preciousmaj
14 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia According to a recent research report, out the seven wells to watch in 2018 Prospect S has the highest chance of success. The Cormorant-1 well has the lowest CoS @ 15% and Kosmos wells are around 20 to 25%. "Namibia: Two high-profile wells in 2018 Namibia remains a frontier exploration area, with only 15 wells drilled offshore to date, of which six have been drilled since 2012. The 1.4tcf Kudu gas field, discovered by Chevron in 1974, remains the country’s only commercial discovery. The breakthrough well for the presence of oil in the region was the HRT-operated Wingat-1 well drilled in 2013, which encountered two high-quality Aptian source rocks and the presence of light 38 - 42o API oil in thin bed reservoirs, though not in commercial quantities. HRT’s follow-up well, Murombe, found 39m of water wet reservoir with good porosity in the secondary Santonian target. Between them, these wells demonstrated that all the elements required for a working petroleum system are present in Namibia, although not yet found together in one well. Wingat and Murombe sit in PEL 82 in the central Walvis Basin, operated since 2016 by Galp Energia (40%) and partnered by ExxonMobil (40%) after it farmed into the licence in 2017. In 2018, drilling will return to Namibia with two wells planned in the central Walvis Basin: the Cormorant prospect, operated by Tullow, and Chariot’s Prospect S." "Prospect S: One of five Upper Cretaceous structures Prospect S sits in 1,650m of water in PEL 71 to the south of Wingat and Murombe. It is due to be drilled from mid-October 2018 by operator Chariot (65%) and partners AziNam (20%), NAMCOR (10%) and a Namibian BEE component of 5%. The well will target gross mean prospective resource of 459mmbbls independently assessed by NSAI, and is one of five, four-way, dip-closed structures identified by Chariot in the Upper Cretaceous turbidite fairway. Chariot has not yet secured a rig and is continuing to look for a farm-in partner for the well, although it can fund its share of drilling costs after raising US$15m through a placing and an additional US$2.5m through an open offer in March 2018. The licence area footprint is 16,000km2, of which 6,100km2 has 3D seismic coverage. The Murombe well encountered good-quality sands above the primary target and Prospect S will target these Cretaceous sands, which are draped over a volcanic structure at this location. The well has been designed to penetrate three separate sand bodies, S94, S102 and S106 (Exhibit 6).The thick, rich and mature Aptian source rock found in Wingat and Murombe has a characteristic seismic signature, which Chariot sees in its own licence at the same depth and so has inferred to be mature here. Prospect S has the lowest risk of the five identified four way dip closures with a COS of 29% (the COS of remaining prospects T,U,V and W ranges between 22% and 25%). The key risks are in the source and reservoir, which have been established in Wingat and Murombe, but uncertainty remains as to how this may have changed across the area. If Prospect S is successful, Chariot plans to move the rig to drill Prospect W back to back. Since the modelled charge for Prospects S, T and U is from the east, but from the west in Prospects V and W, this sequence of wells would allow the presence of charge in both areas to be tested. Prospect W is estimated to hold gross mean prospective resources of 284mmbbls with a COS of 25%."
Spitfire
14 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia Sorry to say this, GBP can spout all the potential resource numbers they like in Namibia and interesting to see they do it for the entire play and not on a single well…with a current 12% cos only I cannot see any partnering appetite unless gbp are willing to give a massive chunk of equity away for a partner to come in …there is risk and there is 12% cos…no Wells being drilled globally there ATM. TBH I am gobsmacked tullow is Drilling a 15% play… Would imagine if a partner came in for GBP, they would be left with circa 10-15% only…of a 12% cos drill… not a dig at GBP…
preciousmaj
14 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia Godspeed1: RD1 had 24%cos, prospect S has 29% cos RD1 was in Morocco and Prospect S is in Namibia near where the wingat well was drilled. Are you really saying that there is no difference between a prospect with 29% geological chance of success and 12%. I know that you will be defensive of your investment in GBP but please don’t ignore the facts. You’re mind seems clouded IMO. What is the purpose of calculating geological chance of success if it has no impact? You don’t just pick a spot anywhere and start drilling a well.
Godspeed1
14 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia RD1 had 24%cos, prospect S has 29% cos RD1 failed, are you saying Prospect S will be a winner, as cos is 5% greater ?
preciousmaj
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia Godspeed1: Not saying it is irrelevant, just saying it a wildcat well is a flip of a coin, whether 12% or 29% If that was the case then there’s no point getting an independent assessment. The geological chance of success is very important, have a read of this to see the different criteria for determining probability of geological success: [link]
preciousmaj
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia Godspeed1: Gemsbok is 12% That’s why you are suggesting that the chance of success is irrelevant.
Godspeed1
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia What was the cos of RD1 ? Gemsbok is 12% , but the nearest well was 100km away, if a well was drilled closer and source has been proven cos would be closer to 25% It is one thing estimating from seismic, but the drill bit tells the facts Farming into a frontier play will be discounted until a commercial discovery and for a major to spend £15/£20m on a prospect of 3.66bln potential is small change BP paid Serica £50m for 3D seismic and then decided to walk away, but they had bigger issues at the time
preciousmaj
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia The chance of success is a major factor when farming out or looking at investment. I don’t know about you but I would rather be invested in a prospect with a 29% chance of success rather than 15%.
preciousmaj
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia What’s the chance of success of the GBP prospect?
Godspeed1
13 Jun 2018
Ocean Rig drillship mobilized to Tullow’s well off Namibia At the end of the day, both are still wildcat wells Cos on Char’s RD1 was higher and still came up dry The pure fact that hardly any wells have been drilled in Namibia increases risk However, Tullow have found oil where others have failed and lets hope they have a handle on things in Namibia GBP’s Gemsbok prospect in PEL 29, one of many has 1.76bln barrels and mid case for the block of 3.66 bln barrels mid case and have a M/cap of £4m
Godspeed
08 Jun 2018
Re: Deal Example Looks like they maybe looking for stock againSell limit @ 350k currently for 1.95pOn the ASX can sell 1m @ 30centsLooking good imo
Godspeed
29 May 2018
Eco Eco applied for clearance for drilling PEL30 back in NovemberThey are also partnered with TullowIf Char don't hurry up I can see Eco jumping the queue for the Poseidon
Godspeed
24 May 2018
Paul Howlett GBP "Global Petroleum: Hunting Giants in Namibia with New Source & Reservoir ModelsPaul Howlett, Exploration Advisor, Global Petroleum, London"Didn't realise he was presenting for this Global PetMore write ups to follow, I would guess[link]
Winnet
23 May 2018
Re: Quarterly report due Topped up again today. Expecting news soon.
