Nice to Michu
19 Feb 2018
Close to waking up here perhaps ? If it can get clear 36p once and for all this could motor on well into the 40's p quickly enough imho... but 36p seems - very - hard to leave behind ..I think this company is slowly but surely turning itself around.. and if it keeps on this path it can go much higher from here.. fundamental anaylysts will like what they see here.. and breaking out of 36p area will beget charters coming on board here too imho: concerted upward movement readily possible.PS; Stobart must be keeping a close eye on progress here too.. and are brilliantly placed to do that too.. could gobble this up easily enough if they wanted to .. and could be a good strategic fit?but it is a tricky share with a poor history.. and has flattered to deceive often before ...so DYOR, of cours
thirty fifty twenty
07 Feb 2018
36p - an interesting closing auction - BID? big volume since recent results - will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks
thirty fifty twenty
06 Feb 2018
Re: Today - Blue sky in a sea of red - what'... indeed - feels like stake building to me...one of the the biggest day's of volume in a whileand the price rises despite the carnage...fingers crossed
paraguay63
06 Feb 2018
Today - Blue sky in a sea of red - what's going on! Did expect that finish given the carnage elsewhere today. Hope this bodes well for the future of Flyb.
thirty fifty twenty
31 Jan 2018
Re: mildly encouraging? yes i thought it was a very positive trading update ,i was amazed at the big increase in load factors.compared to initial forecatss it looks as if turnover is well ahead of plan,though the extra maintenance costs,meaningful profit will be delayed.but if they can get anywhere near meaningful profit then a large re-rating could happen.the price action has been very firm on volume going into the results today,and i find it interesting that for the first couple of hours the price was marked down to 34p but now is merrily changing hands for 36p.....i might be too optimistic but is this stake building??All IMHO, DYOR + BoLFLYB is in my portfolio
mildmouth
31 Jan 2018
mildly encouraging? clearly there are some headwinds, however, the benefits of being able to cut the fleet according to demand shows signs of taking effect. Surely, after so many years of the legacy overhang of excess aircraft, once they get supply and demand into reasonable balance they will start to make a profit, and that process is clearly under way.Once they start to make a profit their balance sheet will look extremely strong.
CunningFox
23 Jan 2018
Carlisle Airport “No details have been released of the airline or airports to be served in London or Belfast, but Stobart Air flying in Flybe colours is a prime candidate.”[link]
pharmaspecialist
10 Nov 2017
Politicians irritated by Flybe? Have just read recent comments from Tom Elwood (Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence) on Flybe's attempts to get Northolt RAF base to accept commercial airliner flights. Reading between the lines, my impression is that Flybe has perhaps irritated him as he states that Ministers corresponded with Flybe in 2015 and 2016 about unsolicited bids by Flybe to use the airport but that these bids were not even considered. This airport does not meet safety standards for commercial airliner flights as for example the runway does not have sufficient length for safe operations and there is a petrol station situated on the perimeter so amazed that Flybe wasted time pusuing this at all. Hope the relatively new CEO will have more strategic nous.
mildmouth
09 Nov 2017
Re: at 36p analysis of H1 results An interesting review thanks 305020.There may be 12 points but in my view by far the most important is the increasing control of the fleet due to expiry of the over-ordering and the end of some of the leases. This fact alone, with the resulting ability to remove excess capacity, could make all the difference in the world, and it is encouraging to see that it appears not to be an illusion, it is actually happening.I have noted one point of caution from the statement, namely that having returned some leased aircraft they are "learning from it". This together with the maintenance cost bombshell sounds to me as though it could be code for the possibility that excess maintenance costs may have been incurred by way of end of lease charges - not at all abnormal, except that they should have been anticipated. Let is hope that these have now properly been provided for. I see it is encouraging that these matters are being faced and - one hopes! - dealt with.
thirty fifty twenty
09 Nov 2017
at 36p analysis of H1 results I was nervous of this RNS as could have contained a can of worms......in the end it is a mixed bag for me.the good news is that i do think they try and provide decent information and detail to shareholders. With the mess that had to sort out it is a 5 year turnaround plan at least.I have confidence in the c'man (SImon Laffin) based on his results at AGR,but of course he can only work with the cards he has been given that is UK regional flight.So overall.....well most noticeably for me was that it takes a lot of time to analysis their results.there are a lot of moving parts and trying to get decent trends and H1h2 splits takes times,but ultimately yields good nuggets of information. to me it seems that they have about 12 important aspects to get right (i've not bothered to specifically list) but it is without doubt a BIG to-do list! the good news is that they are making progress on the majority of this to-do list. the bad news is that it is likely there will be some surprises and some that they plainly just don't get on top of.So will the wins outweight the negatives??For me, I don't think at this stage it is obviously clear - there are riskssome things are internal and they can fix - others are external.....So I think this level of issues to work on leads to a logical conclusion that the business outcome is binary.....either they fix these or they don't and if they don't it is possible the company goes bust and certainly the current mgt team get chopped.on the downside that means the company could go bust if they got unlucky and external events went against them. the good news for this is that there is significant chart support at 34p so only if it started trading significantly below this level would the worthless option begin to seriously worry me.on the upside... well here sky is the limit....if they work well and fix most of the issues and (excuse the pun) get a good tailwind behind the business... e.g. it only take 2% operating margins to get them to 8p eps. the new IT will give them access to marginal sales at much higher profit revenues.. e.g car hire deal, hotel deals , promotional pushes etc... so this over 2/3 years could easily add 1% to profit margins-i.e.12p EPS but don't want to be getting carried away - they are many issues to fix.but 12p EPS is definitely a realistic scenario.A chart break here above 40p would signify they do have momentum in this regard and the upside could then be 100pAs well as being supported by earnings - if the price does get > 40p then its hits the radar of tracker funds that will be oblidged to start buying shares - so if the share price does get some momentum then it really could motor.realistically though it is a big if!I have weighted up the probabilities I put on either scenario. Overall for me i am going to keep invested albeit at a lower % of my portfolio that originally envisaged. the risk reward is attractive but it there is some risk.The other unknown is how likely they might be to be taken over.Again it seems possible but also it would be a brave move given the extent of current issues. I see only STOB as the likely acquirer and don't know enough of their strategy - do they buy and fix, or wait until fixed and pay a higher price? No idea just don't know enough re STOB.it was probably the possibility of a bid that stopped me selling out completely.So i'll give it 12 months and see what happens!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLFLYB is in my portfolio
Blanketstacker
27 Oct 2017
Re: Liberum Despite the downgrade he still has a target of 45p. That is 28% up!! Seems like it may be time for a tiddly buy to me! (Results are due 6 Nov, and Richard Crow is very keen on this).
nk1999
22 Oct 2017
Liberum From Citywire on Thursday 19/10:"Flybe shares grounded by cost shock, says LiberumLiberum has stripped its ‘buy’ rating on Flybe (FLYB) after shares in the regional airline crashed 20% yesterday after a profits warning.Higher maintenance costs and intense competition mean the company only expects to make a first half profit of £5-10 million, down from £15.9 million a year ago.Analyst Gerald Khoo cut his recommendation from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ and reduced his target price from 50p to 45p as the shares plunged 8.75p to 35.5p.‘Higher maintenance costs are a clear disappointment in the short term. We assume a £15 million hit this year, which ought to be conservative and one-off,’ he said. ‘There ought to be payback from improved reliability, which in turn should reduce passenger compensation and other disruption costs. The commercial performance appears encouraging, with improvements in both yields and load factors. However, until there is greater clarity on maintenance costs...we believe the shares will struggle to perform,’ he added."
Nice to Michu
18 Oct 2017
negative in the positive this share would test the patience of a saint and as i'm no saint I sold 25% of my holding this morning to put to work elsewhere.That said I still hold a small to medium position at approx. 40p b/e because I still believe they will get there in the end - and/or be taken over for a strong premium to current s/p - but I also believe there will be plenty of time to buy these back at between 33p and 43p into the future .. and if/when this turns around or is taken over 40 ish p average will allow for a bag or more upside imho.. ps; a full year loss now a distinct possibility and so the s/p might therefore easily wallow on in afore mentioned range for months to come...
mildmouth
18 Oct 2017
positive in the negative The statement at first sight looks and is negative, failure to account properly/and or control maintenance costs, what could be more fundamental?! However, this could also be viewed as the new CEO getting to grips with the task in hand. Furthermore, it should be a one off adjustment and improve the service. However, the big positive is that the CEO confirms that the reduction in the overhang or surplus aircraft us starting to take effect. This is a problem (remember project blackbird?! a real crow!) which has blighted the company for several years, and finally getting on top of it should massively improve the chances of the company making profit.I am encouraged rather than discouraged.
kilindidni
03 Oct 2017
Opportunity for Flybye The crash of Monarch must have given an opportunity for Flybe to be of help with stranded passengers in terms of movements within the UK between airports.
