oldjoe1
31 Jan 2017
FXPO, HUGE BROKER UPGRADE........ FXPO Ferrexpo..... big big upgrade from Broker JP Morgan, nearly a 100% increase in forecast SP target.Ferrexpo PLC FXPO JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 146.15 144.00 105.00 205.00 Upgrades105p to 205p
tasagil
28 Jan 2017
13% Stake sold Traders said Deutsche Bank had successfully placed a block of 78m shares (about 13%) with institutional investors. The seller was Czech billionaire Zdenek Baklava, who has now liquidated his stake in the company.Mr Bakala owned 25% of the company in 2008 (he offloaded 63m a couple of months ago).The latest sale is important for two reasons. It will lift Ferrexpo's free float to almost 50 per cent, making it more accessible for investors. At the same time, the sale will also increase its weighting in the FTSE 250, forcing index tracking funds to buy more shares.Precis from Financial Times Article.
onedb1
25 Jan 2017
Re: Wow!! What is going on I posted future price action days in advance 
Take a look at my posts and chart . This will move up much further IMO . From here till March I can't see why the market will wait for what I believe will be much better than 2015 EPS( earnings per share) and on a current P/E ratio I'd expect to reach 200p . On a forward one instead given iron ore prices, one could be even more optimistic .
jey80
25 Jan 2017
Wow!! What is going on ??
onedb1
23 Jan 2017
My latest chart for those interested Support today was once again perfect , and once again we got a bullish engulfing candle [link] my notes . Am staying Long . With iron ore prices so high , I'd expect from here till results in March to see this progress nicely On a fundamentals view 2016 EPS should have improved a lot in H2 vs H1 on 2016 and we know that H1 2016 was quite similar to H1 2015 , EPS for 2015 were around 20p so I'd expect something closer to 30p for 2016 full year , due to the good H2 . On a P/E ratio of 6 or 7 that would give 180 to 210 . On current prices one could expect an even higher P/E ratio as forward guidance just based on this first month of Jan if all is solid till March would allow for higher P/E ratios IMO . ( as always just my opinion but backed with basic EPS and P/E projections , substantiated by the reality of H2 vs H1 2016 and comparing it to 2015 figures . ) All available on Ferrexpo web site. Also I'd expect to reduce the Net Debt to EBITDA ratio by quite a bit and continue to do so for a while . That will make things even more solid for Ferrexpo's balance sheet Time will tell, I have several longs started at 70p ish . For a short view my guess is that the red line of support that I have drawn will have to be breached . That will be the start of possible a bearish break out , but would need confirmation . As trend is up.
onedb1
23 Jan 2017
beautiful price action ! Bullish engulfing candle once again on support line I'd expect 142 next level to get tested , once down we are going to go back to retest the recent highs ! GO FXPO ! love this chart .
onedb1
15 Jan 2017
Long Ferrexpo and staying so I reckon we'll get close to Deutsche B target of around 205p set in Nov 2016. Iron ore demand is at all time record in China ( helped by closures and stricter pollution rules ) Above all current prices are much higher than what has been achieved on average in 2016 hence with the current record production we will have sales at the current $78-80 range for 62% FE . Much higher than $58.5 ( see below extract from the RNS ) which alone helped towards cash balances of $145m for 2016 vs $35m in Dec 2015 . So at current levels of iron prices FXPO cash generation should be flying . Extract from RNS here below The Group's average pellet price in 2016 increased slightly compared to 2015, reflecting a recovery in the 62% Fe iron ore fines price during the year (average 2016 US$58.5 per tonne) compared to 2015 (average US$55.5 per tonne) and a steadily improving pellet premium following lows reached in 1Q 2016.Staying Long for now
5 Iron
09 Jan 2017
Looking good I think! 15p - This time last year- low iron prices, FXPO bank collapsed, civil war- a bad scenario all round but then reduced costs, increase production, increasing ore prices,big increase in cash reserves, relative peace, devaluation of cost base currency- wow its all coming together!Climbed up to £1.50 last month, just paused for breath and now ready for the next push upwards. What levels could it reach £2, £3, £4? - it was, not so long ago and giving a decent dividend too. I think I will be holding on to these babies this year in the hope of at least getting back to £3 and reintroduction of a divi.
onedb1
09 Jan 2017
Pretty strong q4 vs q3 [link] see if the recent consolidation will now be the base to reach the first target of 165-170 then into the 200s later in the year. The company is going in the right direction .
onedb1
03 Jan 2017
Iron ore prices looking good $79/80 for iron ore fines 62% . Price stalls a bit but retrace is nearly a text book one so following my predicted pattern . So that gives me great confidence that my long will reach 165-170 on the next leg up . Good reward to be had for now Production figures out this week or next based on historical reporting pattern With the recent rise in iron ore prices and a stable level for now cash creation will have been brilliant .
ookyfly
23 Dec 2016
Re: Also to note the FTSE 250 On the one hand.......On the other......We shall indeed see!Merry Xmas, Onedb. TAKE A BREAK AND UNWIND!!! It's only money. Time passes and the clock cannot be wound back.
onedb1
21 Dec 2016
Re: Also to note the FTSE 250 Went a bit down this pm . Liquidity has fallen this week in line with the Christmas break coming up . Never makes me happy to see a down day but as I said iron ore prices are looking very good and way above break even for FXPO for quite a prolonged period now . I assume that at some point they could revert lower to the $60/70s but that would still be great . I had a long good run here . But am fairly optimistic that the run has quite a bit to go . January will be a better barometer for all shares than this week Could be right or wrong we shall see.
ookyfly
21 Dec 2016
Re: Also to note the FTSE 250 Onedb,Many thanks. Actually, I find I have £70k worth, not £50k! My first tranche, 29000, is in handsome profit; my second very modestly so. But blue is blue and I'm feeling very positive.Ooky
onedb1
21 Dec 2016
Re: Also to note the FTSE 250 Hi OOk Nice position size I would normally trade it in 4s, so £12.5k * 4 scaling up if possible based on my own formula. Do the same coming out though I am less strict on the exit . Iron Ore 62% is still super high at $79/80 . That is quite incredible . We are due a production report first week of Jan as per usual ( Q4 and if you take a look at prices in this quarter they have been the highest quarter since early 2015 I'd say . Give or take . )Their financials are surely improving . Look at the average cost of sales in H1 2016 and then think that prices were a lot lower and look at Q4 prices. Cash generation must have really been good this quarter. This H2 should have been really good all together and i can't wait for the release of that info . Chart wise its no change in my view and is still on track , seen nothing to change my mind so far , 165-170 and we may then see a retrace on profit taking followed by another run to pass 200p . ( I haven't charted a Wave 5 yet for this target so 200p is just a rough view it could go much higher ) . I am just hoping that since the 70s this continues to be in line with my technical view . As always place a stop on entry then if moving to profit move it to a trailing stop .
ookyfly
19 Dec 2016
Re: Also to note the FTSE 250 Onedb,Let'/ hope you are right! I just bought another 21400 at 136.936. Now hold a little over £50k worth.Ooky
