Boyobach
16 Jan 2018
Re: Business environment improving? Another positive sign re the business climate: Chevron have apparently announced a resumption of operations in the KRI, having suspended drilling in October.[link] those interested in KRG export data, there's a Deloitte report for H1 2017 at:[link]
Boyobach
22 Dec 2017
Re: Share price On Monday I correctly indicated that a boost was needed to reverse the sp decline - that boost happened the following day when payments were made. Had payment been missed then the sp would certainly have continued to drop. The refinancing has also boosted confidence - and that may have been the main factor given the delayed market reaction.The political situation is exactly as I've indicated. If the market genuinely remains unconcerned about this and the KRG's ability to pay then the sp should regain pre-referendum levels of 150p or more. That still remains to be seen, however.Payments and Refinancing were both effectively 'done' by early Wednesday so the market reaction to them late yesterday afternoon was somewhat delayed, giving the initial impression that it was not overly impressed. Genel has often been volatile - the sharp rise late yesterday was a surprise to me and I waited until this morning to see how spurious it was. I've since re-acquired my holding at about par with my November exit price. As ever with Genel, I hope for the best and plan for the worst.
one4all
22 Dec 2017
Re: KRI political scene and yet the share price marches higher..something to do with more assets
one4all
22 Dec 2017
Re: Share price how that 70p target going. nice little piece, you are de ramping to get try to influence the price. but whatever anyone says on these boards for a company the size of GENL it wont effect the price.
Boyobach
21 Dec 2017
KRI political scene SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq — The Kurdistan region of Iraq is fast descending into chaos, with protests continuing for the third day in some parts of Sulaimaniyah province and security forces using live ammunition to disperse them. Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has threatened to intervene militarily.Read more: [link] apparently unaffiliated broadcaster, NRT, appears to have been shut down.
Boyobach
20 Dec 2017
Re: Share price - Payment No - the 'override' payments are the result of the Receivable Settlement Agreement, reached in August, to eliminate the backlog in favour of enhanced production payments going forward (see below). It's a good deal provided KRG continue to pay. [link]
riverside red
20 Dec 2017
Re: Share price - Payment Are there not arrears still due?
Boyobach
20 Dec 2017
Re: Share price - Payment Yes - I agree. The statement unfortunately creates an element of doubt.
Investor KT
20 Dec 2017
Re: Share price - Payment BoyobachMANY THANKS FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS.I checked back to last month (Tawke, $46.53 M) and the month before (Tawke, $39.50 M) and last month RNS also said "towards" rather than full payment. I believe it is just their phrasing, which could be clearer, rather than the amount due been partially settled. The amounts from Tawke have therefore increased in each of the last 2 months at least.Kind regards.
Boyobach
19 Dec 2017
Re: Share price - Payment Well today's payment RNS seems to have provided the impetus that my last post was seeking. The sp sensitivity to payments now almost palpable. Will the lift last? The RNS wording isn't 100% reassuring
NO ASA, as operator of the Tawke PSC, has announced the receipt of $54.32 million from the KRG as payment towards September 2017 crude oil deliveries to the export market from the Tawke licence. Payment 'towards' September deliveries - so not full payment ? Although Genl's Taq Taq and override payment appears to have been met in full this time.Meanwhile the region is rife with unrest, journalists being harassed and opposition politicians arrested - eg :From NRT:A special force has detained President of the New Generation Movement Shaswar Abdulwahid in Sulaimani on Tuesday (December 19). Abdulwahid was taken to an unknown place after he was arrested by a special force at the Sulaimani International Airport. The outlook for Genl is 'unsettled' at best in my opinion but, following the payment RNS, the I guess the sp might now cling to the 90-100p range until next month.
Boyobach
18 Dec 2017
Share price Despite today's modest rise, the last month's 'highs' have been pretty tightly bounded by a downward trend that can be traced back to September and the fateful referendum. Unless this trend gets bucked soon, by a sustained price of 95p or better, the sp seems inevitably drawn to 82p next week and maybe even 70p by early in the new year. A pretty dismal reversal of fortunes due entirely to the political mess that has been overseen by the regions's government. So far contractual payments to Genel have been consistent and on-track but, in the absence of any other negative factors, it must be assumed that the sp will remain weak until the KRG has an established budgetary relationship with Baghdad with IOC payments transparently secured and protected. As previously declared, I am not currently a holder because of the perceived risk to payments
Boyobach
18 Dec 2017
Anti KRG Protests Many protests against the government reported in KRI today. Largely motivated by non-payment of salaries and allegations of corruption. Taq Taq area involved:See NRT: [link] started in Sulaimani, Kalar, Ranya, Taqtaq, Chamchamal, Koya, Rawanduz, Halabja, Said Sadiq, and Qaladize as well as Takiya sub-district, Sangasar and Piramagroon in the Kurdistan Region in the early morning Monday.NB: Be wary of Kurdish media, much of which is aligned with political parties/tribes. Rudaw, for example, is quite notoriously pro KDP. The local economy appears to be more vulnerable now than at any time in the last three years.
Boyobach
08 Dec 2017
Re: NO SUBJECT Cheers KT. I keep an eye on Genel - had high hopes for them in the early days and up to mid-2014, when the chain of misfortune started seriously. I accept that I'll never break even - it's more a matter of pulling back incrementally. In August GENL were on a recovery track, this has potentially been severely knocked by political fallout from the referendum. The KRG are financially broke and have pre-sold a lot of oil - that's where the main risk for Genel lies. Any improvement in Taq Taq will be a bonus: it wasn't in the share price.
Investor KT
08 Dec 2017
Re: NO SUBJECT HiI do hold Genel and follow RNSs, occasionally BBs. Did see the refinancing RNS but did not realise the coupon was increased - just looked very generous compared to what one gets elsewhere.Taq Taq has been disappointing. And for me, the share price performance has been dis-appointing - sliding back when seemed it was finally improving.I must admit I follow Genel it less well than you do. Was worried when a while back many directors resigned - all of them within a week or so.Do write on the BB - I am sure many others also read it.Best wish
Boyobach
07 Dec 2017
TFW no one else is posting and you no longer have any shares yourself....As tumbleweed drifts past this deserted BB, which hasn't even attracted a comment about the bond refinancing, it seems that many have decided to move on and that Genel's glory days are not to be.The proposed bond refinancing looks like a sensible move - reducing the debt by nearly 30% and extending maturity of the remainder to 5 years, albeit at an increased coupon of 10% - so the annual cost remains almost the same. It is, of course, a reminder of what might have been - of what was envisaged when the cash was first raised. It is also a reminder of how weak Genel's position to develop it's assets has apparently become. Could Genel ultimately find itself squeezed out of the gas project by a bigger 'partner' - like Rosneft? And Taq Taq - what of that? Some potentially good news about the northern flank, although the impact on reserve calculations remains to be seen.The KRG and the wider Iraqi economy need Genel's resources to keep producing and to be developed but will they honour the payments necessary to enable this? Clearly the market isn't convinced, small wonder given Genel's legendary 'bad luck'. So the sp continues the retrace it's been on since the ill fated Kurdish Referendum in September. There seems no point in even taking a wild punt until it finds some sort of base - perhaps at 82p or even less?
