figaro and big jock
22 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. I am sanguine in relation to student numbers coming to the UK because they want to come here and study and are, as a group, important contributors to the economy. Mrs May as home secretary could do nothing with the 56% non European immigrants as they are needed by the UK economy, part of which is education.Should Mrs May be the next prime minister, she may, after brexit, be in a position to do something with the remaining 44% but as we learn on an almost daily basis from business leaders a significant number are employed in the UK e.g. almost 300,000 French in London who work directly or indirectly within the UK economy, paying tax, vat and all the other hidden taxes on fuel, tobacco and air travel.Students want to come to the UK because of the standard of education and english is pretty much a universal language either as a first or second.DYORRegards to all
Eadwig
22 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. The fat lady hasn't started singing just yet.There is another scenario - and if it came about, I think we'd see ESP's share price leap (which isn't saying a lot with ESP, but you know what I mean).That would be some sort of U-turn on this aspect of the manifesto prior to the election. I'm hearing reports this may already be happening in the care sector (another candidate for tens of thousands of those immigrant jobs p.a. In fact HMG purposely did recruitment drives in place like the Philippines in the past.I've never know a Prime Minister in my lifetime U-turn so much as Mrs May. So it isn't something that can be ruled out, despite how unusual a U-turn on a manifesto pledge might be prior to an election. It looks like she may be about to U-turn on some aspects of the care section of the manifesto.Even so, if student numbers were removed from the migration cap, the cost of visas and the tax on employees to recruit foreign graduates, and the minimum wage at which they must start employment (£41k in some quite typical cases) will no doubt remain as disincentives. Although the government states they are competitive. I think that is a straight-forward lie, but I can't say I've done a study of it, it just sounds ridiculous (outside of investment banking).We also have some of the highest airport taxes that all add to the cost of parents coming to see where their precious off-spring will be living and studying, as well as students going home for holidays etc. In fact the amount squeezed out of every single foreign student is little short or rapine. Don't forget they pay typically 33-50% more for fees also, so subsidise British born students too.The more you talk through it, the less sense the whole policy makes. Or is it just me? Does anyone think differently (putting aside our investments for a moment)?
Eadwig
22 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. The first point to make is that no one ever made any money panicking. So, I'm not advocating dumping ESP and similar stocks right at this moment. Equally, I'm no longer recommending them as a ten year hold that can hardly go wrong. I think its best to be aware of the threats though, and I didn't even know there was one until AFTER the Brexit vote, it never occurred to me students were counted as immigrants in that figure of 330,000 released just before the referendum that probably swung it, all else being equal. I must admit the amount of moaning from locals about 'too much student accommodation' in places like York, which had a strong Remain vote, has surprised me and must be part of what is driving the thinking here. (Much prefer to leave areas half-derelict, presumably).Remember also that:a) including the student numbers is in the manifestob) it appears to be part of some international convention on immigration numbers - something I only stumbled across in the last few days. I can only assume it is more appropriate to apply the convention in some places than it is in countries like the UK. Even so, I'm amazed that the promise about this detail of figures has been incorporated, making it harder to fudge them as you suggest will be done. Someone is holding May's toes to the fire, I reckon.The other side of the coin is that I can't believe students already in place wont be able to finish their current course, so there is no immediate need for panic, even if there is now more purpose built accommodation (built, under construction or planned) than will be needed in, say, 5 years time. (I don't know if that is the case, but have suspected the figure must be being reached for a while given the amount of building that has gone on).The move towards more apprenticeships and vocational studies may still require ESP's type of accommodation at various colleges. The 'day release' model (that I did in my apprenticeship) has been largely discredited in modern times with periods of full time study recommended instead. This means the dropping number of UK applicants for university may not reflect completely in the accommodation requirements.The next big thing is likely to be 'build-to-let', in which case ESP should be able to unload a number of properties (or land where current planning permission may need minimal tweaking) at competitive prices. The latest build-to-lets are designed among almost exactly the same lines as premium student accommodation, with many utilities and services supplied and included in the rent. I doubt it would be wise for ESP to try and enter that section of the market also, in fact their articles probably prevent from doing so.That's assuming the same pressure remains on housing demand as there has been for a couple of decades in the face of immigration numbers being cut. Average housing prices continue to fall since the Brexit vote.The first move of a major University to open a faculty in an EU country could be the trigger point for concluding it is time to sell. Unfortunately, ESP are unlikely to be involved in accommodation requirements outside the UK.
Blanketstacker
22 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. Once the election is past the Conservatives will constantly revise the immigration criteria to make it look as though they are making progress in reducing numbers. One of the first things they will do is remove students from the figures, probably on the pretext that this was the historical situation. No flap yet!
Eadwig
22 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. Ramases II, "Will it ever happen?"It is true to say that most universities have reacted very calmly so far. Of course, the election isn't over yet and serious leaders of the top universities are unlikely to make statements assuming the election result is already known. If there is anyone reading this who thinks there is any chance that Mrs May will not win the election, please do speak up. I'm betting there isn't anyone.Its in the manifesto, it didn't have to be, and look what happened to the chancellor when he tried to ignore a manifesto pledge in the last budget. Many think he'll be going within hours of the election results returning Mrs May.The government says it will continue to count students in the net immigration figures, and that those figure will be reduced from 275,000-325,000 p,a to tens of thousands.In 2014/15 there were 437,000 foreign students in the UK and that figure probably doesn't allow for EU students, although they're a single figure percentage of the whole. The above figure is 19% of the student body, supposedly. Foreign students make up 29% in other reports I've read. I think it depends if you are counting post grads also, or including medical students etc.Assuming they are allowed priority, the fact is, just keeping the NHS at current standards will require them to take a large share of the 'tens of thousands'. That means less than 100,000 p.a. by the way, which was Cameron's pledge. Maybe they wont, and this will be the Tory message to UK's heartland. "You can't have your NHS AND low immigration". Anyway, you do the math, as they say in USA, whose faculties must be falling over themselves in glee after this post-Trump reprieve, although anecdotal evidence suggests Canada is the likely main beneficiary.[link]
nk1999
21 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. Good spot Eadwig.My main concern with Empiric is/was that it trades at a premium to NAV, while the likes of British Land trade at approx 30% discount.I understand th belief is that commercial property may be hit harder by Brexit, but 10% premium for Empiric vs 30% discount for BLND (arguably a better managed company and likely bid candidate as well) has made me switch from Empiric to British Land last week.nk
Ramases II
21 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. Will it ever happen?From the BBC.....Finally, visa requirements for students will be tougher and they will be expected to leave the country after their course is finished, unless they meet higher requirements for them to work in the UK. There was no detail about what those requirements might be.But migration experts point out that the government has already cracked down in this area and reducing student numbers further would be difficult. Tough talk on immigration (again) to secure UKIP voters, probably little will change in reality.
Eadwig
20 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed Sounds like a reasonable approach, off the lip. Vanguard are just moving into the UK market, and their funds may be as cheap, or slightly cheaper than Fidelity from what they are saying. Not enough difference to bother changing, by the sound of it.Watch out for them, anyway. As the second biggest sset management company in the world, I'm sure they'll be making a splash with advertising etc to announce their arrival. If they're competing on price, and it sounds like that is their intention, then their costs will be up front and center in the ads, no doubt.
Hardboy
19 May 2017
Re: Major Bad News. Well spotted Eadwig. I haven't had chance to look in detail at it yet; but that is bad news. Bad enough to throw in the towel I think
PJ Foster
19 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed iii charges nothing to hold funds. Once you've paid the £20 a quarter (which acts as credit for trade commission) you can hold what you want in trading account and ISA.Cheers,
off the lip 2010
19 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed My holdings with HL are almost entirely shares, ETF, bonds and investments trusts which are free with HL. I hold the majority of my Funds with Fidelity because they only charge 0.35%. If anybody knows of a cheaper place to hold funds I would like to know I think finding one provider who is cheap for funds and shares is unlikely, so I decided to treat them separately
Eadwig
19 May 2017
Major Bad News. The Tories have produced a manifesto stating maximum net immigration in the tens of thousands per year only. They have confirmed today that the number of foreign students, including the small number from the EU, will be INCLUDED in those figures.This is the doomsday scenario that I have posted about so often in the last year and hoped they would not be stupid enough to commit to.In the absence of a functioning opposition and with a government already badly damaged by trying to ignore a manifesto pledge, this is the end of growth in the UK educational sector and those companies supporting it, as well as our world class research and development sector and any pretence that the NHS provides a world class service.I'm assuming existing students will probably be allowed to finish their courses, which will mean the affects will feed in slowly as numbers fall each year as less student visas are granted and fees for UK students are forced up as a result, and natural wastage in world class researchers in the sciences will occur over a period as PhDs come to an end and their lecturing slots are filled by second and third class British-only applicants. Top British talent will be forced to 'emigrate' to work on world class, cutting edge projects.Some universities and companies have contingency plans to move departments abroad, but I'm not sure how that will help ESP, for example. I don't know the figures, but I suspect that we may already be into a glut of student accommodation, especially when taking into account forward plans.Fortunately, I can see a way out for ESP. They need to scrap the 2025 plan and return to their original niche, high-end offering. It will be a tougher sell, but nothing like as bad as trying to service a mass customer base that is likely to contract by 20-30% or so over the next 5 years. They should also start thinking about converting suitable properties to 'build-to-let' style semi-communal living with services provided as part of the rent.They also need to quickly identify those towns that are likely to lose universities, perhaps entirely. Those properties need to be sold ASAP. I suspect Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland may do their best to circumvent the rules as far as possible in the hope of keeping their education sector alive long enough for it to be revived at some future point. ESP should move Edinburgh and St Andrews, Cardiff and Glasgow up their priority list.I bet Oxford, Cambridge and London will do the same (although Oxford and Cambridge will be among the first to open campuses abroad, if their plans weren't just a bluff that has now been called). ESP need a strategy to build in these key areas also. I'm afraid places like Stoke and Falmouth are no longer going to cut it. Others too. A major review of strategy is required.Its very, very disappointing from an investment view point. I thought UK property and UK education (unbelievable growth and returns backed by a truly world class product with growing demand and a play on global population growth and the knowledge economy all rolled into one unbeatable package), was a conjunction made in investor heaven. I doubt we'll ever see the likes of its potential again. The devastation it will do to the UK as a world class economy is more than disappointing. It's heartbreaking and verging on criminal, if not treason, in my opinion. What's the betting some Tory group gets children below the age of 18 an exemption so that Winchester and Eton don't take the same hit?Call me cynical, if you like. I am. Extremely. But it doesn't begin to match my anger at the sheer stupidity and lack of foresight being displayed.I stopped adding to ESP post-Brexit when Theresa May looked like she might be going as hard line as possible on students after her home office stint and being responsible for the current student visa rules.I'm now looking to ESP to come up with a revised strategy for the future, and quickly, otherwise I shal
PJ Foster
19 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed Hi Eadwig,I guess that which ever provider you go for, there are always going to be bit's you'd like to improve. Personally, I'm quite happy with all the options available with iii and a significant part of my wad is now held with them. I also have investments held with Fidelity and Computershare. As I sell investments held by Fidelity, I transfer the value to iii and re-invest there. Computershare is the nominated broker/administrator(don't know the correct term) for a bunch of VCT's I hold - so I'm not going to change that. I had a look at the fees link for HL that 'off the lip' provided. The fees are more complex than I realised! Yes, there's no fee for shares in the trading account. But there are fees (0.45%) for ISA and SIPP - However they are capped at £45 and £200 respectively (which I'd hit). Then the 0.45% charge is applied to funds, although that is dropped to lower levels for holdings over 250k. As most of my investments are not funds, I've only just over 92k that would attract that - so £415 a year. So with HL, my annual charges would be £660 a year + trading costs. With iii it's £80 (ISA & Trading acct) + £96 (SIPP) and the £80 acts as credit for trades. So total is £176 a year + trading costs. The fact that trading funds is free at HL would save me very little, as I have three funds, which have been bought once and I've never added to. HL clearly want to promote fund trading and encourage investors to hold as much as possible. The money they loose on offering free trading is peanuts compared to the ongoing cost of holding them with HL.Cheers,
Eadwig
19 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed Bamboozled,I've somehow managed to get into this discussion on about three boards - even though I'm not contemplating changing provider - unless an obviously better service for about the same cost to me hoves into view.The only way that is going to happen is by reading an article like the one your referred to, where someone has basically been paid to do the research on the different providers, and lays it all out in a table for comparison (Hmm! Maybe there's an online 'switch' site?). No doubt Which Magazine or someone does a study every year or so. Its way too much to research for yourself, as you say, especially as the devil is always going to be in the detail when it comes to your own specific circumstances.For example, mine are Trading account slowly being transferred into an ISA, SIPP and intend to add a Junior ISA in future. MY SIPP is much smaller than may trading account/ISA (which is probably unusual). I do around 5-15 trades a month, mostly in stocks, but around 25% of my portfolio is in funds, which I use to diversify my portfolio). I rely on limit orders a lot, and invest abroad so low fx spreads are important to me (none of this $2.75% tourist rate business that some financial institutions try on!).On my wish list is
) everything ii currently offers me with a couple of minor tweaks, PLUS1a) The ability to buy on international markets using limit orders which don't expire after 24 hours. 90 days max. like the UK order types would be fine. (ii used to offer this).1b) The ability to set a limit order while that international market is open. ii currently force you to 'buy at best' at those times, limit orders have to be placed for the next day while the market is closed.2a) The ability to hold my cash in GBP, Euros or US Dollars (and any other currency would be a bonus) and be able to transfer between them whenever I choose at that day's live (low/business) rate. (Paypal manage this ok with no problem. The rate isn't as good as ii's). 2b) When I make an order I should be able to name which currency account I want the money to come from/go into in the same way I currently have to name which of my accounts I'm dealing in.3) the ability to take part in SCRIP scheme if one is on offer by the company that is paying me dividends. Proxy voting too, would be nice, but I don't really care.4) Better access to European exchanges.5) Access to Hong Kong, Canadian and Australian exchanges.Vaqnguard are just about to enter the UK market, and they are talking about their typical fund charge being around 0.3% per year. So HL are going to have some competition ... possibly anyway. I haven't looked into details.I'm assuming HL charge 0.45% of your portfolio and that comes after you've already paid for charges on the individual fund you hold. they tend to be deducted from the NAV in some way or other, and entry charges are usually built into the spread when you buy.They used to share profits/commission with whoever their funds were bought through, E.g. ii, HL or whoever, and I think both of the latter repaid any commission they received. ii still say they do, but have been going through a process of updating funds to a new format where no commission is received. I assume HL are also doing this, because its part of new regulations, rather than a marketing ploy.0.45% would be an extremely hefty charge, although until 'off the lip's' last post I'd assumed it was on equities too. A poster on another board appeared to say it was across their whole portfolio and no one else has made the distinction. I'll look at the link s/he's provided when I have time. Like I say, I'm reasonably happy with ii. I have had a few problems with them recently, but I'm not entirely sure that I wasn't at fault myself. The latest was an IPO where I was given 15% of what i had asked for, when my understanding is that I should have got 75%. I can't be bothered to chase it up.
bamboozled
18 May 2017
Re: Another RNS ii missed Eadwig:Can't find the comparison for all providers,think it was on newspaper not online. Some of the funds with HL are very cheap(in terms of annual charge) including some of the trackers.Think you may have to sit down and go through each website provider and work out with the amount you have to invest which is the best deal,although gets complicated if you have SIPP,dealing account and ISA accounts! Most seem to offer a discount if dealing in volume,it may be a question of annual charges?
