tegami01
20 Aug 2015
Interesting opinion piece... [link] discount to NAV is 20%!
San Jaime
19 Aug 2015
Re: Chinese devaluation... China seems intent on keeping the value of their currency undervalued. One reason for keeping the exchange rate low is that their exports are more competitive and hopefully leading to higher growth which will be reflected in stock prices. However, not sure that this will work in the short term as Chinese investors, many new to the stock market, have been burnt in the recent downturn in their investments and they appear to be in no hurry to get back in to the market at the moment.FCSS was focusing on the the Consumer Market in China and unfortunately consumer confidence has been quite severely impacted by the market volatility and downturn this year.. Despite government intervention in the market, it may take us some time to get backup near 200p. The interesting thing is - Will we see the 2015 bottom of around 120p again.?Personally am holding on in here, as I have done since the fund was launched, being an Investor rather than a Trader..... SJ.
Ripley94
18 Aug 2015
Re: Chinese devaluation... ???
tegami01
12 Aug 2015
Chinese devaluation... Devaluation are designed to boost Chinese economy and hence (presumably) stock market, so why the falls in China? Probably a very naive question, but any answers?
Kingel
31 Jul 2015
Lazard lifts Fidelity China stake Value investor Lazard Asset Management emerges with 9% of Fidelity China Special Situations as its shares slide in the Shanghai mayhem.A 9% fall in Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS + ) this week had Lazard Asset Management, a hardened investment trust investor, nibbling at the shares.Lazards, a well-known value investor in closed-ended funds, lifted its stake in FCSS to 9.1% on Tuesday, a day after Shanghai’s sickening 8.5% plunge.It bought 547,500 more shares in the fund Dale Nicholls took on from Anthony Bolton last year, to take its total to 50.4 million.Fidelity owns 40% of the China trust so is unlikely to be troubled by the build-up in its register, although it’s interesting to see Wells Capital Management, another experienced discount hunter, has 1.66%, according to Thomson Reuters data. Other leading investors include Legal & General, UBS, Aberdeen Asset Management and Henderson Global Investors.FCSS shares have slid nearly 20% in the past three months although in terms of their discount they are not the bargain they were three weeks ago when the trust traded 23% below net asset value (NAV).Still the share price stood 17% below NAV at yesterday's close, below its one-year average of 12.5%, which gives it a Z-score of -1.9, enough to put it in Numis Securities’ list of the 15 ‘cheapest’ investment trust shares (see table below).Rival JPMorgan Chinese (JMC + ) has a similar discount but looks even better value with a Z-score of -2.7.Just to recap, the Z-score measure indicates whether an investment trust share lies significantly beyond its usual trading range. A Z-score of -2 or below shows it is ‘cheap’ while 2 or above is regarded as 'expensive'.FOR THE FULL INFO[link]
II Editor
27 Jul 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Expect fallout from desperate measures in desperate times "Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? With Greece's exit from the eurozone apparently averted after premier Alexis Tsipras accepted the terms of a third bailout, and China's stockmarket on the rebound from a rapid 32% fall ..."[link]
tegami01
15 Jul 2015
Discount to NAV... ...is now over 20%! Crazy. A real arb opp.
Kingel
13 Jul 2015
Investors leap on Fidelity China In the past month the trust’s shares have plunged as the speculative bubble in Shanghai A-shares burst dramatically. last Thursday the share price had fallen nearly 23% below the trust’s net asset value, a record low for the five-year old fund that was launched by star manager Anthony Bolton and passed to Dale Nicholls a year ago.That prompted an intervention from Nicholls who sought to reassure shareholders about the defensive steps he took to protect the portfolio before the recent crash and to reiterate his faith in the fund’s long-term prospects.That coincided with a rebound in the Shanghai Composite index as the authorities implemented more extraordinary measures to restore calm in the stock market.From a low for the year of 125p on last Wednesday’s close the £790 million trust rallied to end the week at 141p and was poised to close today at nearly 144p.That narrowed the discount to nearly 19% by Friday’s close compared to a 12-month average of just over 12%. That gave it a Z-score of -3, enough to push it into Numis Securities’ list of top 15 ‘cheap’ trusts (see first table).Just to recap, a Z-score over -2 is generally considered to show that a discount is significantly larger than normal, ie, the trust’s shares may be ‘cheap’ compared to history.Conversely, a Z-score above 2 shows the trust’s share price is trading above its normal range and may be ‘expensive’ (see second table).Fidelity China is a volatile fund that has given its shareholders a turbulent ride. That partly reflects the nature of the Chinese stock market and the relatively high level of gearing (borrowing) the trust uses to maximise long-term returns.Even after the rally of recent days the trust has fallen 15% over one month. However, over one year it has delivered a total return to shareholders of nearly 40%, rising to nearly 94% over three years but falling back to 50% over five.These are unusual times for the fund as the authorities attempt to clamp down on disorderly trading for fear it could spill over to the wider economy.Fidelity, the trust’s management group says it does not hold more than 5% of any A-share and therefore has not been affected by the government banning trading by larger shareholders.We have asked the company if any of the trust’s holdings are among the 1,500 so A-stocks in which all trading has been suspended and await an answer.For the full story.[link]
Kingel
09 Jul 2015
Dale Nicholls: Fidelity China is going back in Manager of Fidelity China Special Situations investment trust buys back into the country's stock market, saying the crash has gone too far.Dale Nicholls, manager of Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS + ) investment trust, has sought to reassure shareholders about the fund’s prospects amid the turmoil gripping the country’s stock markets.In comments emailed to Citywire following a 28% slump in the fund’s share price in the past month, Nicholls said: ‘Investors have clearly been spooked by the correction in the markets, but I think this is overdone and is creating good buying opportunities.’The manager revealed that having put the trust on a more cautious footing before the crash when he increased the number of ‘short’ bets that stocks would fall, he had recently taken advantage of the slide in share prices to buy into the market and raise the number of conventional ‘long’ positions in stocks he thinks will rise.‘With the run up in the market I significantly reduced net exposure in the trust. In recent days this has started to increase again as I have added to long positions and reduced shorts. Market falls in some stocks are clearly overdone and offering real value,’ he said.The plunge in China’s stock markets yesterday saw the trust’s share price close at 122.4p, nearly 18% below the fund’s net asset value per share of nearly 153p. This is a discount of nearly 18%, the widest it has been all year, which may intensify pressure for the trust to buy back more of its shares.Today, however, the shares bounced back nearly 6% as the latest frantic efforts of the Chinese government to stabilise the stock market paid off.In extraordinary moves that stunned analysts, China yesterday banned major shareholders and executives from selling shares in listed companies for six months.Nicholls, who took over the £683 million trust from Anthony Bolton over a year ago, has been wary of exposure to China’s financial system and is unimpressed with the speculative bubble that was fuelled by local investors borrowing big sums to bet on shares.The country’s stock market remains semi-frozen with the shares of around 1,500 companies suspended, which Nicholls said ‘creates more market disruption and forces investors to question the efficiency of these markets.’He added: ‘Recent events have shown that the rapid growth in margin-led investing clearly got ahead of itself in the sharp market run and we are now feeling the effects as this is unwound. This will likely take some time and markets will remain volatile.‘Policy response on the whole has been disappointing and in many ways runs contrary to the spirit of broader reforms and general market liberalisation,’ he commented.Nicholls said government’s attempt to tackle speculators by imposing restrictions on shorting the stock market index had prevented legitimate investors from hedging their long-term positions.He also said investors would look quizzically at companies that had been dragooned by the government into providing funds for stock market during the mayhem and would ‘question their priorities’.However, in contrast to commentators who worry China's stock market woes could spill over into its economy and perhaps damage global finance, Nicholls remains excited by what he called ‘an abundance of prospective investment opportunities’.‘China is an immature market and there are many issues that need to be addressed, but it is also offers great opportunities for stock pickers given the strong structural growth opportunities and valuation anomalies in the market,’ he concluded.Despite the falls, the trust remains ahead of the MSCI China index. Over one, three and five years it has generated total shareholder returns of 18.5%, 66% and 29% while the index has returned 15%, 28% and 22% over those periods. It has 19% gearing - or borrowing - which remains comparatively high although lower than the 25% it had earlier this year. [link]
holland44
09 Jul 2015
Re: I'M OUT Shanghai composite currently up 5.7% at 3710. An Interactive Investor commentator is calling a bottom of 3075 unless the index finishes above 3768, when it could bounce up to 5780. See [link] this market takes stronger nerves than I have, but arguably if you can buy low, the long-term trends remain positive.
le vin est par
09 Jul 2015
Re: I'M OUT Cue 5% rise!!
le vin est par
08 Jul 2015
Re: I'M OUT I'm out too while still a profit to take. 16% in my case. Was 50% a month ago. Thought about selling on that milestone. Then remembered that you are supposed to run your profits. Silly me.
Kingel
08 Jul 2015
China's stock market rout gathers strength The violent sell-off in Chinese stocks has gathered strength, with the country's stock market falling 5.9% and a raft of companies suspending trading in their shares.China investors have continued to dump shares, despite efforts from the country's government to support the market. The country's main stock market, the Shanghai Composite, has now lost nearly a third of its value over the last month.Investment trusts with exposure to the country have taken a hit in morning trading. Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS + ) was the biggest faller on the FTSE 250 index, falling 8.7% to 123.8p, while Templeton Emerging Markets (TEMIT + ), which holds more than two-thirds of its funds in the Asia Pacific region, fell 2.1% to 491.1p.On the FTSE Small Cap index, JPMorgan Chinese (JMC + ) was the biggest faller, down 5.3% at 157.8p, while trusts with broader Asian exposure were also down. Fallers included:Aberdeen New Dawn (ABD + ) -3.2% at 170.8p;Henderson Far East (HFEL + ) -3.1% at 307.4p;Pacific Horizon (PHI + ) -3% at 183.2p.On the FTSE 100, banks, insurers and fund groups with exposure to Asia were all hit, including:Standard Chartered (STAN + ) -1.4% at 984.6p;HSBC (HSBA + ) -1.3% at 551.4p;Prudential (PRU + ) -1.2% at £14.94;Aberdeen Asset Management (ADN + ) -0.8% at 386.9p.The rout of the Chinese stock market also spilled over into commodity prices, given the country's status as the world's top metals consumer.FOR MORE OF STORY[link]
donkeyjawbone
07 Jul 2015
Re: I'M OUT Nothing until after St Ledger's day
Kingel
07 Jul 2015
I'M OUT Been in from the start April 2010 out with a 37% rise.Could have been worse.Pity Bolton hadn't gone a few years earlier!What to buy instead?
