Boyobach
05 Sep 2018
Trading & Ops Update From Twitter: Genel will announce a trading and operations update on 10 October 2018.
Boyobach
27 Aug 2018
Finding useful chat Regrettably, if you are looking for discussion about some companies, such as Genel, then you may have to go elsewhere for it. This site: LonSouthEast Genel Chat seems to offer rather more activity than you’ll currently find here. I can’t say I prefer, or even like, the site. The ads are loathsome, it’s much more cluttered and less convenient to navigate than this one, plus a few glitches of its own (like when you switch to view more threads and find you are looking at all recent ones, not just the company of interest). For all the justified complaints about the revamp of ii, this new discussion element actually works quite well in my opinion - as evidenced by the number of people who managed to post their complaints despite the supposed difficulties. Charts, lack of a cash line in the vp and returning directly to your vp from chat are different matters.
Boyobach
19 Aug 2018
Nice Earner The current drop from levels of 290+ offers an unexpected ‘buy back’ opportunity for me, having taken profits a few days ago. I’m currently adding around 10% to my core holding on each 25p drop from, and including, 250. As cash flows in, Genel’s worst days should be behind it and it seems to easily merit a 12 month target of £3-£4 per share, although the recent ‘chart average’ around 270 is quite satisfactory from my pov.
Boyobach
14 Aug 2018
Nice Earner Genel seems to have settled into a sweet zone for me - healthily in profit* and in a trading range that provides 30p + profits to be made by trading a percentage of the holding on the highs and lows. Healthily in profit from re-entry at the lows! I lost substantially on the way down in 2015 and have recouped about half so far. High expectations overall.
Boyobach
24 Jul 2018
28 Days to ......BOOM I read this thread a while back - after I’d already banked some profits (my current holding cost about a quid a share). Heck, I’ve held these on and off for four years and Genel still owes me some, albeit about half of what it did! Yes, I see potential in the next month - especially if the US-Iran spat pushes up PoO. Some positive news on the gas would be pretty uplifting wouldn’t it? Good luck to all who’ve been on this particular ride!
In_the_dark_yet_again
17 Jul 2018
Update on Tawke PSC [link]
andrewblight1
10 Jul 2018
Interesting...Another Kurdistan Company doing OK Panagos on ADVN mentioned this company which is involved in the Altrush block in Kurdistan. Not for me personally but an interesting presentation and interesting that some very very big players are behind it who could potentially be looking over us. Abu Dhabi government are major share holders and the Lundin group (valued at 21$ billion. I cannot for the life of me understand why somebody hasn’t chanced their arm with a speculative bid before the SP get to high. Or is it impossible to bid for the company due to the 70% of the company held in major institutions. Consolidation ALWAYS occurs in companies (look at UK grocers at present, look at how all major oil companies were formed) Are we the wrong size to survive. Are we going to be a predator. Any thoughts ??? shamaranpetroleum.com 180604_corporate_presentation_june_2018_-_final.pdf 1176.68 KB
andrewblight1
10 Jul 2018
28 Days to ......BOOM In the next 28 days we have the following action… Peshkabir results, will we be over 30k, what were the drilling results. What the end of year plan Payment, another monster anywhere between 28-30$ million. Lots of it FCF Half Year results. Will we still be at £2.58. Well what do you think ?? Hawkey
andrewblight1
08 Jul 2018
Reasons To Be Cheerful Oil production increasing every month. KRG finances now looking secure due to oil price/increased production Muqtada al-Sadr election winner is inclusive and pro Kurds USA biggest base in the world built in Kurdistan almost complete. Kirkuk oil transporting deal being discussed. Iraqi paying some Kurdistan salaries. Massive support from European countries for KRG ISIL defeated. Oil on the rise very likely 80$ a barrel soon. Venezuela & Iran, Libya situations likely to keep oil price rising Saudis desperate to get oil over 80$ and higher for IPO. Worldwide demand much higher than anticipated touching 100m BOPD API drawdowns regular and Worldwide oil glut now gone Future oil shortfall now very likely due to historical lack of investment. Rosneft has lent KRG up to 3$ billion Rosneft involved in massive exploration & development projects. Rosneft already building several Gas pipelines. New Chairman, New World class CFO, New Dynamic COO Payments now regular every month for 36 months in difficult circumstances Payment increases due to payment “R†factor worth over 400$ million July payment of another 25-30$ million due in coming days. Free Cash flow huge over 140$ million last year and much higher this year. Over 70% of all shares owned by only 5 major institutions. Very small free float. Hard to buy large volumes on occasions. New Bond issue securing finance for 5 years. Some of lowest Production cost in the world. Market cap 3ish x less net assets. Debt free end of year. Breakeven at less than 20$ per Barrels. GKP now committed to increasing production spending over 200$ million Gazprom increasing production in Garmian Shamaran increasing production Atrush Peshkabir producing 30k BOPD any day now & higher by end of year. Peshkabir 4, 5,6, 7 either completed, testing or producing. Tawke production robust. Confirmed by company 4 more new wells being drilled in Tawke in 2018. DNO committed to spending record Capex in 2018. 50% more than last year. Taq Taq TT29 new oil find confirmed, 145 meters deeper than thought possibly more to follow. Taq Taq CPR stating new reserves. Taq Taq major drilling due to be commenced now. 2 more wells this year. Bina Bawi & Miran updated CPR showing huge increase in resource 27% + 78%. Bina Bawi recent site meeting, oil could be flowing within 6 months. Confirmed no rush to achieve GLA, when its best for Genel New CPR No price or volume risk with either Gas fields Genel now financially able to go it alone on upstream project. No partner needed. Somaliland 2D Seismic being processed, drilling expected next year Somaliland massive basin akin to Yemin, unexplored. Somaliland potentially 2 Billion plus barrels of Oil. Somaliland huge port being built near our acreage
andrewblight1
08 Jul 2018
Why buy Genel! Why buy Genel You will all have seen my REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL post of how good a buy Genel is. The bottom line is that on every single financial and SP value matrix Genel is massively undervalued…Fact. Any day now we will have Peshkabir drilling results and production numbers. These are expected to be around 30,000 BOPD and rising by end of year. The DNO CEO described the Peshkabir find as one of the most exciting in his career. Production and transport cost are super low as all infrastructure is shared with Tawke…Fact Taq Taq has stayed pretty steady but some big drills are about to take place. There is growing confidence in the flanks of the fields…Fact Tawke is still producing handsomely and continues to deliver our most income with some of the lowest drilling cost in the world…Fact We have hughe assets in Somaliland and Africa with potentially billions of barrels of oil in then and as we speak are having their 3D and 2D either planned or analysed…Fact Gas has always been seen as the company maker and slowly but surely we are moving towards production. These fields are truly world class and big…Fact Free cash flow is more than any other company of its size I have ever come across. Debt wise we were at 135$ million at end of 2017, 89$ million at 1st May and this doesn’t include May (22.4$ million) June (27.3£ million) July (TBC) payments…Fact So everybody should do their own research and make their own decisions but for me Genel is a huge buy. Any thoughts ???
andrewblight1
08 Jul 2018
Iraq & Kurdistan There is no doubt about it we would probably have a doubling of our SP if our fields were in the North Sea.The risk in Kurdistan is very heavy and real and even now could turn either way. Remember only a few months ago KRG were almost at war with Iraq and on top of this even now ISIL are murdering innocent people on a daily basis. This isn’t being help as the Peshmerga and Iraq forces are not currently working together as they were previously. Add in the Iranian military and it gets more complicated. The other major problems is the Iraq election didn’t provide any workable result and this has meant there is no fully functioning government in Iraq which in turn means the remaining issues between Iraq And KRG are resolved. These are huge ranging from the % of Iraq budget to displaced people, Security, Oil selling, Kirkirk disputed areas…and the list goes on. The Kurds best chance is to send a united team to Bagdad when things settle down as this will give them the greatest voice (or power to veto. block legislation) The final thing which need sorting is the Kurdistan election which are of course on tribal and sectarian lines. Add into that powerful and corrupt ruling families and you have the potential for a power keg. Having said that for decades the Kurds have managed to rub along so fingers crossed. So the final point is once again Genel is not a share for widows and orphans but with a modicum of luck could be an amazing investment. Any thoughts ??
andrewblight1
08 Jul 2018
The world Oil Picture Once again for Genel we are being buffeted by things not much to do with the company. Firstly we have the Trump factor, how much Iran oil will come off the market, will he start a global trade war that will massively damage the price of oil. Then you have the Russians who are turning on the taps big time and have increased production since the Opec meeting. Saudi have been asked to increase oil by 2 million but most commentary is they can’t actually do that. In our favour we have issues in Venezula, Libya, Canada and Nigeria. The Saudis in truth want the oil price higher than it is for their IPO but very sensibly made the right noises for their master. So Saudi add about 1 million barrels and Iran lose 1 million barrel, Uncle Donald happy or thats the theory. Saudis also have their long awaited IPO although there are serious concerns this will ever happen. In the longer term due to lack of investment over the years the oil price will rise and could go to a crazy number. There are billions and billions of $ of underinvestment in recent years and due to the renewable energy fear spend today is still far short of what is needed long term. So my view is short term oil will hang around 75-85$ per barrel unless Donalds trade war kicks off which help us. Any views gratefully received.
andrewblight1
24 Jun 2018
Reasons to be cheerful Oil production increasing every month. KRG finances now looking secure due to oil price/increased production Muqtada al-Sadr election winner is inclusive and pro kurds USA biggest base in the world built in Kurdistan almost complete. All border crossing open now Iraqi paying some Kurdistan salaries. Most international flights now resumed to Kurdistan Massive support from European countries for KRG ISIL defeated. Oil on the rise very likely 80$ a barrel soon. Venezuela & Iran, Libya situations likely to keep oil price rising Saudis desperate to get oil over 80$ and higher for IPO. OPEC deal keeping increased production below 600k, less than is need. Worldwide demand much higher than anticipated touching 100m BOPD API drawdowns regular and Worldwide oil glut now gone Future oil shortfall now very likely due to historicial lack of investment. Rosneft has lent KRG up to 3$ billion Rosneft involved in massive exploration & development projects. Rosneft already building several Gas pipelines. New Chairman, New World class CFO, New Dynamic COO Payments now regular every month for 36 months in difficult circumstances Payment increases due to payment “R†factor worth over 400$ million Payment of another 25-30$ million due in coming month Free Cash flow huge over 140$ million last year and much higher this year. Over 80% of all shares owned by only 5 major institutions. Very small free float. Hard to buy large volumes on occasions. Upward Share price mirroring its downward spiral, much more to go. New Bond issue securing finance for 5 years. Some of lowest Production cost in the world. Market cap 3ish x less net assets. Debt free end of year. Breakeven at less than 20$ per Barrels. GKP now committed to increasing production spending over 200$ million Gazprom increasing production in Garmian Shamaran increasing production Atrush Peshkabir producing 30k BOPD any day now & higher by end of year. Peshkabir 4, 5,6 completed, testing and producing. Up to 5 new wells being drilled in Tawke to increase production in 2018. DNO committed to spending record Capex in 2018. 50% more than last year. Taq Taq new oil find confirmed, 145 meters deeper than thought possibly more to follow. Taq Taq CPR stating new reserves. Taq Taq major drilling due to be commenced now. Bina Bawi & Miran updated CPR showing huge increase in resource 27% + 78%. Bina Bawi recent site meeting, oil could be flowing within 6 months. New CPR No price or volume risk with either Gas fields Genel now financially able to go it alone on upstream project. No partner needed. Somaliland 2D Seismic being processed, drilling expected next year Somaliland massive basin akin to Yemin, unexplored. Somaliland potentially 2 Billion plus barrels of Oil. Somaliland huge port being built near our acreage
andrewblight1
18 Jun 2018
Drill Baby Drill So we have finished the first 6 Peshkabir wells now and should be pumping like hell. We may have started Pesh 7 or 8 by now. DNO said they wanted to hit 30k by summer so we should be there or more than… We have a total of 4 rigs so no idea what they are up to but hopefully Taq Taq drilling has been re-started. Could be huge or its on last legs… personally I think they will find plenty of oil in the flanks. There was a site visit to Bina Bawi recently so possibly something is a foot there. The surely must have finished or nearly testing the 2D at Somaliland and there were plans to drill there next year if results are positive. There is so so much going on plus huge monthly payments and cash flow and goodness knows whats happening in the wings with share holders, board members and other interested companies… We don’t even mention the Gas these days…but its there still. So although we aren’t likely to have any news until Aug …Blimey we are busy… Hawke
II Editor
29 May 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 29/05/2018 " FTSE THIS WEEK (FTSE:UKX) The index managed to complete last week with a somewhat dodgy nosedive, 4 points below an important sounding trigger level. It obviously creates the situation where we're all doomed! Continued weakness below RED - ..."[link]
