Callun
12 Sep 2017
Results ...do not appear to have been well recieved.Despite the tone of confidence, the Chairman's statement "... based on the half year result, the dividend for the full year is now not expected to be substantially covered by adjusted EPRA earnings per share" is worrying. After all, if not for the dividend, why would I invest here?Callun
Eadwig
25 Aug 2017
Re: Foreign Students annieoldiron2,I think you'll find that foreign students make up about 50% of ESP's premium revenue accommodations, although the figures are a little out of date, so it may have changed.Most post graduates are foreign students, the fastest area of growth in the last given figures, and ESP have a very high percentage of post grad students in their premium accommodation.The uncertainty has meant that numbers peaked LAST year, so ESP are no longer operating in a growth market, although I'm 100% certain it could be again when this political nonsense is put aside. The drop has been from within the UK and students from the EU. I have not yet seen any figures for 2017/18 (this year) for foreign students.If anyone has a source, I'd be very glad if you could pass on a link.
Chucko63
25 Aug 2017
Re: Foreign Students Even though the report is due in a year's time (seems amazing, but then think how long other notable reports have taken to produce and thank your lucky stars), the tone relating to foreign students appears to have markedly changed the past week or so. Not that I ever considered it a major risk, but at least the political winds are changing from chilly to warm.It will not affect the current academic year, and I would be surprised if they are not fully let as has always been the case. Absence of political interference means that the success of ESP (by which I mean circa 8% per annum) becomes decreasingly uncertain. Were it a function of one single factor - management competence - then I would be comfortable enough with that.
annieoldiron2
24 Aug 2017
Re: Foreign Students The A level results were out last week and UK students are now signing up for accommodation with term starting Sept 23rd or thereabouts. That is the higher volume market so I am not too bothered about foreign students. Empiric and others will have a pretty good idea of rental bookings and hopefully there will be a statement issued in the next few weeks to report the take up.
Eadwig
24 Aug 2017
Foreign Students The government has ordered a report on the numbers, their impact on the economy and the quality of British education and how many pay £75k for 3 years education and accommodation and then become cash-in-hand waiters in the UK's black economy. ('kin nobbers! Why pander to the Daily Mail?).At last, they're waking up to the potential disaster they are causing and appear to be preparing for a prolonged U-turn.The bad news is, the report isn't due to be delivered until SEPTEMBER 2018. So another academic year (2018/19) at least to be damaged. Chances are May will be gone by then and her predecessor will hopefully not have the same (student visa rules) baggage or a bigoted outlook and can cut through the nonsense.
seadoc
02 Aug 2017
Re: Rest of open offer...? ... is toast.Pref,ESP were raising money to buy "things" Perhaps a bit like a child with pocket money, less money, better choices. I hope same applies to ESP.Regards,Seadoc
PrefInvestor1
24 Jul 2017
Rest of open offer...? Hi All,As it's undersubscribed will they end up selling the rest at a discount to the offer price though ?. That might be why the share price has dropped to the open offer price today, though it could just be because it's a market down day.Can't help feeling that it would have been better had they all been sold.....ATBPref
Chucko63
24 Jul 2017
Re: Results of Equity Issue Obviously not interesting enough for you! But if I can find a stock that will earn circa 8% per annum (long run) and augment that by trading it to nearer 10% per annum, works for me.Of course, there are lots of people who target much more interesting returns, getting involved in far more volatile stocks.. How many of them do you think succeed in that?
r21442
21 Jul 2017
Re: Results of Equity Issue this is an interesting trading stock also.---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --Really?Bar a couple of event triggered spikes this thing trades +/-1%.Am I missing something?
Chucko63
20 Jul 2017
Re: Results of Equity Issue Yes, indeed. I could not track down those numbers but that is consistent with this being possibly the poorest subscribed Offer I can recall with ESP.I had a suspicion of this as I noted two days ago I had been credited with ALL my allocation even prior to the official close. This had not occurred before.Moreover, this is one of the reasons that I had been scaling out of some of my holdings the past few weeks as I though there was a higher chance that this new Offer (even though not a fact at the time), might struggle a little owing to Brexit/political issues.That said, for those who believe, this is a nice entry point. We have a been as low as down 1.25p today (dividend adjusted) whereas previous Offers have seen stable to positive price action in the aftermath.Never mind the long term, this is an interesting trading stock also.
PhilipJD
20 Jul 2017
Re: Results of Equity Issue my calculation, around £31 million of the shortfall is in the Open Offer (71,611,295 shares made available, 43,123,330 issued) so seems folks were not prepared to take up their entitlement/ subscribe for excess shares.
Chucko63
20 Jul 2017
Results of Equity Issue They had announced that they were intending to raise "up to £150mm". In the end, they had to settle for £110mm and it does seem to me that existing shareholders are at or near their limit! Perhaps they have been disappointed with annualised total returns, so far. That is a direct result of the frequent equity raises at a fixed small premium to NAV.All this means that ESP is for the long run.
Rhigos
12 Jul 2017
Re: Open offer Eadwig, "I think UNITE Group (UTG) are the biggest provider by far - and have been planning to change to a REIT"The FT article certainly mentioned UNITE and although the largest (about 3 times Mkt Cap of ESP or DIGS and quoted on AIM in 1992, moved to main market in 2000 and is classed as a REIT) they were concentrating on a different sub sector, 'Residential REIT' whereas UTG is 'Hotel and lodging REIT', in particular article about investments in student property. UNITE Group has a forecast yield of 3.56%. I have no shares in UNITE Group so rather skimmed over that part of article. DIGS been quoted since May 2013 and ESP since 30 Jun 2014. Relative SP performance since 30 June 2014:UTG +60%DIGS +30%ESP +11%Having looked at fundamentals for UTG do not fancy investing in them as forecast pre-tax profit and EPS growth -65.8% and -68.8%. Broker consensus weak buy. On the plus side they have very progressive dividend growth since 2011 and a PE of only 6.7. Might be worth considering they look cheap.
Eadwig
11 Jul 2017
Re: Another consideration? Chucko63,You may already be using this, but if not you might find it of interest. I've certainly found it useful from time to time, and perhaps the easiest and quickest way to get an idea of UK indices market caps.Its free and no guarantees on the information, but I've used it for several years now and never been let down by it: [link]
Chucko63
10 Jul 2017
Re: Another consideration? The 240th share in the FTSE250 has a market cap of £475mm. The 200th is £752mm.There or thereabouts.Current market cap of ESP is £558mm. Market cap of Unite Group is £1,561mm and is in the FTSE250, the All Share and a bunch of other smaller indices.
