CatoCR
12 Dec 2017
Re: CEO terminated [link]
paddington_bear
12 Dec 2017
CEO terminated Well, that sounds like a sacking without cause, so another million pounds in pay offs, compensation for notice, options etc.PB. Gla, I am no longer interested in this share.
Rhigos
08 Dec 2017
Re: New Normal? Easwig, "ESP are by far the biggest drag on my SIPP now. Once again chasing yield causes me losses whereas my investments in 'high risk' growth assets continue to see me hitting new all-time highs month in and month out. It could have been a lot worse."Similar story in my portfolio. ESP has the dubious honour of hitting more all-time low closing SP than any of shares. My stop loss trigger price occurred in Sep, should have sold then. ESP has become a dog of a share. Keep thinking it will recover and it falls more. Wheels fallen of business model. I pointed out ages ago that DIGS was outperforming ESP in hindsight should have dumped ESP then.
finlassie
07 Dec 2017
Re: New Normal? Good summary. And it also has a very ugly chart and we are in a market which is lacking confidence and punishing disappointing updates. I think 70 pence is likely over the next 3 months and it could drift lower. I sold out completely at 89 pence . Like you I would need a much more positive update to get involved again
TX2
30 Nov 2017
Re: New Normal? The problem about the dividend here is that it is unlikely to be covered by earnings;basically they are paying the divi out of capital.Whilst I think Empiric may have potential;unless & until it can get its act together regarding the efficent management of its properties and show it is capable of making a reasonable net rental return it is not a viable business proposition.I value it at no more than 70p presently.
triceratops
30 Nov 2017
Re: New Normal? The Business review released on November 23rd talks about a 5p dividend for year ending 2018? So to get a 6% yield I'd be looking to buy at or close to 83p. For what it's worth I do feel there is an over supply of student accommodation coming online in some university towns so I'm not sure inflationary price rises should be taken for granted.It will work out in time though and I'll be happy enough buying in at around 83-86p and holding for the long term in my REIT/Infrastructure pot.Tops
Eadwig
24 Nov 2017
New Normal? People invested in ESP for the promised 6% divi per year on the @100p first IPO price with a raise by at least RPI each year and the hope of some asset value growth too of course.At a price of @90p ESP gives a yield of 6.1% if dividends for the year are 5.55pps, which is about where we were at with the initial model, less any RPI raise this year, which should have taken it to around 6.3pps for the year. So perhaps @88-90p is the new normal basis for going forward because It seems to me the market is adjusting the share price downwards to a point where the initial promised yield is still being achieved. I'm wondering about averaging down from @105p but I don't want to pay any more than @89p at the moment. I'm not sure its a good idea at all anyway with a TWO year recovery plan and a hard Brexit looming. In fact I think I'll give it a miss until I hear that recovery plan is a return to the high end niche market and the 2025 plan is scrapped along with fighting for low-end market share.ESP are by far the biggest drag on my SIPP now. Once again chasing yield causes me losses whereas my investments in 'high risk' growth assets continue to see me hitting new all-time highs month in and month out. It could have been a lot worse. At least I saw this coming and got rid of the larger part of my holding at about 25p above the current price. I never expected such a big drop, even on a divi cut, though, I must admit. hence the reason I still have some.I'll learn the lesson one day about putting 'safe high yielders' in my SIPP - although who could have predicted a Tory government bending over backwards to trash the last remaining growth sector(s) in the economy? If Brexit was a vote of protest by those left behind, dragging everyone else down to the same sort of level (except those families that are generationally rich, that is) isn't going to really help, is it?Eadwig
TX2
23 Nov 2017
Re: Dividend cut... The main thing to understand about Empiric is that it is not a typical REIT or even a usual property company.Most REITs & property companies have a relatively small number of properties which they rent out on long term full repairing & insuring leases on perhaps an initial 15 year term with rent reviews every five years.In other words there is a very high visibility of income & costs.Empiric is letting out its properties to 7000 or so individual students each at best on a short term annual contract & is responsible for maintaining the properties down to fitting light bulbs & unblocking sinks.Quite a complex business with considerable management cost and capital cost in wear and referbs.If you get it right it might be very profitable,but a lot of work to end up with a 6% net return on year assets which so far has not in the main been obtained.Most of the return to date has come from revaluation of properties not from net rental income.This revaluation profit does not produce cash to pay dividends & can only be converted into cash if you sell the properties at the improved valuation.The jury is out here.If it can rent out its rooms at good prices and manage well it could in the words of Arthur Daley be "A nice little earner" producing well above the 6 or 7% net return;if not it could continue to struggle.The company as a backstop does have a solid asset base which should give some protection but it has a lot of work to do.
Rusty Jock
23 Nov 2017
Re: Dividend cut... And they now seem to have a new FD who can actually work out what the figures mean and come up with plans to rectify the inefficience
My name is Bond James Bond
23 Nov 2017
Re: Dividend cut... There are 3 issues that have been identified. Firstly the cash drag as a result of issuing new shares to fund developement against which no current revenue is being generated. Secondly cost inefficiencies in locations with smaller developments. Thirdly decentralisation of procurement leading to cost inefficiencies. These are all now being addressed. Centralisation and a focus on core locations combined with future income streams from the new developments causing the current cash drag should enable dividends to be covered at levels that shareholders have become used to from maybe 2020 onwards. Regar
Blanketstacker
23 Nov 2017
Dividend cut... ...this year AND next. Not happy, but expected.
Chucko63
16 Nov 2017
Four Shopping Days Left On Thursday, I expect get we will have a good shot at interpreting what really happened earlier in the year to cause an unexpectedly negative trading update in late September.Although I have no greater confidence than anyone else in what may come out, I would focus on the following both then and now.1. The heavy selling of the last few weeks is just starting to abate. Although we are only 1p higher over the past two days, there seems to have been an end to the perpetual individual sales of 500,000 shares (and numerous other round lots of 250,000 and 100,000) I was hoping to be able to see who was selling, but no announcements have been made and no material changes to the published holders of ESP is evident. I do wonder if market makers were caught out in September and had bought the initial selling with a view that it was a safe stock to hold inventory (always has been before), but were themselves then forced to liquidate. We may never know the answer to this whichever way next Thursday goes.2. I have read a fair degree of commentary on ESP on various boards the past few weeks. It simply amazes me that not a single posting has referred to the actual conference call and what was said at that time. Believing or not believing what the CEO had to say at that time is, in my opinion, by far the key determinant for the future prospects here. Additionally, interpreting the very brief comments made relating to the cost “overruns” and the even briefer comments relating to the previous CFO is something that few, if any, seem bothered with.3. Relative to points 1.and 2. above, the actual trading comments next Thursday that relate to occupancy for 2018/19 etc. or new developments etc. are of minor significance to me. Ditto for Brexit and such like (well, within reason).4. Now for a controversial comment! Small to mid-cap asset-backed stocks such as this, and I also include closed-end funds, especially when there is an element of structure or leverage (recall the split cap funds of 2001-3 vintage) attract analysis that is generally of the lowest standard relative to the opportunity available. It does appear that the note that Numis published, and I have not seen it, is a major cause of this near 15% drop. Numis were on the conference call to which I refer above, and asked one question. Personally, I fail to see how they derive such a negative view from the bland response given by the CEO. But unless investors listen to that exchange themselves and form their own view, they appear to be missing the most important ingredients regarding ESP.Perhaps I am the dimmest investor of the lot. If so, I must be the luckiest - I have never failed to make reasonable money on these sorts of stocks which involve assets and/or structure. That said, I have little immediate defense to misinformation or dishonest activity were that ever to present itself.
paddington_bear
11 Nov 2017
Failed review Several more hours looking at this share, presently priced at 7% below NAV, which is quite a feat for a property share in this dividend desperate market. The latest announcement that there will be an announcement on November 23rd promised two parts - a market update and news of a dividend. Thus stated, it is obvious they are still scrabbling around for funds to pay the overdue fourth divi, otherwise there would be a proper declaration now for full amount.As for news, it would not be difficult to show improvement in many areas, but this company operates officially on 97% occupancy rates.Therefore even minor drops turn the figures adverse, plus they have a lot of money tied up in new building work, refurbishments and investments where they hope to redevelope sites. None of these is earning a penny towards costs and debt.Expansion is all very well, but even the hierarchy seem unsure as to the type of units and their locations desirable under plan A (quality) or B (2025/economy). There is a finite supply of overseas students who are rich enough for group A and even those are principally single year targets, meaning huge turnover annually. There is nothing wrong with niche operations, but to enter the plebeian end against HMO, family and University owned structures requires a different approach with few obvious cost overlaps. Unless Nov 23rd brings a phenomenal RNS, I see no reason to chance a dividend cut and more inadequate management, when I have so many other choices out there.Good luckPB
PhilipJD
07 Nov 2017
Re: I'm sure it's nothing, but ....... From news feed today - 'Empiric Student Property intends to issue a trading update, together with a dividend declaration in respect of the quarter ended 30 Sep, on 23 Nov.'. [link]
smilingmickey1
04 Nov 2017
Re: I'm sure it's nothing, but ....... Maybe the sale announced of the Sterling Property will generate enough cash to enable the target divi payment?
