Jay053
11 Sep 2017
Re: This now looks vulnerable... I think IF the SP has a correction that's an opportunity to top up.The earthquake was felt in Mexico City which no Major damage was caused (broken windows, power cuts)I suspect after safety/structural inspections of the mines there wont be any serious damage caused by the earthquake.The most southern mines are situated in Zacatecas state which is north of Mexico city by 300 miles.From Mexico City to the worst affected town of Juchitan de Zaragoza is 450 miles.IMO I'm certainly no earthquake expert.
sasa43
11 Sep 2017
This now looks vulnerable... to me, following last weeks dreadful earthquake off Mexico's southern border. As far as I can tell, half their mines are located in that region, so some disruption seems inevitable as the damage reports come in....Until matters are clarified, I'm out as a defensive measure - sasa.
sasa43
29 Aug 2017
Re: FRESNILLO GAP UP AND BREAKOUT>>>... Yep, agree with that, oldjoe - the AU / AG ratio remains positive for silver, too, at 75 although FRES is as much a 50 / 50 gold and silver producer these days, despite still being regarded as mainly a silver play - nice, though, to have both running for us....sasa.
oldjoe1
29 Aug 2017
FRESNILLO GAP UP AND BREAKOUT>>>> FRES Fresnillo, impressive gap up and breakout this morning on back of increase in silver SP. Forward P/E 25.6 usually in mid 30s. Cheap.
sasa43
28 Aug 2017
Should be a good opening... tomorrow for FRES and the like - Gold's pushed impressively through $1,300 in the US today with AG even stronger in NY, so let's hope the seasonal run is getting going - sasa.
II Editor
21 Aug 2017
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II Editor
10 Aug 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Do the math: Making a profitable arbitrage model is kids' stuff "For many people maths is one of the worst and most confusing things in life. Having studied it for the past 10 years, I agree. But, unfortunately, it's also hugely important and relevant in nearly every aspect of life, especially finance. In ..."[link]
the old trout
01 Aug 2017
Re: Steady progress, as per ...and gold now making the next leg upwards this afternoon. Perfect timing FRES.T
sasa43
01 Aug 2017
Steady progress, as per the interims out this morning, I thought. Divd increase of 23% announced, too...sasa.
sasa43
28 Jul 2017
Re: Fresnillo Hi casa - hope you're keeping well.Agree with your overview of what we might face at some point; there's no doubt that the trend to abolish cash in favour of digital liquidity continues apace as it bestows much greater control over the citizen and what he does with it, unlike the folding stuff. A sort of super QE...That should, indeed, materially increase the gold price but whether the Authorities would allow it to reach a 'natural' realignment level of, say. $10k per oz is very debatable, I'd say, as it's tantamount to a return to the gold standard with all the implicit recession / depression risks attached.Private gold hoarding could be outlawed once again, dealings in ETF securities likewise but I'd guess that mining companies, being legitimate businesses, would be more difficult to reign in, hence my preference for their shs augmented by some discreet bullion to hand.Hopefully, it'll never come to that, given the surrounding mayhem envisaged; as for Mr Corbyn and his acolytes, financial 'pygmies' are the last thing we need in such a crisis.As my old boss used to say 'In God we trust; everybody else cash!' Or, perhaps, gold would be more appropriate today.... sasa.
casabanker
27 Jul 2017
Re: Fresnillo Evening, sasa,I accept there are weaknesses in holding the precious metal ETF's but the threat of another financial collapse, much bigger than the last one, has other possibilities. If it happens again, credit will dry up instantly. Cash machines will run out of money very quickly too. Bank accounts are likely to be frozen and also investment platforms too. That only leaves two ways of buying anything, gold and hard cash. Cash will not last very long either. In 2007/8 credit dried up then but once the Central Banks and the Government stepped in with QE and loose monetary policy, the situation eased and trust returned. If it happens again, Central Banks have no more ammunition left. Interest rates are at or near zero. More QE may be issued but the currency will lose its worth quickly. I suspect hard cash will die out, being replaced with a digital currency that will be dated ie if you don't use it you will lose it after a certain date. I can see why physical gold should be priced at $10,000 an ounce or more.If another collapse does happen heaven forbid, it will be too late to buy physical gold then as there will not be any in stock.Let's hope Mr Corbyn and his team are brighter than they look!Casa.
sasa43
26 Jul 2017
On target once more... FRES has a pretty good record of meeting its production forecasts which is always encouraging.Although the world's primary silver producer, the value of the gold it is now producing exceeds the value from its AG output somewhat (53% v 47%) which reflects the AU production target having been beaten a while back, as much as anything. Wonder whether they'll be able to produce 1m ozs AU at some point? The interims are due out on the 1st Aug, accompanied by a reasonable divi increase, hopefully - sasa.
sasa43
13 Jul 2017
Re: Fresnillo Hi casa - have responded to your message on the HGM board having just seen it.I think your concern (and mine) over the unsustainable debt levels in all its forms almost everywhere is ominous for the mkts as it will need to be addressed at some point. Whether that's prompted by too rapid a return to 'normal' Fed rate levels or something more precipitate to undermine the bond mkts in setting it off, I really don't know because of the QE aftermath.That creating money 'out of thin air' has somehow become the norm in staving off recession can only trash the value of fiat currencies in the end and we both know what the ultimate refuge will turn out to be and forget this cryptocurrency fad running nowadays; only AU has the ultimate ability to maintain its buying power when 'push comes to shove'...Never been that keen on the ETF in gaining exposure myself because even the vehicles purporting to be backed by physical involve some derivative element on occasions, I'm sure and that brings with it the third party risk into play which tends to defeat the exercise, don't you think?Nothing beats physical retention, per se - other than a Government edict to ban private hoarding, as we saw in the thirties, so the better quality miners, being less exposed to censure, are the better bet for me, along with a small amount of bullion held for emergencies!I have some 15% in 'goldies' right now and a further12% in cash, pending redeployment at some point; might put this to work if equities undergo a sharp retreat or gold does the same - cannot think that the shorting contracts issued by the Fed will be allowed to continue for much longer; either the buyers of those will increasingly demand physical delivery to kill it off or it'll be exposed as pure mkt manipulation which it is, of course, before too long. ATB - sasa.
casabanker
12 Jul 2017
Re: Fresnillo Hello sasa,I hope you are keeping well. I was also hoping you would respond and indeed, I have left a message on the HGM board which hopefully i will be able to discuss further with you on there. In the meantime, I have been harping on about debt but only occasionally on the iii boards. No one wants to engage much when it sounds like moaning and pessimism. However, all of the potential threats of a market collapse have been aired and ignored some time ago but lately I am reading more and more about the likelihood. In fact, in some quarters it's not if but when it will happen. To counter this event, I have bought precious metal ETF's and FRES, PAF and CEY. As you will see, I have sold PAF due to poor political and economic decisions by the South African government. In addition, the market over the last week and into this has shown a weakness in my strategy. Both precious metals and the FTSE has fallen in tandem. Today has seen a welcome recovery in both. I am trying to learn continuously on how to protect capital probably more so than achieving the best possible dividend return due to the obvious threats. To this end, I have recently read about the daily FTSE short, XUKS and, as the FTSE100 has risen to over 7400 again today, I have taken a small holding in this instrument. It's not leveraged and hopefully is just a boring insurance type of instrument.As always, any comments you may make on this move will be very welcome.It's good to hear from you again, Casa.
sasa43
12 Jul 2017
Re: Fresnillo Helpful commentary for a 'newbie' there, casa, on either day trading, per se and / or relating to FRES, given its volatility which day trading requires...Like you, I rarely bother with day trading; only meaningfully changing a position when fundamentals or macro events rather dictate it.I think it's fair to say that FRES is now a 50 / 50 gold & silver producer, in terms of revenue production, although the mkt still regards it as primarily a silver play, given it remains the world's No1 producer in volume terms, as you say. Good 'insurance' in a crisis, too - sasa.
