thehog2
08 Feb 2017
Re: Gossip update Sorry Shadow, I didn't spot your post earlier.It was as I suspected, my home is too big for a Flow boiler but they automatically sent me a quote for the ECO RF. These things come via Flow so there is a bit of a delay in the system. The quote was for just a few pounds more than the headline figure.I will not look for any installation prior to the Spring as a boiler change here will also mean cooling off the AGA and I certainly don't want both off in the winter.As this morning's RNS shows they are getting the RF out there, and I stand by my view that it is this simple reliable boiler that should be pushed as hard as possible. Getting a European partner for the FLOW boiler certainly seems the way forward.TH2
46Gillingham
08 Feb 2017
Re: Interesting day ahead Ditto I sold in the low 20's and very happy to be out.This company was launch and finance for the boiler products. The management should just shut it down this side of the business NOW. They been trying to do something for years.They will have huge losses when they announce their finals. The fuel supply market is commoditised and they are a very small player in a business with very small margin.Think a merger with another player would not be a bad idea.....but I guess the CEO who is paid an enormous amount of money want a future for himself so this will not happen either?Unless something comes out of the woodwork soon I can see him being asked to leave.
PIE-EATER
08 Feb 2017
Re: Interesting day ahead Just thinking off the top of my head.....this seems like considering selling the parts that work (and have been seen by many as an anchor to stabilise the company while the boilers take off) to fund the parts that face the bigger and perhaps insurmountable challenges - boilers?If, they can extract a really good price for the energy business, there may be a short term lift but the risks are definitely not improving.. The board give me the impression of trying to salvage what they can.SO glad I sold out a while ago. The only reason why I will keep an eye on this is to see if the FiT situation changes, as previously stated.PE
46Gillingham
08 Feb 2017
Interesting day ahead Large volume today already near 1m So will the SP stay around 6p or will it drop to 4.5-5p?
shadow22
27 Jan 2017
Re: Gossip update Anymore news from your ambassador thehogg2?
PIE-EATER
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier nickimo1you say..."What I don’t like is there’s been no shareholder newsletter since January 2015. I don’t like that there has been no director purchasing of shares, I guess they may be content with their options only.So, I admit it’s not all rosy, but then that’s the element of risk, which personally I’m ok with right now for a limited portion of my portfolio."All I can say is Good Luck! You have more bottle than me on this one (!) and as 46G said, I don't see this as being a 10 bagger.IF, the BoD would get their fingers out and start buying, issuing statements and clarifying the financial position, then potentially the 10-15p range is possible, but beyond that there really does need to be some consolidation at FLOW and a real differentiation from other providers. They don't really have a USP (unlike GOOD or CO-OP for example with their perceived environmental credentials) and all second line providers, i.e. not big 6, are looking to provide good service and competitive pricing.To me, it almost seems like the BoD have their heads in the sand or are stuck in the glare of headlights. The reason I say this is that when they were heading up towards the mid 40s they were constantly issuing announcements, which was great for news flow and the news was good. Now, things have dried up massively, which leads people to be more cautious and so removes some of the enthusiasm for the company. Flow can survive and prosper but I really do think that the board need to change their approach, otherwise I fear for FLOW.GLA...PE
46Gillingham
19 Jan 2017
Re: Future Shadow22Very well put...However I really don't see a 10bagger hereEnergy supply market is now very competitive and commoditised. The big 6 are now responding to challenger brands further reducing marginSo if you gain volume its at a very low margin Flows Market cap is £20m x 10 you are looking at £200m ??Flow must be at a huge disadvantage to the other 40 challengers as others don't have the headache of the boiler business and the groups on going losses.Plus a CEO Tony stiff who has cost the business £800k in the last 2 years...Great salary for a busy which has lost £60m in market value since its high last year.Yes some guidance on the business both short and long would be wonderful.
shadow22
19 Jan 2017
Future If Flow could, somehow, convince people that they aren't going to close the gates tomorrow then the share price would lift. I'm looking and sorely tempted because at current levels this could genuinely be athe least a 10 bagger. But and it's a big but, Flow need to wake up and sort out the muddle they appear to be in. First they must release some statement on the long term viability of the energy business without the need for a fund raise? It's whether Flow actually have a future at all that is concerning shareholders not necessarily whether the mchp boiler will add value. It would be in Jabil's interest to allow an orderly exit from that item should the company go that way. Trouble is we just don't know what is happening. Give us something positive for the future Flow.
46Gillingham
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier My misunderstanding sorry
nickimo1
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier "400,000 new fuels is .8% Not 8%" 8% of the market expected to move away from the big 6, which Flow believe is 5M by 2020.
46Gillingham
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier "Or you could argue that it means 12 months on it would be 127M assuming zero growth"I agree with thisIn the UK we have Approx 26m household being supplied 50m fules (both Gas and Elect)400,000 new fuels is .8% Not 8%....Flow are a small players...Just about the same size as GB energy which went under in November last year.I would Guess their next full year reporting will be a couple of £2m either side of £10m loss.....Good luck with your investment. I sold my holding with a good profit circ 20p in Q2 2016...I will buy back but as I post a month ago I think the price is still to high
nickimo1
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier Don't they mean that in November 2016 at the rate of current sales, had they been doing that consistently for the previous 12 months it would equal 127M? Or you could argue that it means 12 months on it would be 127M assuming zero growth. I think they are both the same thing, but it doesn't mean the revenue forecast is 127M.Their customer numbers started growing rapidly from December 2015 vs. previous slow growth since 2013. This suggests much more focus on this side of the business. At the current rate of growth, if we assume it continues linearly then customer numbers should be closer to 400,000 by December 2017. That would be 8% of the market share Flowgroup expect to move from the big 6 to smaller suppliers by 2020. Not bad going I would say, at £500 average revenue per customer (I’m estimating they are doing somewhere close to that) that could be supporting 200M certainly by December 2018. Putting this into perspective, last reported revenue in December 2015 was 40.39M.I'd be surprised if the share price drops to 3p but this is the market, I don't make price predictions. My opinions are based on looking at if I think the business is growing and well managed, ultimately the market will catch up. I like that Flowgroup have actively tackled the boiler uncertainty, I like that they are being pro-active with European sales if the UK market doesn’t look ideal but aren’t afraid to recognise that they may just need to sell it off. I also like that they are positioning the Dutch boiler. These things help an Energy supplier offer a more comprehensive service and hopefully they can make it profitable sooner rather than later.I like that I have been a customer of Flow since earlier last year and when my current very good fixed rate ends, even the very cheapest supplier is currently only £60 cheaper per year, I wouldn’t bother switching for that personally.Ultimately though, the growth in the energy supply side keeps me interested, but my investment horizon is more what I would call medium term of 2-3 years.What I don’t like is there’s been no shareholder newsletter since January 2015. I don’t like that there has been no director purchasing of shares, I guess they may be content with their options only.So, I admit it’s not all rosy, but then that’s the element of risk, which personally I’m ok with right now for a limited portion of my portfolio.
46Gillingham
19 Jan 2017
Re: Flow The Energy Supplier Nickimo1"With the growth in revenues from energy supply, I would expect the profit after tax to show a much improved position in the next results release."I think you mean the LOSS will be smaller?So we are clear "achieving over £127 million revenue in annualised sales" is the next 12 months." FLOW defends by saying it doesn’t have to be the cheapest due to increasing brand awareness and its award-winning customer service. The company expects to be operationally profitable in 2017; however, the analysts’ projections indicate net-profits to remain elusive at least up to 2019." from an earlier BB postWhich is why the SP is down from April 25p to 6p now.So do you think in the short term the SP will stay at 6p move towards 3p or double to 12p?
thehog2
16 Jan 2017
Re: Gossip update "Looks like the Flow boiler does exist and function which is reassuring but is not suitable for all"S22,I don't think any one boiler can claim to be suitable for all. So agree that the uncertainty, as the company states, is the reason for the restricted roll out. If I was them, I would offer the Flow where viable, but concentrate on getting as many Eco RF boilers out into the market as possible. Local Authorities, Housing Associations, buy to let landlords and new builds should be a very easy sell for a provenly reliable boiler with remote diagnostics and only 12 components.Let's remind ourselves of these selling points:Whisper quietA 10 year warranty Up to 10% more efficient than other A-rated boilers Up to 20% lower carbon emissions Remote control by smartphone as standard Remote diagnostics as standard 20 years' astonishing reliability Small number of component parts meaning less to go wrong Condenses 100% of the time in both heating and hot water mode Exceptional flow rate even in low pressure areas Guaranteed hot water, even if heating fails Automatic weather compensation via Weather Channel link Can come bundled with home energy for biggest savingsWhat's not to like? Priced to sell the trade should love them.TH2
shadow22
16 Jan 2017
Re: Gossip update thehog2,Looks like the Flow boiler does exist and function which is reassuring but is not suitable for all. This would also suggest that the FIT issues and other cost issues are the real reason for the limited/non roll out of that product. The Decc decision will, I feel, be crucial. Thanks for the update.
