tornadotony
23 Nov 2019
570p was hit and taken out Hi Orsotoro There is a support line at 544p and another at 502p. HOC was hit as well and Fresnillo fell in line with that stock. HOC also has a strong support line 7-8% further back. When going for a bottom it is difficult to get spot on and when it happens it is luck. I can double or triple the stake on a deeper pull back if I want to. Back in 2015 Fresnillo traded at 67 times earnings but folks knew good times would emerge. It is deja vue on this stock as it will deliver a new mine in Q4 2020. The new resources altogether are equivalent to the entirety of the present Fresnillo silver mine output. So in 2021 earnings double over 2019 and debt levels halve. In 2020 the improvement is say 30% over 2019. Overall I believe Fresnillo will get back to 720p over the next 6 months or so. If I end up doubling up with average of 550p so be it. I am confident the share price and the company will soon turn a corner and that can happen anytime. On top of all this I would not bet against higher silver and gold prices next year. Also 1/6 of all Fresnillo income is from zinc and lead. Finally I never buy in all at one lot and neither do I sell all in one go. That strategy works for me and I have mastered it over years. I have rechecked my research and like the fundamentals that have guided my investment case. All the best. Tony
orsotoro
22 Nov 2019
570p was hit and taken out Hi Tony, You certainly come across like a pro with your very public calls, large stakes and combination of fundamental and technical analysis for all to see. Yet you have been drawn into a rather amateur error of allowing yourself to be exposed over the weekend and beyond, as your 10s of 1000s of £ investment is now relying on chance and hope to arrest a decline, with a 5% loss already in the bank and facing another 12% loss before the next minor resistance level. Why the heck didn’t you bail and jettison the whole position at 5.15 when it was obvious that the resistance had been well and truly breached because a 10 year low is no little thing. The damage to the chart is very serious and like you said there is no apparent rhyme or reason for it, so it could be that it is a tell for something fundamentally very serious and life threatening to the whole business. Sorry to say this, but I hope I am wrong and providence comes to your aid, but don’t get caught like this in future, as I-m sure you will be having a lousy weekend. Perhaps you can be lucky and ditch on a spike first thing Monday, or put on a hedge, but either way don’t just get caught in the headlights.
tornadotony
22 Nov 2019
570p was hit and taken out Hi orsotoro Your suggesting in effect shorting it down from 561p. At 661p that was safe to go and do. I am not so sure around this level. I have all weekend to review my research. I thought this could happen but I expected a strong response back up. Fresnillo is volatile and it could turn quite quickly upwards and then new support lines get created. I will drop another line sunday night after re-checking out a few things further. TT
orsotoro
22 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p A close literally at the lows 561 is a terrible sign for next week. Perhaps something will boost the POG over the weekend. It-s clear this is being manipulated, but the sellers are far stronger than the supporters and there is no support below until 500p.
orsotoro
22 Nov 2019
570p was hit and taken out Finished at daily, weekly and 10 year lows. No support until 500p. I suggest you sell and re=buy when this doesn’t resemble a death spiral.
tornadotony
22 Nov 2019
570p was hit ad taken out Well have my target investment under 600p which was my plan. With $200M taken off with no news is quite something. I am now sticking with my current total and waiting to see how this now plays out. On 5 November this share was 730p in just over two and half weeks its value is dropped over 20%. It has certainly moved lower than I thought it would do so. Hopefully today is the bottom on Fresnillo.
tornadotony
22 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p Latest buy was 573.6 following 588 buy earlier. Going to plan if today is the bottom.
orsotoro
22 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p Looks like a new yearly low today, possibly weekly close on a 10 year low. Oh dear.
lawven2
22 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p @tornadotony If we get 570p it won’t be there for more than a day and could be difficult to pull off. Possibly. But if - in the short term - a US -China Deal is consumated - the latter "trying hard’ - and there is a moratorium on, or a rolling back of Tariff increases, then one may see your 570p this side of 2019. As a generality, I agree with Orsotoro. - LLV
orsotoro
21 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p Best of…… In the bigger pic, a few tens of pennies wont be here or there. I still think there will be a further drop, but dollar cost averaging is a sound strategy.
tornadotony
21 Nov 2019
Bought in again at 606p It is getting low enough to start a buy and hold strategy. If we get 570p it won’t be there for more than a day and could be difficult to pull off. I may build positions until that point. So 2000 now held.
tornadotony
13 Nov 2019
Bought in two positions Just sold at 647 and banked £255. I believe you are correct as it has failed to break upper resistance lines. The profit helps me go in at the best price I happen to get.
orsotoro
13 Nov 2019
Bought in two positions This will test 570 again, so I will wait.
tornadotony
13 Nov 2019
Bought in two positions After an initial 629 buy I have added a second in the lower 620’s. Fresnillo retreat is far ahead of other precious metal miners. It may drop down to 590p but it would be very short lived and hard to capture. The upside for 2020 is quite promising from this level. I made the mistake on 16 October trying to get a deeper low and miss a terrific bounce. The risk reward ratio is okay on Fresnillo. I can add more if 590p or lower was realised. An average price of 610p would be okay for me.
tornadotony
01 Nov 2019
Got it all wrong In two weeks I have lost my chances here. For those who jumped in good luck. I have misread the October moves completely and I am staggered how it all played out. A good time for me to retire from equity investing for good.
