LK Hyman
13 Sep 2016
Re: Greene King v Fuller Smith & Turner Games,"hope you liked the reference to "qualidee""I did, m8, I did indeed. It's qualidee that one has to pay for, as someone once remarked ... possibly more than once, come to think of it.I'd like to see Fullers merge with another family firm, such as Shepherd Neame or Young's and ripping the eyeballs out of the combined cost structure.Don't s'pose it'll ever happen ... these family firms are protective of their DNA!LKH on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
13 Sep 2016
Re: Greene King v Fuller Smith & Turner LK -- Good response, hope you liked the reference to "qualidee", which I expected would be in your mind. Sometimes the gut feel and soft factor is enough.I'd like to own both, but am on the fence with FSTA because of the price, but maybe I'll wait forever.GNK seems overly beaten up at the mo, so decided to take a punt.I'll be watching, and drinking London Pride and Old Speckled Hen (one of the finest from Greene King), and eventually I might just own both.Games
LK Hyman
13 Sep 2016
Re: Greene King v Fuller Smith & Turner Games,Good stuff, m8.What tips me in favour of FSTA over GNK is a soft factor rather than your extremely useful and interesting numbers ... namely that, anecdotally, I feel that the location of the "average" FSTA pub, inn and hotel is "better" ... ie in a richer area ... than that of GNK. London and the south east and the south are where the money is ... and where Fullers' boozers are.Scroll through the almost 400 Fullers' venues on their website and there are some spectacularly valuable chunks of real estate there ... and that's in addition to the Chiswick brewery site. Although the latter doesn't go all the way down to the river it has a lot of potential value as a development site in the event that Fullers ever decides that brewing outside London is the way to go.I recognise that, with "London Pride" as their flagship brand it would be a tough call to shift brewing outside the capital but still ....LKH on the flybridge sticking with Fullers over Greene King despite his love of Bury St Edmunds
gamesinvestor
13 Sep 2016
Re: Greene King v Fuller Smith & Turner sorry - please ignore duplication hereGames
gamesinvestor
13 Sep 2016
Greene King v Fuller Smith & Turner Hi -- I posted this also on the FSTA board :-Anyone here a holder of both?Some might say it's all about quality or (qualidee) and that a FSTE venue trumps a Greene King joint. Although GNK does have Loch Fyne.Snob factor apart, are there some other factors to consider:-1. Operating margins -- at 12-13% FSTA are actually lower than GNK at 16-18%2. Dividend - GNK = 4.5% ---- FSTA = 1.9% ---- both over 2X covered3. P/E --- FSTA = 17.1 ---- GNK is down at 10.1%4. Projected earnings growth - FSTA - 3-4% -- GNK = 4-6% ---- both relatively low.5. Net Gearing -- FSTA = 104% --- GNK = 109% --- not much in it.6. % off 52 week high ---- FSTA - down 15% ---- GNK -- down 20%7. Borrowings / post tax profit --- FSTA = 184/33= 5.5X --- GNK=190/2400=7.9X8. ROCE -- FSTA =8.4% -- GNK = 10.75%9. Consistent growth quality - over 5 years both consistent at FSTA 8% and GNK at 10%Debt is higher stretched for GNK, so that is a -ve factor, but on all other points, GNK looks a reasonable and possibly more attractive opportunity.Games -- starting to pop a few bob into GNK -- small self interest declared, welcome feedback !!
gamesinvestor
12 Sep 2016
FSTA v Greene King Anyone here a holder of both?Some might say it's all about quality or (qualidee) and that a FSTE venue trumps a Greene King joint. Although GNK does have Loch Fyne.Snob factor apart, are there some other factors to consider:-1. Operating margins -- at 12-13% FSTA are actually lower than GNK at 16-18%2. Dividend - GNK = 4.5% ---- FSTA = 1.9% ---- both over 2X covered3. P/E --- FSTA = 17.1 ---- GNK is down at 10.1%4. Projected earnings growth - FSTA - 3-4% -- GNK = 4-6% ---- both relatively low.5. Net Gearing -- FSTA = 104% --- GNK = 109% --- not much in it.6. % off 52 week high ---- FSTA - down 15% ---- GNK -- down 20%7. Borrowings / post tax profit --- FSTA = 184/33= 5.5X --- GNK=190/2400=7.9X8. ROCE -- FSTA =8.4% -- GNK = 10.75%9. Consistent growth quality - over 5 years both consistent at FSTA 8% and GNK at 10%Debt is higher stretched for GNK, so that is a -ve factor, but on all other points, GNK looks a reasonable and possibly more attractive opportunity.Games -- starting to pop a few bob into GNK -- small self interest declared, welcome feedback !!
LK Hyman
26 Aug 2016
Re: Price Monitoring Extension ITDYA,"may I have a pint of ESB please?"Make mine a Frontier or a Cornish Orchard Cider!On the rare occasions I find mesen in Blighty I'm always amazed to see the Californian beer Sierra Nevada in Waitrose. Fullers are the UK agent for it but I can't believe there's much money in it for them. It seems a little surprising that they can't somehow licence the brand and brew the stuff in Chiswick, using whatever hops and ingredients the Yanks use. Seems crazy to ship the stuff in boxes over from California.Likewise why can't they licence some mob over in Lardassland to brew Fullers there?Just a thought. Perhaps the strength of the various brands is such that you lose authenticity if you brew it away from Chiswick or wherever Sierra Nevada brews in California. It doesn't seem to harm Guinness, though, which is brewed in all sorts of outlandish places in the bundu out Africa's way, without harming its image so far as one can tell.LKH on the flybridge
LK Hyman
26 Aug 2016
Re: Price Monitoring Extension ITDYA,"It's never going to be hugely popular with the institutions due to the share structure (unless they change it someday when these A shares would instantly fly)."I tend to agree. It's the share structure which makes my liking of the asset backing almost irrelevant. If I were a family member I wouldn't change the structure because the ability to swat off any bid easily must be hugely attractive and must also make planning for the long term, which is what family-owned businesses are good at and like to do, a lot easier.Neverthless I'm still comfortable with the shares and appreciate that strong asset backing. It would be nice, though, to see a bit more in the way of a divi to compensate me for the absence of the likelihood of a bid.Agree with you that, at around a tenner, this is good value.LKH on the flybridge
In the dark yet again
26 Aug 2016
Re: Price Monitoring Extension "the norm"...... not always easy to define.FSTA is usually pretty illiquid; volumes very small, bid/offer pretty wide. The EoD price monitoring tries to find a price at which outstanding orders can be matched but, particularly with illiquid stocks, sometimes there is no bid or no offer on the books so where do they mark it then? Probably push a tiny trade through at a ridiculous price between market makers (often with an unofficial agreement to unwind it first thing next day with no profit/loss) - I guess technically a breach of the rules but one to which a blind eye will probably be turned as everyone needs the books closed off for the day. I see nothing particularly sinister here.And next day, with the market back trading, back where we were with something more 'realistic'.Personally I reckon FTSA at about a tenner represents good value; no instant slam dunk, very solid with limited downside but reasonable potential. It's never going to be hugely popular with the institutions due to the share structure (unless they change it someday when these A shares would instantly fly).As for unbroken downward, I bought at 995 5 weeks ago and it hasn't really gone anywhere at all so I guess unbroken downward is now broken? One for the bottom draw, sit, relax and wait.... in the meantime, may I have a pint of ESB please?Regards,ITDYA
gamesinvestor
25 Aug 2016
Price Monitoring Extension [link] sure I fully grasp this, but the price monitoring was extended by 5 minutes tonight due to what looks like something other than the norm experienced under the automated system.The result of whatever happened caused FSTA to drop almost 5%Games - this stock is still on a steady downtrend, which has remained unbroken from October 2015 --- some 10 months.
LK Hyman
08 Aug 2016
Re: Poor attitude! Markettimer,"they have not sold all of their A shares they have only sold those that are necessary to settle the the Tax/NIC that is due on the shares awarded."They have sold all the A shares issued under this tranche of the LTIP. Look at the column marked "40p A shares released to participant" and you'll see that in the case of the three musketeers the number is zero. So some shares were sold to meet tax and NIC and the rest were all sold because Eminem and the two others (except for Swaine) decided to sell the lot.So there.LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
markettimer
30 Jul 2016
Re: Poor attitude! LKH they have not sold all of their A shares they have only sold those that are necessary to settle the the Tax/NIC that is due on the shares awarded."To facilitate the financing of the resultant tax liability arising on these awards, the Trustees have also sold in the market on behalf of each Director a proportion of the A ordinary shares originally awarded at 9.10 per share".---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -----A RNS announces that three of four directors, including Eminem and the head bean counter have sold all of the A shares that they were recently awarded as part of the LTIP scheme. The fourth director (Swaine) kept all his, though.All four of them kept the B shares also awarded as part of the LTIP, but that is less significant than the sale of their A shares because the B shares are not listed.This sends a poor signal to the market about the three musketeers' attitude towards the value of their stake in FSTA.I'm still holding my shares.LKH at Rancho Hyman so that's all right
LK Hyman
30 Jul 2016
Poor attitude! A RNS announces that three of four directors, including Eminem and the head bean counter have sold all of the A shares that they were recently awarded as part of the LTIP scheme. The fourth director (Swaine) kept all his, though.All four of them kept the B shares also awarded as part of the LTIP, but that is less significant than the sale of their A shares because the B shares are not listed.This sends a poor signal to the market about the three musketeers' attitude towards the value of their stake in FSTA.I'm still holding my shares.LKH at Rancho Hyman so that's all right
LK Hyman
22 Jul 2016
Re: Re:Games Bang on the button ITDYA,"that's what they said about Punch and Enterprise a few years back."I never said that about Punch or Enterprise. They own mostly spit 'n sawdust wet boozers don't they? Look at FSTA's website, where you can scroll through a list and a thumbnail pic of each of their pubs and hotels. So many of them are incredibly well located, and are iconic buildings in their own right. And Fullers owns most of the freeholds.[link] at Rancho
In the dark yet again
22 Jul 2016
Re: Re:Games Bang on the button LKH,"What makes me invest in them rather than Marstons or Greene King nevertheless is the outstanding quality of FSTA's estate"Uumm??? Let me think about that one; oh yeah, that's what they said about Punch and Enterprise a few years back. How time change.Me, I'm in. have been for a while but for the most stupid of reasons: I like their beer and I like their pubs. Thankfully I am not alone.MARS: all about the finance and cost of debt vs the unique angle they are taking on what they distribute and how they do it. Risk? For me, not worried about the debt in the short/medium term but mainly that they could get caught in the middle; no interest (ability?) in competing on price with the mega brewers and products not competitive with the micro boys.... and trust me, it's a fabulous product the micros are producing.Greene King? No clue. The Abbot on a good day was a fine pint but the local (few) pubs compel absolutely no one.Regards,ITDYA, on 'duty' til 5:30 then sharpish to the pub. Freehouse, Irish manager, selling an immaculate of Diageo black.
