Flybe Group Live Discussion

nk1999 29 Apr 2016

Sharep-hofets view From sharep-rohets.com"Flybe (FLYB) has seen its share price fall steadily since the start of the year, and at close to 12 month lows I definitely think it is worth another look. Its trading statement, released at the end of January, sent the shares into a spin and has seen tyhe share price drop from the mid-80s to the current level of around 56p and a market cap of just £125 million. The company has had its share of problems in recent times, including having hedged at high levels prior to the collapse in fuel prices, plus its Project Blackbird was costing £26 million per annum, but that finally ended last November when the company decided to keep on six of the Embraer E195 jets and use them on existing routes to replace old aircraft. The cost of doing so has been significantly reduced as well, costing £20 million for 2015/16, £10 million the year after, and dropping to £4 million by year four. Given that at the last set of financials for the six months up to the end of September 2015, the company made a net profit of £26.8 million, with an operating profit of £21.9 million, the current market valuation would seem to be on the low side, especially as it is reducing its costs and liabilities – in March the company bought three planes for $34 million as part of its plan to move to outright ownership rather than leasing (at a cost of £37 million for six months, as per the interims). It doesn’t have huge amounts of debt, with around £111 million in total at the last accounts and only £12.4 million of that as a current liability (£6.4 million loan repayments were made during that six month period as well), and total finance costs of £1.3 million for the period. At the end of March the company still had cash and equivalents of £171.3 million, so is in a strong position there. The latest trading update also didn’t have any nasty surprises and mentioned that full year results to the end of March 2016 were expected to be in line with expectations, despite events such as the Paris bombings causing temporary blips in passenger numbers. The forward looking statement for the coming summer showed that additional seating allocated is being sold as planned, with 21% already sold by the start of April and with a 17% increase in capacity compared to 2015. The company has also hedged 90% of its 2016/17 fuel and currency exposure, which reduces any risks on that front and makes up a big chunk of its annual costs, at around $120 million for fuel and $315 million in US Dollars, even though the subsequent rise in the Dollar has so far impacted operating costs by £7 million since the start of the year – that could all change though and could look a good move in months to come! In the past Flybe has been quite heavily shorted, but currently there are no notifiable shorts in excess of 0.5%, plus a number of institutional investors and funds hold fairly large amounts of shares. There are still plenty of risks with this company as it is in a very competitive market with tight margins, meaning it wouldn’t take a lot of bad luck to return to making a loss again, but at the current market cap I view that as a risk worth taking due to the potential upside. The last time this company recovered from a big dip the share price quickly headed back to the 90p area, and I see no reason why it can’t do so again as long as things go to plan. -

JR710 26 Apr 2016

The Petition is gaining support Apologies for board hopping but-The petition is going quite well; 4300+ signatures so far. Although it really needs a turbo boost.[link] petition was stalled in parliament since 12th Aug 15; finally green lit on 12th feb 2016.The FCA don't even reply on the matter, now is your chance to have your say.If you hate seeing buys reported as sells etc!!!!!!Has already been sent to Martin Lewis, Daily Mail, Moneyweek & Watchdog.My local MP supported this petition by writing to the petitions committee to help un-stall it.There’s 650 MP’s in Westminster, So have you written to your MP? 649 to go!If this petition doesn’t reach 10,000; then imo we might as well have not bothered as it will almost certainly be filed B1N; @ 10,000 the government should respond.So – If you haven’t yet signed or indeed have but haven’t passed it on to others, then now’s the time to do so. We really need a social / media savvy individual to help generate more interest in this.

Nice to Michu 21 Mar 2016

I've Topped up twice now in early 60's If Lambrini Girl says 60p is the bottom then that's good enough for me Also many major airlines are reporting good figures off the back of increased pricing and good passengers numbers and so I'm hoping, if only by trickle down effect, that Flybe will be able to charge more per seat while maintaining passenger numbers. Also old fuel hedges at high levels are all but finished now and so much lower fuel costs going forward for a long time - from new hedges - for it. And they have done a good job on working out solutions for their previously redundant planes.100p target for me here sometime in 2016

lambrini girl 21 Jan 2016

Re: Well,well, well >>wait for 60p..<<<wake up chaps..wheres my BANG ON!!??

nk1999 29 Dec 2015

"Key UK Corporate Snapshots TodayAvation Plc (AVAP.L) Announced the acquisition and delivery of a third new ATR 72-600 aircraft to Flybe Group Plc ("Flybe", the UK commercial airline, as part of a wider programme of deliveries to Flybe. The duration and lease rate on this aircraft is typical for aircraft of this type. The aircraft is operated by Flybe for Scandinavian Airlines ("SAS" under a wet lease operational contract arrangement termed the "white label" project and accordingly will fly in the livery of SAS. This aircraft is the 26th ATR 72 aircraft that the Company has purchased since 2011.The management believes that the Company will deliver a total of four new ATR 72-600 aircraft in calendar year 2016. Executive Chairman Jeff Chatfield, stated that ATR 72 is the most efficient aircraft type for regional routes, resulting from its low fuel consumption and overall the lowest operating costs in its class."nk

pharmaspecialist 01 Dec 2015

Another crazy project? In common with most shareholders I am pleased to see the end of Project Blackbird but I am concerned to see that the chairman, Simon Laffin, is now proposing another high risk project for the company. This is the expansion of Northolt Aerodrome to allow Flybe's aircraft to start commercial operations there. The last time proposals were made for short haul airliner flights from Northolt, the cost of the necessary expansion of the airport was put at billions of pounds so I really do not understand how Flybe is hoping to fund this. In addition, anyone who is familiar with the area will know that gridlock exists in all the main roads around the aerodrome every rush hour (I know because I used to commute through the area) and public transport links are not particulary good so the infrastructure will not support expanding passenger numbers from the aerodrome. Flybe already has debt of well over £50M and is classed as close to a "financially distressed" rating on Stockopedia so I would not have thought that now is the time for another high risk enterprise.

II Editor 02 Nov 2015

NEW ARTICLE: Flybe ends Project Blackbird at half the cost "After struggling to rehome its Embraer E195 jets, LSE:FLYB:Flybe has finally confirmed its remaining six planes will be redeployed for half the cost initially ring-fenced for the scheme, bringing an end to Project Blackbird. This resolves the ..."[link]

mildmouth 02 Nov 2015

Blackbird Fantastic news on the completion of this project which was acting as an enormous drag on the shares. It had seemed as though there was no end to this in sight and, rightly, the company has spelled out the financial implications which, though bad, are much better than worst case.My worry is that use of "reserved costs" can mask a situation and we do not know how cost effective the new route are expected to be (which might mask the true costs of getting out of the E195's).However, the action has to be great news and I will now take an optimistic view and withdraw my earlier suggestion that the blackbird might actually be a crow! Since the company has not made clear how cost effective the new routes are expected to be, we cannot yet be 100% sure.

mildmouth 19 Oct 2015

Re: Widebody aircraft Informative, relevant and witty.... made me smile thanks!

digger61 19 Oct 2015

Widebody aircraft The Embraers are narrow bodies not widebodies...there again they could be dead bodies!

mildmouth 16 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, IM OUT.......... Great information! Definitely a crow not just a blackbird!!I am sure HMG would also love to pretend in the same way that its long tail pfi contracts are not part of the balance of payments!!

oldjoe1 15 Oct 2015

FLYB, IM OUT.......... IM OUT, quickest U TURN in my history, shorters will be all over this one unless company can prove they have got shot of the 6 old planes.........Planemaker shares fall after Delta warns of surplus10/15/2015 | 07:21am US/Easter(Reuters) - Shares in the world's two leading planemakers fell after Delta Air Lines Inc (>> Delta Air Lines, Inc.) warned of a surplus of second-hand widebody planes, raising concerns about their ability to command good prices for new aircraft.(Reuters) - Shares in the world's two leading planemakers fell after Delta Air Lines Inc (>> Delta Air Lines, Inc.) warned of a surplus of second-hand widebody planes, raising concerns about their ability to command good prices for new aircraft.Shares in European planemaker Airbus Group (>> Airbus Group) fell 2 percent on Thursday, catching a downdraft from a steeper 4.3 percent drop in rival Boeing's (>> Boeing Co) stock overnight.Boeing slid after Delta's Chief Executive Richard Anderson said he expects prices for used twin-aisle jets to fall.Modern aircraft are built to stay in service for 25 years or more but are often traded between airlines throughout their lives, providing values that serve as a barometer for old and new jets alike.Low fuel prices have also encouraged some airlines to think twice about spending billions of dollars on new fuel-saving models.Anderson, whose airline has recently ordered both second-hand and new planes, told a conference call on Wednesday that the used wide-body market was a "bubble" and "ripe" for purchases by Delta over the next 12 to 36 months."Part of the statement is obviously true, even if Delta is well known to be a great fan of (buying) second-hand aircraft ...but this is a risk for Airbus," a Paris trader said.Suppliers were also in the spotlight after U.S.-based Spirit AeroSystems (>> Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.) fell 5.5 percent on Wednesday, though Cowen & Co called the fall in Boeing and Spirit shares "overdone".Anderson said leases of used Airbus A330-200 aircraft would be five times cheaper than new ones and that decade-old 777-200 aircraft from Boeing would cost $10 million, versus around $300 million at list prices for new ones.Aircraft appraisers on average value those decade-old Boeing jets at more than $50 million, market sources said.Old planes from the likes of Singapore Airlines Ltd (>> Singapore Airlines Ltd.) are expected to be available soon, Anderson said."We get calls all the time," Anderson said about used widebody planes, adding that no deal is in the works. "Prices are going to get lower. You wouldn't strike a deal now.""We think that weakness in that aircraft bubble in widebodies is going to spread to narrowbodies, and that there will be some huge buying opportunities," he said.Manufacturers have been reassuring the industry recently over market prices for their long-range twinjets, while acknowledging some pressure on the oldest and smallest variants.A European conference heard growing concerns last week over values of 250-300-seat jets, dozens of which are expected to come on the market in coming months."As a consequence we have seen significant pressure on Boeing 777-200ER values and generally they are down by more than 20 percent over the past 12 months," Rob Morris, head of consultancy at Ascend Flightglobal, said.Traders say A330-200 prices have also weakened.Canaccord Genuity Inc analyst Ken Herbert said in a research note that he believes a production cut on the 777 is coming on the heels of a recent cut in Airbus A330 rates."But we do not believe the (widebody) weakness will spread to the (narrowbody) market, and we remain bullish on (Boeing's)stock" he said. "We believe Delta’s comments were also somewhat self-serving."Delta's partner Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd [VA.UL] is looking to acquire around 20 777s, Herbert said.(Additional reporting by Alwyn Scott in New York; Editing by Andrew Hay

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

FLYB Liberum Broker Note..... <b>FLYB Flybe Group PLC (posted earlier today) Broker note in.</b>[link] analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 120p on the shares, which rose 4.9% to 81p yesterday.‘The trading update for the September quarter showed encouraging progress and provided further evidence of the continuing commercial turnaround at Flybe,’ he said.‘The trends were broadly similar to the previous quarter, with strong capacity and revenue growth, but a modest reduction in load factor and revenue per seat. We are leaving our full-year estimates unchanged. We see upside potential if Flybe can continue to deal with its surplus aircraft, which continue to hide the underlying progress at the airline.’</i></b>

mildmouth 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, Broker update.........SP TARGE... Again, no mention of huge continuing financial impact of blackbird. Load factor decline is also a worry (caused by redeployed blackbird E195's??) . It is as though these costs do not exist.... except they do and the results could be talked up and yet also be terrible?!

oldjoe1 14 Oct 2015

Re: FLYB, Broker update.........SP TARGE... FLYBE'S SECOND QUARTER REVENUE TAKES OFF(ShareCast News) - Budget airline Flybe said it was continuing its turnaround as it posted double-digit growth in passenger numbers and revenue.In the second quarter of its financial year, the carrier posted a 10.7% year-on-year increase in passenger numbers to 2.4m, while seat capacity rose 13.8% to 3m seats.Passenger revenue rose 13% year-on-year, although load factor, a gauge measuring the number of seats filled on aircraft, declined from 80.5% to 78.3%."Flybe's turnaround continues, with our third successive quarter of revenue, capacity and passenger number growth, against the very competitive market provided by other airlines and road, rail and ferry services," said group chief executive Saad Hammad."In our second year of transformation, Flybe's performance in its core business is on track."