kilindidni
28 Sep 2017
Ryanair Any chance the problems of Ryanair will help this airline's traffic over the next few months?
thirty fifty twenty
27 Jul 2017
Re: very informative article thks thanks Supertag - that's a very informative article.seems to make lots of logical sense when you read it.much more excited now re FLYB holding ... if this double bottom in the chart has been formed the upside could be large indeed and perhaps ina shorter timescale with that bid!fingers crossed.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLFLYB is in my portfolio
Supertag
27 Jul 2017
Re: That's me in! [link]
thirty fifty twenty
26 Jul 2017
Re: That's me in! hi SuperTaggood to hear confirmation of their good custoemr service.what makes you think stobart might be interested.I've not looked at Stobart recently - are they just the airport now?many thanks
Supertag
26 Jul 2017
That's me in! Use FLYBE on a regular basis and the try to offer a good service.Be interesting if Stobart make a bid in the near future.Seat belt buckles and ready for take off!GLA Supertag
thirty fifty twenty
26 Jul 2017
at 40p a very positive trading update what a great trading update!My previous investment scenario was simply that with 700m of turnover and a good strategy the upside even at 50% of the valuations of RYAN, EZY, WIZZ etc… was 100% +. I reckon that could take up to 5 years and there would be bumps along the way but that the current situation was starting to look like a bottom and thus there was limited downside with large upside potential.I think the trading update improves that scenario on 5 fronts!1 – the strategy is clearly a decent strategy and starting to work2 – the progress is quite rapid and thus my timeframe should probably be less than 5 years3 – turnover which broker forecasts had assumed would be level year on year at 700m might now be 10% higher. 4 – higher turnover (remember that they have industry leading customer loyalty stats) has 2 big impacts – not only does it mean that my asssumptions are 10% higher than before but if they can continue some sort of growth then it is a compounded growth effect over 5 years. Also extra turnover gives a better chance of making a better profit margin and thus introduces a sort of ‘safety net’ to the company returning to profitability5 – I still expects bumps on the way but such a solid trading update gives confidence that the mgt team, and in particular the newly appointed experienced CEO are capable of making FLYB deliver good shareholder returns.Broker forecasts to Mar 19 have EPS of 4p. I suspect there is potential for these to be increased.I am assuming no increase but if there is increasing confidence that they will be met I think a share price of 60p would be justified. The really interesting thing about the share price approaching 45p is that it would then be a mandatory buy for various tracker funds and I think price momentum would continue.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLFLYB is in my portfolio
Nice to Michu
26 Jul 2017
A positive update for a change and a good start for CEO.. and things looking like they could get better going forwardI expect this s/p to go up decently this morning.. not least as its at a very low level currently
thirty fifty twenty
18 Jul 2017
FLYB + AGR! I'm getting interested in FLYB but yet to do serious research.I am a big fan of AGR and the way that Simon laffin as steered their strategy to be focused , efficient and the best in their sector with the result that they have just rasied 10% new equity at a big premium to NAV whcih was heavily over subscribed.I see the same logic and strategy being applied by him at FLYB.In theory their operation shoul dbe simple enough. Have the right amount of planes, operate them efficiently, charge a price customers are prepared to pay and hey presto you make a profit. I appreciate there are many more variables than that but underlying that appears to be the strategy and although it might take a few years with a few bumps along the road there are rich rewards if they succeed with 700m of turnover.it appears to me that there might be evidence of some bottoming out going on..... new shareholders, new CEO (very experienced) and several bouts of director share buying. it feels like they are through the worst operationally, and their presentations are very upbeat. If they get anywhere near the 6p EPS fcst for next year the price will move upwards. And once momentum starts the index funds that have sold on the way down will need to buy on the way back up. Time will tell. I've bought some but need to research more - other thoughts welcome.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLFLYB is in my portfolio
Nice to Michu
13 Jun 2017
Re: Topped On reflection, as Stobart is now nearly 15 times the market capitalisation of flyb and as they have recently announced a small working arrangement together why not Stob in due course just go the whole hog and buy Flyb towards growing out its aviation business?
Nice to Michu
13 Jun 2017
Re: Topped I hear you Ripley .. I hold a long(ish) term position here that is now 25%+ under water and I topped up recently at around 34p and again now at 32 odd p and would do the same again at 30p ..I'm hoping the II technical piece posted below is close to accurate and this does not go lower than 30p and then has a good bounce. (I'd dump some into a decent bounce) I understand that this is kinda a dog, but ever dog has its day and its decent balance sheet and good cash position will allow it at least stumble along for a long while yet and hopefully in that time there will be some sort of rally for whatever reason e.g. more control of fleet size is a meaningful thing imho Or maybe a bigger player swallows it up: there needs to be more consolidation in the airline industry and this could be categorised as cheap .. or maybe even a strategic merger with other smaller player eg Stobar
Ripley94
07 Jun 2017
Re: Topped And again @ 33.5 p... year on from last post !
mildmouth
01 Jun 2017
Re: Why buy Flybe? Sorry I have only just seen this very good response to my posting.I will think about it but for now I would just say that NAV with plenty of cash - so long as it is not being frittered away, and we have to hope that the aircraft supply tightening will help avoid that - is a strong defensive factor. ....... ok which for now does not seem to be preventing the SP from drifting further downwards!
II Editor
25 May 2017
NEW ARTICLE: A share for the 'insanely brave' "Flybe Group (LSE:FLYB) & Ferrari (NYSE:RACE)LSE:FLYB:FlyBe has been following a pretty solidly defined glide path since 2011 with the price being, frankly, quite boring.The current blue downtrend is at roughly 40.128p with a clear suggestion ..."[link]
II Editor
25 May 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 25/05/2017 " FLYBE GROUP (LSE:FLYB) & FERRARI (NYSE:RACE)Â FlyBe has been following a pretty solidly defined glide path since 2011 with the price being, frankly, quite boring. The current BLUE downtrend is at roughly 40.128p with a clear suggestion should ..."[link]
claude reins
18 Apr 2017
Re: Why buy Flybe? Thanks for that. Good starter for a discussion which I value because it tests my own concluisons and back up assumptions.Starting at the end first. There is over-capacity in their markets. They are underpriced by their competitors, and they dont offer a better service IMHO. (Where I live they are the major carrier, so I think I can speak with some experience). Who would want to acquire them. They have little or no USP and they have no airline equivalent of Intellectual Property.They havent ebnough profitable business to support their fleet even when they themselves cease to be 'plagued by overcapacity.'New CEO doesnt impress me with her CV and - you werent to know thaat when you wrote your comment - the CFO has now gone to Low and Bonar. Could be that she wants her own team; or they didnt get on; or he believes that Flybe arent going anywhere; or a mix of all 3. As far as the CEO is concerned, I was happier with the predecssor who at least knew the business form Easyjet and created many of the firm foundations on which any recovery could be based, including the hijacking of a huge amount of cash form the market a little while ago!'Share price less than half NAV' alweays leaves me feeling cool. In this industry, it is a bit like saying that because airline 1 has 74% seat usage and airline 2 has has 93%, then the former has a lot more potential than the latter. True, except the latter has the bums on the seats already (like Easyjet and Ryanair) and the 74% could reflect the poor competitive position of the former, which I believe it does in this case.The sole remaining advantage is the cash, and that has rto be realised to be of true value. A bit like a sharwe where your increased value over buying price is not there, truly there, until you sell it....which brings us bask to who is going to buy it.There could be a significant increase in SP as there was some months ago by some financial internal wizardry. Even Johnston Press achieved that....but that is for traders, quick in and out, and you have to be sharp/ If you see one coming for Flybe in the near future, please let us know on the BB. In advance, preferably!Thanks again for the discussion. Lets keep it going if you have anything more to add.
