tornadotony
08 Mar 2017
Fresnillo 2014 to 2016 compared Fresnillo assets have increased 10% since 2014 and the EBITDA increased to 1032M from 521M. The UK currency has also devalued 14% above the dollar basket appreciation.The Stock price of Fresnillo hovered around the 700 area for quite a lot of the time. 700 x 1032/521 x 1.14 x 1.10 = 1738p stock price. A 600p stock price is 1494p on today's performance price but at 1257 gold and current silver price. Adjusting for 1212 gold price is 45/800 roughly is an 84p drop or 1410 as fair value. The above is some fun calculations looking at past performance criteria given to the stock.Tony
casabanker
01 Mar 2017
Re: Fresnillo gold is hedged The US probably needs a $1trn rebuild but I think Mr Trump will come up against some resistance. In any case, the spend will be spread over the life of at least this term. He will also have to take care not to create too much inflation. The US is at or near full employment and any sudden demand for more workers will mean wage increase demands. Ronnie Regan did this in the eighties but the difference is the amount of debt. It was much lower then than now in the US. Nevertheless, the fear factors that I have mentioned previously and the increased uses and demand for silver in particular, bodes well for the future price imo.Casa.
tornadotony
01 Mar 2017
Fresnillo gold is hedged To note that 1 million ounces of gold production is hedged by Fresnillo. So around 14 months has a hedge collar of 1150-1400 per ounce. In theory Fresnillo should be far more responsive to silver. The average silver price last year was in the 17.20's and we currently sit near 18.40 and the company is guiding at least 16% more silver production. If USA does a trillion dollar rebuild it will need a fair amount of silver as well.
sasa43
28 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some 'morning casa - yep, very good figs from FRES, as hoped; gold production nearing 1m ozs is very impressive and I can't see the sp languishing for long unless the POG and AG prices noticeably reverse. That seems unlikely to me ahead of the EU elections, etc.,Note your position in CEY today and hope it turns out okay; hopefully, the recent sizeable share sales by El - Ragy is genuinely for personal / re-alignment purposes and nothing more than that since he's done this sort of thing in the past with no negative connotations....Other than that, the outlook seems encouraging with the shs offering good value at this juncture, imv and once ex the chunky payment, the sp should push on again. ATB - sasa.
casabanker
28 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Good morning sasa and tony,Top notch results from FRES today which makes me feel vindicated for holding here when times were thin and the sp languished below 600. It hardly seems believable now. Nevertheless, the quality of FRES was clearly there and it only needed uncertainty and investors' nerves to start jangling for a stellar turnaround in fortunes. However, it just shows how unpredictable precious metals commodities and their miners are, demonstrated by the over 2% fall in the FRES sp this morning. The reason is not obvious so is it a buying opportunity? Well, not for me. I have enough exposure here but the future looks good for both gold and silver and FRES imo.Thanks for the heads up on CEY, sasa. I have occasionally looked at the sp and decided I had missed out. It seems to have overcome all of the problems of instability of Egypt and the rise of terrorism in the Middle East so far to become a much better investment than when we held before the Arab Spring. The Company has also had some useful tailwinds provided by the weak Egyptian currency, stronger dollar and a useful rise in the gold price. That's not to deride their admirable business tenacity in overcoming the challenges presented by the various administrative changes in the Egyptian government. I have bought a few shares today, being a sucker for a good dividend (hard to find atm without threatening capital). It's a good job the ex-dividend date is Thursday so thanks for that, sasa.Best wishes, Casa.
sasa43
28 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Hi tornado - thanks for the useful overview / insights; FRES has always been reticent in stating its AISC for some reason but I agree with your AG guesstimate of $11 (my calc was $10, btw) and am now wading thru' this mornings RNS...At first glance, the outcome looks just about as good as it gets, so am surprised the sp has retreated somewhat initially; maybe I've missed something - sasa.
tornadotony
28 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Results beat analysts average earnings by around 10% to above 45 cents which is not far off the highest. The only bad news was death of 3 workers which the company is trying to eliminate in future. Without the dip from USA overnight this stock would have bounced up to 1740 but instead it is down. Sasa called it right. Tony
tornadotony
27 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some SasaOn the six monthly chart, Fresnillo is some 17% behind all the other UK major gold and silver miners. Polymetal is around 7-8% better. The forward silver guidance is around 20% higher for this year. The share currently trades below when silver was last around $18.40. The AISC cost on silver is I think around $11. So we have seen some uptick since December but no where near the levels given to other miners. The PE rate has fallen from around 85 to 45 which is not unusual for a growth company. Nevertheless the debt levels are falling in 2017 and future earnings are likely to be 20% higher plus whatever silver and gold do from here. The breakdown with other miners happened since the start of this month. I await with interest to see if we get 42 cents earnings or whether it is slightly higher at 46 cents. It may be somewhere in between. This company has enough silver to be the most productive source for the next 20 years. They also have more gold than Acacia and about as much as Randgold. Fresnillo AISC is better than most companies per ounce. TT
sasa43
27 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Sorry, XD this Thursday for CEY - sasa.
sasa43
25 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Hi casa, agree with your recent posts, btw - I, too, have jettisoned the junior miners to concentrate on FRES and CEY; the latter following their exceptional results a fortnight or so ago where a special divd of 13.5c ps was announced.The shs now yield 7% odd with them going XD on Tuesday, so you can still get in on it on Monday, if the yield appeals to you. Just thought it was worth mentioning...sasa.
sasa43
25 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Glad to learn (from another bb) tornado, that your wife is getting better now; hopefully, she'll soon be fully recovered to give you both some respite from all the anxieties...Yes, FRES reports next Tuesday and the figs. should be good with the peso weakness aiding margins up to 7% or so, hopefully, with both the silver price and gold picking up usefully of late.Being a near 50 / 50 producer of these monetary metals, FRES could soon regain last years 'high' if all goes well - sasa.
casabanker
22 Feb 2017
Re: Bought some Bad luck, tony. I have given up on small mining and oilie shares. It's too much risk for me. The volatility in a stock like FRES is enough to be going on with. The precious metal market looks good for FRES and it helps if the Company is performing well too. The future looks promising but, as you know, market sentiment can turn on a sixpence. If the dollar strengthens, gold and silver will struggle. That is possible in the short run but I suspect it will not last.Good luck, Casa.
tornadotony
21 Feb 2017
Bought some Report next week for Fresnillo. Unfortunately a stop loss took out my Acacia position before they reported and I missed most of the gain I could have had on that one although I bagged a reasonably profit. I think silver is on the way up higher. Fresnillo 2nd half results should be good. Brokers are uplifting earnings.
casabanker
17 Feb 2017
Re: Grant Williams presentation - Gold/petro... Jimbow,That was a very interesting presentation showing sound reasoning about the case for gold ownership. However, I am already a convert and hold over 25% of portfolio value in stocks, ETF's and physical gold. I was initially investing for income but I have changed to preservation and hopefully growth of capital. I already knew that the US cannot afford a 3% central bank rate with debt levels where they are. We are sitting on a time bomb.Casa.
Jimbow30
10 Feb 2017
Grant Williams presentation - Gold/petrodollar I attended the Mines and money conference in December and listened to the Grant Williams (Runs RealVision TV with Raoul Pal and hedge fund manager) presentation. It's very insight and would highly recommend everyone listens to it. Williams talks about the reaction to Donald Trump's election and joins a series of dots that may lead to the end of the petrodollar system and a new place for gold in the global monetary system. It's a must listen imo with big implications for gold and silver. [link]
