Rhigos
27 Apr 2018
I'm out My limit order to sell all my ESP at 85p or more met after 3 days this morning. Capital loss of 23% overall loss 12.8%. May have come good if I had held on but felt it could take a least a year or two. Shares often seem to go up after I sell so probably good for those hanging on 
Regarding student accommodation I still have shares in DIGS (CG -2%) and WJG (CG 17%).
Blanketstacker
26 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM To play Devil's advocate, I think the NAV here is highly subjective. The properties are valued as being in multiple domestic occupation, so another possible threat is that if their use is changed, say to office accommodation, the value could half. (But I should say I still think this should come good in the long run!)
Chucko63
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM I have traded this a lot and still hold a lot! However, at this price, I see the risk reward s being aligned with “time in the market”, and avoiding quick gains.The comment on the low vote for the Director is very informative and possibly helps to answer the question “if DIGS and UTG can make the student model work, then why not ESP”. I have been constantly struggling with this, but if indeed this issue is now largely behind them, I see a possible 20 to 25% total return by end of 2019 with limited downside. If we get to 100p, still being a discount of a few percent, then the total return is nudging 30%.All to play for, even in a boring stock like this! All this supposes no existential threat to the student accommodation market. For example distance learning or lunatic Brexit outcome. (or others - don’t be shy if you can think of some!)
sharegardener
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM Thanks Blanket, I hadnt spotted that connection! Failure of due diligence on my part.Rhigos - Weeding, pruning of diseased bits and selecting new seedlings - all important for eventual yield! I'm wary of some AIM co's but like smaller caps in general. I also lean towards 'time in the market' but there's no point holding duds. With recent volatility, getting in on a low dip and then getting out fast on the next upspike can give quick gains but my timing is never brilliantSGSG
Blanketstacker
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM Hi sharegardenerI for one voted against Alston. He is a partner at REVCAP, who have had dealings with ESP. He should NOT be playing this double role. The problems here have really stemmed from the fact that there were too many such connections amongst the directors, including deals to maintain and service properties. Too many conflicts of interest! Hopefully this is now at an end.
Blanketstacker
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM If the board can be trusted, this should be up around 100 again in late 2019. The dividend will be permanently 're-based' to give a yield of 5%. I am underwater here, but will continue to hold for the future. As it stands it could be a decent 'buy'. However we remain dependent on the honesty of management.
Rhigos
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM sharegardener,I agree with you recovery will not be quick. Your nickname reminds me I should probably do some share weeding. I think I can probably get better returns by selling all my ESP shares (1st bought Nov 2015) and buying into a company with faster growth prospects. I am attracted to several AIM 100 companies. The AIM 100 index is currently outperforming the FTSE 350. In the last 2 years FTSE 350 +19%, AIM 100 +57%.
sharegardener
25 Apr 2018
Re: Trading Update and AGM The board has had a lot of disruption with CEO being fired (CFO fired before that as well) and sadly Brenda Dean's recent death. (R4 did an obit. about her rise as a Trade Unionist in SOGAT)Sept 2019 they will have approx 10K beds operational and the plans to reduce costs by bringing FM contracts in house as well as extending Hello Student coverage should turn things round. It wont be quick but the management team, especially Lynne Fennah look like they can pull it off imho.One odd feature on the votes: only 58% for vs 42% against re-electing Stephen Alston whereas all other directors voted through on over 90%.SG
shareordie
25 Apr 2018
Trading Update and AGM Looks like they are making good progress on margins and occupancy seems to be above last year.I'm happy with the trading statement.
shareordie
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results This Long term insentive plan looks a bit suspect, determined on the 24th July just after the explosion in share price ,bod get awarded a massive LTIP award and a few months later the share price collapses,that seems very convenient! Can't find how they worked out the ltip but I take it share price is one of the insentives .
shareordie
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results Managed to find some useful figures,(not on RNS)Profit before tax=£20,750,000Minus property valuation increase =£15,836,000=£4,914,000And there is a £1,122,000 property disposal to come off that alsoSo £3,792,000 profit from the rental business with disposal and valuation gain striped out.Which as you say needs to be worked on.I do have other property holdings but most of them put the figures you need in the RNS and don't make you scroll to page 74 of the report to find what you need.
shareordie
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results The dividend Target is 5p for 2018 not 6.5p and at the price I paid I am happy at that as long as it is covered by 2019 as said in report.As you have pionted out it looks like adminstration costs need to be added to other costs before we get to the profit of the rental business,but I've been shopping so haven't managed to read the Annual report just the RNS which seems to be a bit thin on figures you want and need.
TX2
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results In simple terms to get the 6.5p divi per share which was the original target I think paid for by net cash earnings Empiric has to have around £40m net rental income after overheads are deducted from gross rental income.As well as administrative costs which are basically central overheads,you need to deduct costs of running the student rooms & finance costs.These latter two costs are rather larger.There is still a long way to go.I don't think the downside risk is huge but the discount to book NAV is presently fully justified as I doubt if any buyer would pay "book value" for assets that were not earning a viable return.Hopefully Empiric can reach its targets,in which case a share price recovery would be justified but it is a hope not a certainty at the moment.
smilingmickey1
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results Hi Shareordie,TX2 summation is correct. The profit reported includes upward movements of property values (which is a non cash item). So Empiric can report a profit, whilst an examination of the books will tell you there has been a cash outflow, as the level of divi paid has exceeded the cash generated from the operation of the student letting business for the last 12 months.The statement includes the comment that a 5p dividend for this year is not covered by cash income, but in 2019 they expect there to be enought cash generated to cover a 5p divi.Most shareholders bought this share for its dividend, so any future cut will not be appreciated (as we saw, with the sharp drop in the share price when the divi was suspended shortly after the Company raised more cash.) The previous CEO recently fell on his sword because the business has not been generating enough cash to cover the divi payments.Obviously for an income seeker the current % div is attractive, but there is always the risk that this level cannot be maintained. IHMO a share with some recovery potential depending upon whether the new CEO can take better care of the business than his predecessor.SM
shareordie
21 Mar 2018
Re: Results Targeted rent income is £72 million and targeted administration is £10 million for 18/19 or am I missing something?Operating margin 57% for 17Targeting 70% margin 19
