LK Hyman
21 Jul 2016
Re: Re:Games Bang on the button Idontwantto,I agree with you that the spread on FSTA is lousy. What makes me invest in them rather than Marstons or Greene King nevertheless is the outstanding quality of FSTA's estate. A high proportion of pubs in Central London and within the M25 and in the prosperous south east. No spit 'n sawdust boozers with one old bloke in it with a whippet and a flat hat nursing half a pint of Newkie Brown and a packet of pork scratchings all night.And summat like 88% of the estate is owned freehold.You gotta pay for qualidee ... and FSTA is qualidee.LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
idontwanttolose
21 Jul 2016
Re: Re:Games Bang on the button Games IMO you were right, Bang on the button, wait until the directors start to buy.The other problem I have with FSTA is the spread 47p difference between buying and sellingFSTA Bid:952.5p Offer:999.5p Change:-37.69I hold Mars bought on the Brexit result the spread MARS Bid:138.5p Offer:139p Change:1.4is 0.4 of 1pI also hold GNK bought on the Brexit result the spread GNK Bid:787.5p Offer:788p Change
is 0.5 of 1pIMO they are both a more compelling buy that FSTA!!As always DYOR
smilingmickey1
21 Jul 2016
Re: Trading statement LKH,The trading statement read like "we are spending lots of capital." Not much in the way of increased sales despite the expensive refurbs.Good luck!SM
LK Hyman
21 Jul 2016
Trading statement Managed sales up 2%, tenanted sales down 2%. Beer and cider volumes down 5%.On the face of it not that impressive, but it suggests to me that falling booze sales are being replaced by higher margin food sales, so that's all right.Good to see new Stable outlets being opened and the new pub sounds like a winner.I wouldn't mind a bit more in the way of a divi, but the asset backing for this puppy is outstanding, notwithstanding a likely decline in pub values .... which will throw up more opportunities for Fullers to expand.All in all, happy to hold.LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
LK Hyman
18 Jul 2016
Re: In for more Oh, and by the way, in case anyone checks the trades and thinks "Blimey, I thought LK was a playa, but there have been precious few shares traded today", my purchase, for some odd reason, does not show up on ii's trades page.LKH etc setting the record str8
LK Hyman
18 Jul 2016
In for more "The share price is getting down near the point where I may be tempted to add to the current 2% of my shrunken wad which FSTA represents."I piled in for some more at 995p today. Decided I couldn't be arsed to wait any longer for a possibly lower entry point. FSTA is now 5.2% of the wad.May seem a bit daft, what with property prices expected to fall and (more or less) all revenue in £, and many people predicting recession, which would likely hit up-market London pubs and hotels like Fullers quite hard. However, as Tony Blair said, albeit in a different context: "Whatever!"The asset backing for this puppy is rock solid, my humble.LKH at Rancho
gamesinvestor
11 Jul 2016
Re: probably wise to wait until the directors start buying again :-Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value04-Aug-15 Sell Simon Emeny 1,180.00p 1,700 £20,060.0030-Jul-15 Sell Jonathon Swaine 1,159.00p 8,430 £97,703.7030-Jul-15 Sell Ian Bray 1,159.00p 9,777 £113,315.4330-Jul-15 Sell James Douglas 1,159.00p 17,061 £197,736.9930-Jul-15 Sell Richard Fuller 1,159.00p 8,112 £94,018.08Games
LK Hyman
07 Jul 2016
Re: £10 CashQuack,I too will remain invested here. Doubtless the current weakness is partly due to fears that commercial property valuation weakness will extend to Fuller's largely freehold estate of pubs and hotels, and concern that, with no $ earnings to boost their £ bottom line and the possibility that Brexit will see their staff wages bill rise as Europeans leave the south east, earnings per share may be weak for the medium term.As Tony Bliar said "Whatever!"This remains a fine, safe integrated company with outstanding brands, a pretty strong balance sheet, an estate which is undervalued by Mr Market, and an enthusiastic and high quality management team.The share price is getting down near the point where I may be tempted to add to the current 2% of my shrunken wad which FSTA represents. No big rush though.LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
CashQuack
06 Jul 2016
Re: £10 FST have managed an 8% per annum growth in dividend for several years without ever reducing their cover ratio. They seem good at increasing growth in their like for like sales and retain a fair chunk of profits for re-investment. Their pub numbers are in the region of 400, well short of the 500 where the laws change to their disadvantage. They are also not sentimental about selling off the occasional inn although they are also one of the most responsible brewers in their relationship with their tenants. Their estate is also very focussed on the South East and naturally I visit many of their pubs on my travels. The family retain control and thus take a long term view. This is still one of the surest things on the stock market, and investors should take the long term view. 8% compounded means a doubling of income every nine years. I for one, with my paltry 200 shares, will continue to enjoy their beers and pubs and stay invested!
smilingmickey1
01 Jul 2016
Re: £10 I've decide to "rebalance" my portfolio. Maybe folks will be drowning their sorrows but I have the feeling that many will be tightening their belts. Whilst a (temporary) reduction in sales growth may not matter to the intrinsic value of Fuller in the long term, it may result in a reduced PE rating.What ever will happen to that Iconic brand taken over by events of our time?
gamesinvestor
29 Jun 2016
£10 Seems to have broken below this a couple of times now.The trend is still down 1233 peak in March 2015.With the current share price at 991 (fluctuating) it's approx a 1.9% yield, but the yield is 3X covered which is excellent.P/E is still up at 18, pretty high for an anticipated earnings growth of 2%, but I guess these measures are a bit subjective.The final divi has been had, so has this taken some of the fiz out of the beer perhaps?The ratio of borrowings to after tax profit of 185/33 at 5.6X that keeps me away from this one at the mo. Games -- still watching
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Tesco proud to support London Pride Tesco has issued a press release to say that it is supporting London Pride.This is excellent news! One hopes that all other beers will be cleared from the shelves of Tesco except the eponymous and delicious Fuller's brand.I feel a song coming on![link] on the flybridge tracking steadily north east
gamesinvestor
20 Jun 2016
Re: Fullers valuation "Vote Remain leaves the Brexit option open for later if Mutti Merkel doesn't dance to Cammy's tune "Cammy only has one tune and it's subservient to Merky Merkle.Games -- God help us if we get a narrow remain vote -- the champagne corks will be popping all over Brussels (at EU tax payers expense of course) and then the UK will be severely ostracised, in a political wilderness on the sidelines of Brussels as it forges ahead with a political and fiscal EU union - and to hexx with it's citizens -- The goal is all that matters, the economic consequences are a sideline as long as we the EU masters rule. In fact the bigger the economic mess in each country and the more unemployment rises the better for these guys, as it gives it an easier ride in subjugating it's member countries into total loss of sovereignty and subservience to EU loans and soon to be under the control of an EU army.Danger!!, what danger?
LK Hyman
20 Jun 2016
Re: Fullers valuation Mickey,"cashing in on the value of the land at Chiswick"It's certainly a valuable chunk of real estate but the Fullers site doesn't extend as far as the river, so perhaps it's not THAT valuable.I suspect that the bu55eration of moving to a cheaper site in London wouldn't be worth it. Probably best to keep the Chiswick brewery pro tem. Apart from anything else that always leaves the "sell up and cash in" option available, rather as Vote Remain leaves the Brexit option open for later if Mutti Merkel doesn't dance to Cammy's tune whereas Brexit means "Gone for ever".LKH on the flybridge
smilingmickey1
20 Jun 2016
Re: Fullers valuation FWIW, shares magazine on Thursday had a full page article extolling the virtues of Fullers. HoweverIt gave its net debt/ebitda ratio as around 3. I'm fairly sure that Young's figure is around 2. I'm not sure at what point city number crunchers take fright, but obviously Youngs would be viewed as lower risk that Fullers just now.I do recall that not too long ago Young's was a business which gave much importance to its in house brewing. Both seem great businesses to me, but I can't escape the thought that Fuller will not be able to continue to increase its debt at as swift a rate in the coming years as a means of increasing EPS/profit year on year without a drop in its valuation.Fuller's Brewery is located on a very nice piece of real estate. It would be interesting to know whether they have ever considered moving the operation to a cheaper site, and cashing in on the value of the land at Chiswick and calling the new housing estate something like "Pride of London!"
