Erdogans threats to shut the pipeline from Kurdistan to Turkey and election uncertainty are all taking their toll. Shutting the pipeline would not be good news.Its a shame as Genel had up until a few days ago been doing me proud.Where does anyone see it settling?Own due diligence
