hairyhelmet
08 May 2018
Still holding and hoping I am surprised that no details leaked out about the bid. The good news is that Apollo though it was worth a look and that made a second ( probably better) offer. The bad news is we are back to where we started. I imagine the final results on 31st May will gloss over the offer and concentrate on The Beast from the East. I still think there is a decent business here if the focus was on cutting loose the dead wood and lowering debt. After all that`s what would happen under new ownership. Still holding for now, as its not too big a chunk of my portfolio.HH
pyueck
08 May 2018
Re: Share buyout? Why didn’t they reveal the price? My opinion is because they didn’t want to put themselves under pressure. As I don’t know what price was offered I can’t say what are management doing rejecting £x as if I argue that management should have accepted the bid it’s assuming that the Apollo bid was decent.Apollo could have chosen to go hostile and direct to shareholders, but have decided against it.Management better have something decent up their sleeve, can’t believe one shareholder is happy with current management. Support for the board is at all time lows. But it’s amazing how long poor management that runs companies with seemingly no regard for shareholders can stay in post. Look at premier foods.
Derek Hope
08 May 2018
Share buyout? I think is disgraceful that the board of First Group did not impart the information contained in the bid to shareholders, rejected it out of hand without any reference to shareholders. The company is owned by the shareholders and the board work for the company-how can this be right?
hairyhelmet
08 May 2018
Re: Deal is off I agree - No surprise. What we need now is a reaction from the major shareholders, to put pressure on the management. Like everyone else, I knew I should have walked away. GRRR HH
pyueck
08 May 2018
Deal is off The deal is off. Can’t say I’m surprised, Fgp management have too much ego to accept reality. Bad result for shareholders.
pyueck
03 May 2018
Re: No news is good news Mangoo what's a done deal? Why are you coming to that conclusion. Even if a deal is still possible, which it definitely is but not holding my breath, to say it's done is...simply wrong.No idea what management thinking here but it probably is along the lines of 'let's put together a half cobbled plan by the end of May to show why rejecting the deal is a good idea'. Hopefully Apollo will realise that the views of management and shareholders are not aligned and that they should bypass management as soon as possible and go hostile. Whether they will do that who knows, as often bidders don't like going hostile as it can harm the thing you are trying to save.
magoo100
02 May 2018
Re: No news is good news There is still loads of after closing buys at a higher price so someone is still buying and I think it’s a done deal
hairyhelmet
02 May 2018
Re: No news is good news Hi Pyueck. I don`t disagree with your predictions. I am only happy that the bad news isn`t today and there is still a sliver of hope. I absolutely agree that management don`t have a handle on this. The bad deal was done years ago buying Laidlaw. Current management are ignoring this, but the surgery needs to be done. Still holding as the break up value is there.HH
pyueck
02 May 2018
Re: No news is good news Hairy disagree - think in these cases no news is bad news. If they had agreed a price they would come to the market with it. Fully expecting on the 9th Apollo to say something on the lines of 'Despite making significant efforts to engage with management to discuss a price at a significant premium to the pre-announcement price, due to Firstgroup management not wanting to engage, we will not be proceeding with this acquisition'. Let's hope not but got zero confidence in management doing the right thing here.
hairyhelmet
02 May 2018
No news is good news The daily tune in has revealed - no news, at least Apollo hasn`t walked away. A steady turnover in shares but nothing to excite the market. Sterling falling can only help. Still think some one will make a move whether it is management deciding to be a bit pro-active or a straight buy out. Any of the two should be better than the status quo. HH
pyueck
27 Apr 2018
Re: Sale or no sale? They probably prefer the status quo.As I said before the takeover bid was announced a sale of Greyhound (worst performing division) at a decent price to pay down debt would in my opinion be highly advantageous for the shareprice. In terms of whether doing that, accepting Apollo's (or somebody else's) bid or continuing as is all depends on:- What somebody will buy Greyhound for - somebody may actually buy it to shut it down in part or whole and sell the depots off!- What Apollo's offer was- How the business is performing since the last pretty bad (but let's not forget not totally dire) trading updateWe have no idea what Apollo's bid was, maybe it was 80p and the board were right to reject it. Think the board should let shareholders know though. Also no idea if Apollo are lining up a new bid or even a hostile takeover. As GKN showed ultimately its shareholders not management that decide if a takeover happens. Can't imagine too many FGP shareholders have much affection for the current management and would not want out at anything 125p plus.I have no confidence though in management doing the right thing here, and that worries me.
magoo100
27 Apr 2018
Sale or no sale? Personally think the board will split company up itself now rather than sell on,any views?
hairyhelmet
22 Apr 2018
Re: Ticking up It is always painful, for many reasons, accepting a loss. In this case I am fortunate enough to be in the black, but with other holdings over the years I have eventually seen the merit in moving on when It doesn`t go to plan. Its like owning a dud car with a shiny paint job. FGP needs a major overhaul and the current board have no plans to do it. Move aside and let someone with a plan take over. I believe FGP is almost certain to have new owners so will hold out till 130p comes along.HH
dronaig
20 Apr 2018
Re: Ticking up / pyueck Fair enough. I think this is probably a classic case of accepting and taking a ‘loss’ ,moving on and looking to throw the proceeds into a decent yielding investment trust.
pyueck
20 Apr 2018
Re: Ticking up 200p!!!! That would be a rise of over 2.5 times from the price (77p) before the market got wind of the deal. I think 150 would be amazing, I think 125-130 more likely. Whatever the price, management don't let this opportunity go. As I learnt with PFD, before a firm offer is made shareholders can say oh i want x or y price above the amount offered, but let's be clear if they walk the price will be back below 100p in an instant.Myself I am even tempted to sell out now as I have no confidence that the management will do the right thing by shareholders here, just like PFD didn't. They may be thinking about their nice cushy jobs, and thinking why shake the tree.Maybe they at the end of May will come out with a half baked story of how things will improve. And then inevitably we will get the next update giving excuses as to why not just were those targets missed but the business is going backwards.Just like PFD did, when they had the takeover approach they went to shareholders with all these incredible targets the business would be meeting. A year later they ripped it up and replaced the targets.Management of FGP, the market has no confidence in you or your promises. Shareholders have been fed a barrel full of excuses for years and we are fed up of it. The best thing for shareholders is an exit at a half decent price now, or an immediate breakup and sale of the business if this raises more cash than what Apollo is offering.The status quo is not an option, you may like it to be but it is not.My message to Apollo is, don't overly worry what management thinks. FGP's shareholders are very open to an offer, offer anything over 125p, go hostile and you should get the vote from shareholders.
