Boyobach
16 Nov 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long To clarify:their mishandled independence project. = KRG's mishandled independence project. (obviously)
Boyobach
16 Nov 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long In the aftermath of the KRG's disastrous handling of their Referendum and as news of the KRG's debt situation emerges over coming weeks, it's worth bearing in mind that much of it is apparently in oil that has been pre-paid and is still in the ground. The KRG just lost a huge chunk of that resource when they handed Kirkuk's oil back to Baghdad.Did Genel get pre-paid for future production? I don't think so.Was any of the pre-paid cash set aside to pay for ongoing production? Hmmm.If not, how is Genel to be paid?What is the KRG track record in these circumstances?The risk/reward ratio for Genel's investors appears to have sharply deteriorated since Oct 16th and the total collapse of their mishandled independence project.
Boyobach
26 Oct 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long I forgot to add that, given the circumstances, 110p looks a bit optimistic as a 'bottom' if KRG continue to mishandle the mess they have got themselves into. I've progressively pulled out completely for the time being and would not buy back at any price above 80p unless there is some political clarity.
Boyobach
26 Oct 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long Today Abadi has rejected the KRG's offer to 'freeze' the referendum result and their proposals for cease-fire and talks. Meanwhile ICG forces continue towards Fish Khabur (KRG controlled since 1991).The objective appears to be to encircle the KRG and take control of key oil production and export infrastructure. Even if Genel's contracts are unaffected in the long term, the ability of the KRG to export oil and service contract payments is severely at risk. Genel's prospects are now entirely dependant on a satisfactory resolution of the KRG-ICG dispute.
rRomeo29
26 Oct 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long ...and 110p almost reached. Any skyhigh flying share price always retraces back to a normal balanced level.---------- ---------- Sept 2017"My initial retracement target has been 124p, but now this is being tested severely. IF 124 is breached in the next three days, then retrace down to abut 110p where the Sp should find new grip.Actually this is quite a slap into the face of one or the other (arab) trader I seen over on lse-uk screaming and buying bigtime as from 150p. Easy come, easy go, Saudis!"
Clarence Beaks
24 Oct 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long thanks boyobach. dont ever know nowadays what is good for any oil company operating over there. waste of space most of them.
Boyobach
24 Oct 2017
Re: £1.50's didnt hold up for long Have you being following the news in the KRG? Because of a massive miscalculation by the KRG (Barzani) and further mishandling since Kirkuk was re-acquired by the ICG, all oil KRI assets are now likely to come under control of the central government. Furthermore, the KRG's huge debt situation is now unsustainable. Not good for Genel. See my next post.
Clarence Beaks
23 Oct 2017
£1.50's didnt hold up for long
Boyobach
20 Oct 2017
Re: Rosneft press release This should remove risks of Turkish intervention and, together with Gazprom's interests, continues the impetus of Russian energy business in the KRI. Will Genel continue as it is or, if the price is right...?
Boyobach
20 Oct 2017
Rosneft press release Rosneft and Kurdistan Regional Government announce the entry of Rosneft into an infrastructure project in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region19 OctoberRosneft and Kurdistan Regional Government are continuing to build on agreements they have reached previously.On the sidelines of the X Eurasian Economic Forum in Verona the parties have announced the start of joint implementation of an infrastructure project for the operation of the oil pipeline in the Kurdish Autonomous Region.Rosneft’s share in the project may amount to 60%. The other project participant with 40% share will be KAR Group, who is the current pipeline operator.Rosneft Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said: «The entry into the infrastructure project will contribute to achievement of Rosneft’s strategic objectives and will enable Rosneft to enhance the efficiency of oil transportation to the end customers including supplies to the Company’s refineries in Germany».
Boyobach
17 Oct 2017
Post-Kirkuk As the KRG comes to terms with its disastrous handling of the Referendum and the consequential loss of Kirkuk and its valuable oil revenues, the market appears to be grasping today that the political, security and payment situation for Genel is ironically better than at any time in the last three years. Hence today's smart recovery to around 128 with probably more to go - after all, the basic asset value looks to be worth over £3 per share, regular income (boosted by the recently agreed Receivables settlement) is now flowing and gas production isn't really factored-in.
Boyobach
16 Oct 2017
Today A significant day in the KRI, as the ICG regains control of Kirkuk with relatively little violence following withdrawal of some KRG Peshmerga loyal to one wing of the PUK. Recriminations between Kurdish factions have already begun since some PUK elements seem to have withdrawn as part of a pre-arranged plan, precipitating the collapse of resistance. However, widespread violence - with the risk to assets and revenue that that entails - seems to have been avoided.Although disappointing for many Kurds, especially Barzani's supporters, from Genel's pov the turn of events should lead to a much less volatile situation. Baghdad and Erbil both need to continue exporting oil via Ceyhan and there is only one route for this. So the inference would be that neither will seek to disrupt the other's flow via the pipeline. With independence sidelined, the KRG and ICG should now be able to focus on normalising their relations and budget arrangements, leading to a more stable business environment.Also today, the first over-ride payment has been received as part of the 'receivables settlement'. So, given the circumstances since the Referendum, a relatively more stable situation could develop.
Boyobach
04 Oct 2017
Putin comment According to the FT today, Putin has warned that cutting off oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan would raise global crude prices and has urged countries not to “provoke” the situation following the independence referendum. Presumably his comments indicate the advice he's giving his pal Recep. As we know, of course, Russia has interests in Iraqi Kurdistan via the state oil company Rosneft.
Boyobach
03 Oct 2017
Foreign currency transfer ban in KRI Iraq’s parliament on Tuesday said it had voted for financial sanctions which would “preserve the interests” of Kurdish citizens and target the Kurdish leadership. (Reuters)That would, of course, mean preserving the interests of employers in the region...However: Businesses in need of foreign currency and foreign workers in Kurdistan, whose pay and remittances are usually in dollars, will be the most affected by the new measures.Full article:BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq stopped selling dollars to leading banks in Kurdistan and banned foreign currency transfers to the autonomous region on Tuesday, stepping up its retaliation for the Kurds’ independence vote.The financial sanctions follow a ban on direct international air travel to the region imposed by the central government on Friday.Iraq’s central bank informed the Kurdistan Regional government (KRG) that it would stop selling dollars to four major Kurdish banks and stop all foreign currency transfers to the region, banking and government sources told Reuters.Businesses in need of foreign currency and foreign workers in Kurdistan, whose pay and remittances are usually in dollars, will be the most affected by the new measures.Business people and expatriates were also the most directly hit by the ban on international flights to the Kurdish airports of Erbil and Sulaimaniya. It forces them to travel via airports in Baghdad and southern Iraq, increasing cost and adding delay.“The condition for ending the dollar sale prohibition is to have the Kurdish banks under the central bank’s control,” said an Iraqi official.But a Kurdish official in the KRG capital Erbil said the region’s banks already reported to the central bank in Baghdad, and the airports of the Kurdish region already reported to the Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority.Iraq’s parliament on Tuesday said it had voted for financial sanctions which would “preserve the interests” of Kurdish citizens and target the Kurdish leadership.The Shi‘ite Arab-led Iraqi government has rejected an offer by the Kurdish government to discuss independence. It has demanded that it cancel the result of the Sept. 25 referendum or face continued sanctions, international isolation and possible military intervention.The U.S. administration strengthened its alliance with Iraq’s Kurds during the war on Islamic State, but is taking the side of Baghdad in the crisis in refusing to recognize the referendum.Iraq’s powerful neighbors Iran and Turkey are backing Baghdad, fearing the spread of separatism to their own Kurdish populations.Writing by Maher Chmaytelli; editing by Andrew RocheOur Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Boyobach
03 Oct 2017
Re: Erdogan etc etc Interesting pause in the sp drop - rallying slightly back up to around rRomeo's 124. A useful number.Presumably the market has spotted that the posturing by Baghdad and Ankara hasn't yet stopped the flow of oil and shipments are still leaving Ceyhan bound, amongst other places, to Israel. The flight ban has, as intended, grabbed headlines and sent a warning shot without pushing the KRI into an economic corner. Perhaps Abadi and Erdogan have calculated that the situation - and consequences for them - could get unpredictable if they use too much pressure too soon. Meanwhile the issue seems to be subsiding into just another political row between Irbil and Baghdad - nothing new about that. According to Rudaw, the Iraqi parliament is apparently seeking to suspend Kurdish MPs who supported the Referendum and may even put them on trial. If it becomes a purely constitutional argument then the matter of Kurdish independence may just continue as an Iraqi can routinely kicked down the road.
