MoonMan1977
26 Feb 2018
Re: Looking forward I am not disagreeing with you, certain parts of their business has improved, the concept of a separate brand such as The Buses of Somerset as an example, along with the individual town names on the side of the buses, but I just haven't seen the level of change that I expected. Regarding contact less payment, WiFi and a newer fleet, whilst welcome, these are all things that their competitors such as SGC & GOG are doing so in some respects, unless they are more or superior, all they are actually doing is standing still despite all the investment.
pyueck
25 Feb 2018
Re: Looking forward I actually think first buses have been transformed in quality over the last 5 years. WiFi contactless payments and a newer fleet are now part of the service. Not sure they have their price point exactly right and there are no doubts that less people shop on the high street regularly than they used to. Still it’s not a dying product, unless Corbyn gets his hands on it!Greyhound still has a long way to go in the quality area, I dispute the reasons management have given for the service struggling. They have sighted low fuel price, low cost airlines and weather as reasons. I think it’s more that the service isn’t up to scratch realiability or quality wise. It’s got a bad reputation, speak to somebody from middle class America about travelling greyhound and more often than not they will look at you and say something along the lines of ‘you have to be kidding me, what do you take me for’. If the product was really brought up to scratch and the reputation shook off I think a reliable quality coach service in the USA actually could really fly. But management have not achieved this despite the fleet of buses being infinitely better than they were 10 years ago. The coach stations, reliability and let’s be frank the other clientele are not going to appeal to anything others than those looking for the cheapest option. But despite that it’s not even often that cheap, so even for those in search of the best price may often not be travelling greyhound. Mega bus on the high traffic east coast routes are way cheaper.However let’s not lose sight of reality, Greyhound is 12% of revenue and should be able to be sold off. I think somebody could make a packet out of it and turn it around, but doubt it will be Firstgroup. For Firstgroup they should aim to get a few hundred million for it and put it behind them.
pyueck
25 Feb 2018
Re: Looking forward I actually think first buses have been transformed in quality over the last 5 years. WiFi contactless payments and a newer fleet are now part of the service. Not sure they have their price point exactly right and there are no doubts that less people shop on the high street regularly than they used to. Still it’s not a dying product.Greyhound still has a long way to go in the quality area, I dispute the reasons management have given for the service struggling. They have sighted low fuel price, low cost airlines and weather as reasons. I think it’s more that the service isn’t up to scratch realiability or quality wise. It’s got a bad reputation, speak to somebody from middle class America about travelling greyhound and more often than not they will look at you and say something along the lines of ‘you have to be kidding me, what do you take me for’. If the product was really brought up to scratch and the reputation shook off I think a reliable quality coach service in the USA actually could really fly. But management have not achieved this despite the fleet of buses being infinitely better than they were 10 years ago. The coach stations, reliability and let’s be frank the other clientele are not going to appeal to anything others than those looking for the cheapest option. But despite that it’s not even often that cheap, so even for those in search of the best price may often not be travelling greyhound. Mega bus on the high traffic east coast routes are way cheaper.However let’s not lose sight of reality, Greyhound is 12% of revenue and should be able to be sold off. I think somebody could make a packet out of it and turn it around, but doubt it will be Firstgroup. For Firstgroup they should aim to get a few hundred million for it and put it behind them.
MoonMan1977
24 Feb 2018
Re: Looking forward I really want to buy some of these, having watched the price drop to around a £1 a few years ago (after some negative news which then followed with a rights issue) and then stabilise around there. HOWEVER, I follow the UK bus industry closely and FGP are well renowned for poorly presented vehicles and a fixation upon operating margin rather than product. A couple of years ago, they seem to have admitted that this approach was wrong and said that they would focus more on product. I was quite excited when Giles Fearnley and Tim O'Toole joined the company but a few years later and it seems as much of a mess as it always was. FGP appear to be one of those companies where they focus all of their attention on spreadsheets to try and make money (such as re-financing) which whilst correct to a point, means that they have nowhere near the attention to detail nor appetite for innovation that gave them the company in the first place!
hairyhelmet
23 Feb 2018
Looking forward I agree with the points being made about debt costs falling, cash generation and all the good things that could be. My main concern is that with such low expectations the share still took a big hit. If there was a really mild winter would that have meant "on target". Ditch the Greyhound ops and reduce debt like Pyueck said. Still holding. Interestingly if I had been new to this stock it would be a screaming BUY. Its all about the management or lack of.
nk1999
22 Feb 2018
Shore Capital "FirstGroup will shake ‘distressed’ label, says Shore Capital Bus and train operator FirstGroup’s (FGP) position as a ‘distressed’ stock is unlikely to last as it refinances its bond debt, says Shore Capital.Analyst Martin Brown retained his ‘buy’ recommendation despite FirstGroup trading behind expectations as it has refinanced $275 million (£197 million) of debt, saving c.£14 million a year in interest. The shares tumbled 12.1% to 84.4p yesterday.‘Prior to any changes to our forecasts, FirstGroup is trading on a March 2018 price/earnings of 7.4x... importantly net free cashflow yield is forecast to rise to 11.4% in March 2019,’ he said. ‘FirstGroup continues to trade as a distressed stock, with cash generation now kicking in, the bond refinancing underway and a likely imminent return to the dividend list, the current valuation is unlikely to last for long.’"(From Citywire)
pyueck
22 Feb 2018
Undervalued There is no doubt the last 8 months for a FGP shareholder have been depressing.8 months ago it looked like things were really turning round. Cash finally coming in, high valued debt being refinanced at lower rates soon, a nice new contract for a rail franchise and a general election promising another 5 years of a Conservative government friendly to outsourcers. The share price was at a post rights issue high.8 months on and the share price has fallen the rights issue price. The company seems to have a division in greyhound in near terminal decline and the others not exactly galloping ahead.However let's get something straight. For all the problems, they only said that they expected EPS to be slightly below expectations and significant cash generation forecasts unchanged. In addition substantial savings are beginning to be made refinancing debt, which will continue to over the next few years to get larger.If I was Firstgroup management I would try to sell greyhound. It is 12% of the businesses revenue and the negative press from it is bringing down the whole group. The group posted revenue growth in the period, despite the challenges. Yes I know the company has no where near achieved it's goals when launching the rights issue (double digit margins I remember being talked about back then that I now never hear). But this has a P/E ratio of under 9 with earnings growing. Yes they may have a setback this year but I believe Transit, Student, Rail and Bus are fundamentally decent businesses, especially Transit and Student. If they sell off Greyhound to pay down debt a bit more I think the shareprice would react very positively.I am not going to predict anything beyond saying I haven't given up hope. I think a lot of other investors this week have. But as I have said for ages the refinancing of debt at a lower rate will be absolutely huge for the bottom line for this company. Once that is done in a few years cash generation should be really strong and a big dividend flow could be in the offing.
Spieler
21 Feb 2018
Re: Perennial disappointment Will there ever be any improvement with the board as it is at the moment?
RichardLY
21 Feb 2018
Brokers as usual Re: Update tomorrow too positive, none of them giving accurate reports considering the realities...?
Ripley94
21 Feb 2018
Re: Update tomorrow RNS .. Was not liked down 13%
hairyhelmet
21 Feb 2018
Perennial disappointment AAArrhhh. Every time when things should be getting better they come out with an excuse. Employment both sides of the pond is high, nothing unexpected about some snow in the East USA. This group should be motoring ahead. Debt is reducing. But the bottom line is stuck, in fact going backwards for goodness sake. The problems they have is with poor management as usual. Cut the underperformers from the portfoilio and start to generate income and some excitement. Thank goodness I didn`t top up!! Rant over. I will hold for a better exit.
pyueck
21 Feb 2018
My view on the trading update The trading update was again poor and strewn with excuses. Bad weather is to be expected in the US, low cost flights are not new and certainly not going away and a driver shortage is probably indicative of a poor worker proposition rather than there being anything wrong with the US labor market. The long distance greyhound model in it's current guise looks an outdated model, I have tried it and it is expensive, subject to delays and involves sitting in some pretty grubby bus depots in not the best parts of towns. It has a purpose, many towns in America are very poorly connected by any other means, but as you would only use the service if a) you don't have a car or b) there is no low cost flight between the locations the target market I suspect is in terminal decline. In my opinion radical transformation is required in Greyhound, focus on delivering regular good quality services to the most profitable routes.The good thing is the restructure of the debt. This really will be transformational for profits in a few years.
pyueck
21 Feb 2018
Re: Update tomorrow Na it was bad weather in the us this time and oh low cost flights.
magoo100
20 Feb 2018
Re: Update tomorrow No doubt it will be same old bad uk weather that has affected profits
hairyhelmet
20 Feb 2018
Update tomorrow I am not too hopeful given the recent plunge in the share price. Sterling making life difficult and the usual plethora of excuses as to why trading was impacted. In the last update most of the growth came from the USA. I expect the same with lower growth from the UK. It will be interesting to see if operating margins are talked about. All the best for you weary holders out there.
