Flybe Group - Live Discussion

mildmouth 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, Broker update.........SP TARGE... I not sure whether this forecast is pre or post blackbird costs which were running at £25 million per annum ongoing and which would appear hardly to have been dented? Redeployment "solutions" for only 3 jets in more than a year, leaving 6 and not clear how those redeployments have been costed. One suspects that the 3 redeployed may still be a drag on costs?

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, Broker update.........SP TARGET 12... Could Flybe deliver 60% upside?Harriet Mann | Tue, 13th October 2015 After crashing into the red last year and issuing a crushing profits warning in January, airline Flybe (FLYB) has managed a partial recovery and looks to have regained its health. Despite fierce competition, it's just confirmed double-digit growth in seat capacity, passenger numbers and revenue during the second quarter, the third consecutive quarter of growth by all measures. That's certainly reassuring, and the City remains confident that the three-year turnaround programme can deliver a profit this year.After racking up a loss of £35.6 million in the year to March 2015, Numis securities analyst Wyn Ellis expects revenue of £629.5 million this year and pre-tax profit of £3.3 million, giving earnings per share (EPS) of 1.5p. Next financial year it's tipped to be £700 million of sales and a £23 million profit for EPS of 9.5p."Flybe has made significant progress with its turnaround programme. It had a £76.7 million net cash position at the end of FY15 with £74 million of gross costs taken out of the business over FY14 and FY15. The route network and fleet have been reconfigured and US$892m of purchase commitments cancelled (at no cost)," adds Ellis ahead of Flybe's interims on 11 November.And performance is clearly improving. Flybe grew seat capacity by 13.8% in the three months ended September to 3 million seats, passenger numbers by 10.7% to 2.4 million and passenger revenue was up 13%. Yield, or revenue per passenger, rose 2% compared with 0.7% in the first quarter. There was, however, a 2.2 percentage point fall in load factor - a measure of how well it fills its planes - and a 1% decrease in revenue per seat.Although Flybe has struggled getting rid of its nine Embraer E195 jets - Project Blackbird - progress is finally being made, albeit slowly. Last week, Flybe announced a five-year commercial deal with Rigby group-owned Regional & City Airports. One of the Exeter-based firm's aircraft will serve the Exeter and Norwich airports through eight routes to five destinations from March 2016.Five of the original fleet of 14 have been handed back to lessors and two have been based at Cardiff Airport since March 2015. The group is in talks to redeploy the remaining six planes.Since crashing to a low of 52p in May, the shares took off to 99p, nearly doubling in just three months. They've not been immune from the summer sell-off, but support has kicked in at the 200-day moving average and the shares are up 7% Tuesday at 82p. Wyn Ellis rates them a 'buy' and thinks they're worth 132p.Assuming earnings momentum does pick up, as expected, Flybe shares trade on an undemanding 8.6 times EPS estimates for the year to March 2017. There's a huge dollop of risk here, but this run of quarterly growth inspires confidence ahead of the historically quieter winter months.

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

FLYB, Broker update.........SP TARGET 120p Flybe Group PLC’s “Buy” Rating Reaffirmed at Liberum Capital (FLYB)October 14th, 2015 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Maddie SorensenFlybe Group PLC (LON:FLYB)‘s stock had its “buy” rating restated by Liberum Capital in a research reportissued on Wednesday, StockTargetPrices.com reports. They presently have a GBX 120 ($1.84) target price on the stock. Liberum Capital’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 48.15% from the stock’s previous close.A number of other equities analysts also recently issued reports on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd reissued a “buy” rating and set a GBX 132 ($2.02) target price on shares of Flybe Group PLC in a research report on Thursday, October 8th. HSBC cut shares of Flybe Group PLC to a “reduce” rating and raised their price target for the stock from GBX 60 ($0.92) to GBX 70 ($1.07) in a report on Friday, July 24th.Shares of Flybe Group PLC (LON:FLYB) opened at 81.00 on Wednesday. The stock’s 50 day moving average is GBX 81.43 and its 200-day moving average is GBX 71.12. Flybe Group PLC has a 12 month low of GBX 52.00 and a 12 month high of GBX 135.75. The company’s market cap is GBX 175.49 million. Flybe Group plc is a United Kingdom-based regional airline business with scheduled and white label flying businesses based out the Uk and Finland (LON:FLYB). As of June 30, 2014, its fleet had 96 aircraft. The Company’s upkeep, repair and overhaul (MRO) business supports the airline’s operations and serves third-party customers through the supply of aircraft maintenance and overhauls.

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, At Last The Time To BUY.......... Numis Securities Ltd Reiterates “Buy” Rating for Flybe Group PLC (FLYB)October 14th, 2015 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Maddie SorenseNumis Securities Ltd restated their buy rating on shares of Flybe Group PLC (LON:FLYB) in a report issued on Thursday morning, MarketBeat reports. They currently have a GBX 132 ($2.02) price objective on the stock.A number of other equities analysts have also recently commented on FLYB. HSBC lowered Flybe Group PLC to a reduce rating and increased their price target for the company from GBX 60 ($0.92) to GBX 70 ($1.07) in a research report on Friday, July 24th. Liberum Capital reissued a buy rating and set a GBX 120 ($1.84) target price on shares of Flybe Group PLC in a research report on Monday, July 20th.Shares of Flybe Group PLC (LON:FLYB) opened at 81.00 on Thursday. Flybe Group PLC has a 52 week low of GBX 52.00 and a 52 week high of GBX 135.75. The stock’s market cap is GBX 175.49 million. The stock’s 50 day moving average price is GBX 81.43 and its 200-day moving average price is GBX 71.12.Flybe Group plc is a United Kingdom-based regional airline business with scheduled and white label flying operations based out the Uk and Finland (LON:FLYB). As of June 30, 2014, its fleet had 96 aircraft. The Company’s upkeep, repair and overhaul (MRO) business supports the airline’s operations and serves third-party customers throughout the provision of aircraft maintenance and overhauls.

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, At Last The Time To BUY......... From across the road......According to fca.org.uk J P Morgan closed its short position.sightwatcher - Today 02:20

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

FLYB, At Last The Time To BUY......... FLYB Flybe Group PLCFinally turned positive on this stock after RNS of yesterday. Looks like the management have finally got a grip with the 'clapped out planes on the tarmac' which has been weighing on this stock for the last 2 years. I turn from Bear to Bull.[link] share price informationName FlyBe Epic FLYBSector Travel & Leisure ISIN GB00B4QMVR10Activites Flybe is Europe's largest regional airline and the UK's largest domestic airline. Flybe is a leader in the European regional aviation market, offering: -- four times more domestic routes than any other carrier; a significant presence in the UK to European business cities market; and more routes from the UK to France than any other airline. FlyBe broker viewsDate Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes13 Oct Numis Buy 82.00 132.00 132.00 Retains13 Oct Cantor Fitzgerald Hold 82.00 75.00 75.00 Reiterates13 Oct Liberum Capital Buy 82.00 120.00 120.00 Reiterates

II Editor 13 Oct 2015

NEW ARTICLE: Could Flybe deliver 60% upside? "After crashing into the red last year and issuing a crushing profits warning in January, airline LSE:FLYB:Flybe has managed a partial recovery and looks to have regained its health. Despite fierce competition, it's just confirmed double-digit ..."[link]

nk1999 10 Oct 2015

Liberum From Citywire:"Flybe covers the cost of one more surplus aircraftAirline Flybe (FLYB) has struck new deals with two airports that will cover the cost of one of its surplus aircraft.Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘buy’ recommendation with a target price of 120p. The shares rose half a penny to 77.5p yesterday.‘An agreement with Exeter and Norwich airports allows Flybe to cover the cost of one more of its surplus E195 aircraft,’ he said.‘The deal sees the airports provide financial support for eight routes to five destinations. Eight of the surplus aircraft have now been dealt with, leaving management seeking solutions for the remaining six. There is no impact on our estimates or valuation, but it is nonetheless positive to see progress on an issue that has weighed on investor sentiment.’ "

mildmouth 09 Oct 2015

A blackbird or is it a crow?! Other than those returned to the lessors there were 9 of E195 jets surplus to requirements of which two have been used and this is the third leaving 6 as a dead cost. So, in over 2 years precious little progress has been made and we do not know whether the uses are profitable or just less lossmaking.This whole issue is making a huge impact on the balance sheet, let alone the p&l, even though they are trying to call this a legacy issue for below the line.Worrying.

digger61 26 Jul 2015

A long way to go... Whilst the trading update was good news I still believe a Takeover is the way forward for this business. If Easy or Ryanair were to buy it it would be earnings enhancing within 12 - 18 months. This is before their not insignificant financial muscle is brought to bare on all the people Flybe do business with. Lots of overlap and no surprise who are getting the better deals when negotiating with suppliers, airports etc. The logic to me is compelling.Time will tell...the rise was most welcome!

starchaser2 22 Jul 2015

DIY-Investors - Recovery Stock? This had been flagged up as a possible recovery stock for some while by DIY-Investors.com - see: [link] two posts of 8th and 17th June were particularly helpful. The Q1 Update today confirms this as a buy IMHO. DYOR etc etc.Starchaser2

Courtier1 22 Jul 2015

Re: Any thoughts? Yes - excellent trading update in my view.They have Cash of £190m worth in excess of the current market cap!!! so they don't need partners with big pockets - they appear to be one of the best funded airlines in the marketThey are growing well and doing all the right things - increased capacity and revenue, lowering costs etcThe fly in the ointment that everyone focuses on are some legacy issues regarding planes - as I understand it from an industry source previous management basically bought planes that no-one really wants in the secondary market so new mgmt have been stuck with them - the costs of which are draining the profitability. They have clearly said today that worst case this is an £80m hit of £20p/a for 4years but expect to exit at substantially less than that. To me that means less than half.However, judging by the finals and this trading statement even if the legacy aircraft issue is not resolved they will move into profit this year and if it is resolved they should be making £25m+ p/a less whatever it costs to exit the aircraft situationmarket cap of £160m trading at pretty much NAV (excluding intangibles) with lots of cash and a strong management team that understand and have executed successfully in the budget space previously..........I think it has lots of upside.Think I saw an analyst target of 135p today too.

digger61 17 Jul 2015

Any thoughts? Does anybody else feel the BOD should be looking at selling the business to someone with much more financial firepower? It strikes me many of the costs facing the business could be reduced with a far more potent owner eg Ryanair or easyjet.

digger61 11 Jul 2015

Ryanair/Easyjet With Ryanairs/Easyjets undoubted financial clout does anyone have any thoughts on a possible takeover of Flybe? It seems to me that as a subsidiary of one of these financially very sound businesses it could be turned profitable much sooner than expected. Combine this with a low market cap they could nick it before all the good work of the last year or so comes through...

tejo 23 Jun 2015

Black Rock purchase Black Rock holding now over 5% which indicates more faith in future growth,

Flybe Group Live Discussion

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