Futura Medical Live Discussion

trump53 22 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap 1 The most important point I am making, is that WT Lamb raised their stakeholding to the minimum level which allowed them, (should they so wish), to require FUM’s directors to call a general meeting to discuss a WT Lamb resolution. Any of the three holders holding at least 5% can (via the Companies Act 2006 - Section 303) require FUM directors to call a general meeting. This might be necessary to resolve an issue or issues concerning the future of MED2005, or FUM, or a license. 2 When an individual or company passes a three percent shareholding threshold, it is required they notify the company of such interest. Four names are mentioned on the website, together with their percentage holding. Each has notified the company of a greater than three percent holding, (else they would not be so listed on the website).

smashing1 22 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap R A Lamb is also the boss’ father-in-law.

smashing1 22 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap Interesting point you’re making there trump. R A Lamb is an individual, and a director of W T Lamb Investments Ltd: Company Check MR ROBIN ANTONY LAMB's director profile. Review key details about current and... Get instant details of company financials, CCJs, mortgages and charges, shareholder equity and credit risk scores for all companies associated with MR ROBIN ANTONY LAMB.

Lastemporer 22 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap Well is this true even if RA Lamb + WT Lamb Investments Limited are the same people? technically before they already owned more than 5% of the company.

trump53 22 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap On 08.11.2019, WT Lamb Investments Ltd increased their FUM shareholding from 4.49% to 5.0%, requiring Futura to issue an RNS confirming the new shareholding. This was done on Monday 11.11.2019. FUM’s total number of issued shares is 204,660,267. A 5.0% shareholding = 10,233,013.35 shares. WT Lamb’s shareholding increased to 10,233,015 shares, according to the RNS. When shareholders pass a 5% shareholding, they are eligible under section 303 of the Companies Act to require company directors (should they wish) to call a general meeting. The Companies Act 2006 - Section 303 - Members’ power to require directors to call general meeting. ref: [link] "The directors are required to call a general meeting once the company has received requests to do so from — (a) members representing at least [5%] of such of the paid-up capital of the company as carries the right of voting at general meetings of the company (excluding any paid-up capital held as treasury shares)" - FUM I believe has no treasury shares. While it was nice to see WT Lamb increase their shareholding, I feel the ability to require directors to call a general meeting was the reason that the WT Lamb holding is now 1 share above 5.0%. So a situation might now occur where shareholders are required to meet to discuss a WT Lamb resolution. This might be necessary if the phase 3 study is successful, and a bun fight starts over licensing, or MED 2005 / FUM ownership between large pharma. Other large shareholders also have the above option: As at 22.11.2019: Lombard Odier 12.96%. T Adams 6.98% WT Lamb 5.0% but not R A Lamb 4.68%

trump53 21 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap Since 27.03.2018, Viagra has been available OTC in UK. One of the reasons for this is because UK government wanted to ease the stress being placed on the NHS due to self diagnosed ED sufferers taking pills purporting to be Viagra purchased from unregulated sources. At the bottom of one of the recent Futura RNS’s was a reference to a 17 page 2008 European Medicines Agency report titled “WITHDRAWAL ASSESSMENT REPORT FOR VIAGRA”. It details the reasons why Viagra availabile OTC was not a good idea. It is not easy reading, but persevering with it demonstrates why Glyceryl Trinitrate administered topically with Dermasys ‘could catch on’. ema.europa.eu withdrawal-assessment-report-viagra_en.pdf 228.26 KB

smashing1 20 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap See my posts of a few days ago: Am thinking we’re going to see another LOAM TR-1 fairly soon. Lower their risk and take a bit more profit. Or Adams may do the same, wouldn’t take much for him to drop below 7%. To see R A Lamb come up through 5% would be best of course but we shall see. Hurrah, am getting more savvy! GLA

trump53 17 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap I have some feedback for you on your MED2005 prescription market calcs Aberdeen. You state ‘peak sales for the prescription market is stated as in excess of 500 million dollars, it will take some time to achieve it’ I agree, it will take some time to achieve. The 500 million dollar estimation you quote is not new, so I have tried to calculate a quick and dirty current estimate. source: [link] - page 13 refers. “ED prescription (Rx) market worth over US$5.6 billion in 2016 (note2 refers), (up 6% vs 2015)” “Note 2 - Market size with sales based on Manufacturers’ Selling Prices 2016: 15 Key ED markets, IMS Health”- so I have assumed a global prescription market. If I extrapolate a 6% increase per annum in market worth since 2016, I get: 2016 (up 6% v 2015) = US$5.6 Billion. 2017 = 2016 * 1.06 = US$ 5.936 Billion 2018 = 2017 * 1.06 = US$ 6.292 Billion 2019 = 2018 * 1.06 = US$ 6.667 Billion Therefore 2020 prescription global market worth could be forecast as 2019 * 1.06 = US$ 7.067 Billion. OK so far, onward and upward: “Market research conducted on behalf of Futura by leading healthcare strategy firm Cello Health Consulting (“Cello”) showed that MED2005 has the potential to be a first line treatment option for ED and could capture over 20% patient share”. - source: [link] A 20% patient share of a global market conservatively forecast to be worth US$7.067 Billion in 2020, = US$ 1.4134 Billion. As you say, the 20% market share would not be achieved short term. So the 200 million US dollars you use in your calculation, (being 2/5ths of the ‘in excess of 500 million dollars’ peak sales prescription market you mention - because of a gradual increase to 20% market share), might become: Forecast 2020 Global market value = US$ 7.067 Billion. Cello Health Consulting’s ‘over 20%’ patient share of 2020 Global market value = US$ 1.4134 Billion minimum. 2/5 * US$ 1.4134 Billion = US$ 0.5653 Billion. I would assume that Barders team would use a similar (conservative) extrapolation on which to base present market worth in negotiations. I can feel a caveat for the above calcs, but I have made sure no OTC data has crept in. Please advise if I have made a blunder. I recall use of a sale price of $5 per dose, but it turns out that was used in data concerning OTC sales, and prescriptions are not normally free, except for you in Scotland, and I believe in Wales. Hope all is well in 'Eyrak, as the yanks refer to Iraq!

Lastemporer 16 Nov 2019

Primary bid Could be a lot more in a few weeks, the P3 trial results will be out. which was what the PB was raised for.

Aberdeen_investor 16 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap Not sure pharmatom, but you’re probably right. The reason for me asking these question was to do with potential Market Cap. When I saw the Liberium predicted share price , I was slightly disappointed to be honest. But upon further evaluation, I realise it does not account for any licensing deal. The reason I state this is because consider the following case If you assume a royalty rate of 25% on sales (which is the normal practice and not profits.) and although peak sales for the prescription market is stated as in excess of 500 million dollars, it will take some time to achieve it, so for now assume 200 million dollars. 25% royalty rate means an income of 50 million dollars. Take out an operating expense of 5 million dollars per year leaves 45 million dollars. Assume 220 million shares to account for any minor dilution. If you then consider that the pharma sector gets support through tax-efficient schemes such as the Patent Box and R&D credits, many UK pharmaceuticals companies will therefore pay an effective corporation tax rate of between 11% and 13% from 2020 onwards. Assuming 13 percent corporation tax, gives an earning per share of $0.1779. Assuming a PE ratio of 15, gives a forecasted share price of $2.67 which if I convert to pounds is just over 2 pounds. That’s on sales of 200 million dollars hence why I think the forecasted share price does not take into account any licensing deal. Feel free to correct me if I’ve got something drastically wrong?? Just need to get some excellent phase 3 data now.

Ripley94 16 Nov 2019

Primary bid FUM… XXXX 34p now looks like the best PB offer.

Pharmatom 16 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap Indeed. Weren’t these 2 amounts not the possible upfront?

Pharmatom 16 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap (post withdrawn by author, will be automatically deleted in 24 hours unless flagged)

Aberdeen_investor 16 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap It was 25 percent pharmatom.

Pharmatom 15 Nov 2019

Thoughts on Future Market Cap 30 mil Europe and 60 USA ?