Thistle 1971
19 Feb 2017
Final results webinar Did anyone else watch this on Friday? Paul F seems to know his audience, although a bit flippant he answered most of the questions and painted a story of internal failure which he believed could easily be rectified. Price movement seems to reflect his optimism DYOR
raintown
03 Feb 2017
investor conference call I listened to this (now not available as it had a 7-day expiry) and thoughts are:1 - new CEO stopped short (just) of openly criticising outgoing CEO. 2 - quite clearly cultural issues and lack of investment in people and infrastructure (IT was mentioned)3 - new CEO says its a fundamentally sound business with self-help on basics being needed4 - no comment (that I can recall at least) on balance sheet. If trading slips I'm not sure how much headroom they have although hinted at disposals / structuring which should benefitI own some stock, got in after the second profits warning last year, and therefore want to believe that this is a long play upside. With a bit of tidying up and TLC has the potential to show decent upside over 2-3 years. New(ish) Chair has the experience to deliver. Not 100% sure about new CEO track record (Coates and L&B did not obviously thrive under him) but certainly talked a lot of sense.
nk1999
26 Jan 2017
Jefferies From ADVFN:"Jefferies downgraded its rating on Essentra to 'hold' as the cigarette filters and plastic packaging manufacturer's "self inflicted wounds" need time to repair.The profit warning on 22 January outlined perfectly that new chief executive Paul Forman "has a sizeable job on his hands"."The group needs to undergo significant change and while there is recovery potential, remedial work is needed, the recovery will take time to come through and will come from a lower-than-expected starting point."Forman has outlined the areas of the group that need major work to repair and drive improvement."There is much work to do to get the group back to full health, and it will take time for the recovery to come through in earnest," Jefferies said."A fundamental change in culture is needed, but most the issues faced are self-inflicted, not structural in nature."Analysts cut their full year PBT and EPS forecasts by 4%, but for the next two years take a more cautious view of the HPCP recovery and lower margin assumptions compared to other analysts and so raised their target to 450p from 445p "to reflect recovery multiples". "
nk1999
25 Jan 2017
Citi view From ADVFN:"Citigroup downgraded Essentra to 'neutral' from 'buy' and cut the price target to 430p from 500p following the company's third profit warning in the space of a year on Monday.The maker of cigarette filters and plastic packaging cautioned that it expects profit to be below expectations due to operational issues at its health and personal care packaging unit.For the 2016 calendar year, it expects operating profit to be at the bottom of or modestly below its previous guidance of £137m-£142m. The company said that due to continuing operational issues in the Health & Personal Care Packaging unit, there was a further "significant" decline in revenue and profitability during the last two months of 2016, and there is no expectation of a near-term improvement in 2017.Citigroup cut its earnings per share forecast for FY16 by 4%, for FY17 by 22% and FY18 by 21% as it incorporates further margin erosion. The bank now expects profit to drop to £12.9m in the second half of 2016 from £22.1m in the first half.Citi said that in FY17, further measures will need to be taken to stabilise costs at underperforming sites and improve service levels to re-ignite sales. While these measures are being taken, it expects H&PC margins will remain depressed, declining to 6.5% in FY17 from 13.6% in FY15.""Following successive earnings downgrades in 2016, the shares are trading at a steep valuation discount to both historic averages and the broader FTSE 250."Despite the valuation support, Essentra is experiencing operational challenges, which we assume will limit earnings recovery in FY17e. We do not expect near-term catalysts to emerge until the company re-defines its strategic direction under new CEO, Paul Forman, who began 1 January 2017."
Meanbugger
24 Jan 2017
Re: Long @ 397 I tucked into some more at £4. The pharma packaging business looks to be in a mess with too rapid integration causing all sorts of problems. The sale of Porous materials will complete fairly shortly. The strategic review is bound to either identify divisions for sale or putting the whole group up for sale. I'll be amazed if this hasn't been gobbled up by a big industrial conglomerate like Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year.
Thistle 1971
23 Jan 2017
Re: Long @ 397 Well the 3rd one did come but not catastrophic !
Thistle 1971
30 Nov 2016
Long @ 397 Hoping the 3rd one never comes !! Listened to webcast and numbers seem to be suggesting weighted to next year....... it's a gamble but I believe upside is greater than down.DYOR
LK Hyman
21 Nov 2016
Re: another profit warning.. Sambram,Standard Life must be feeling a bit sick.LKH on the flybridge directors' sales in the past year provided a clue to this profit warning
Shotry
17 Aug 2016
Re: Long from 476 Still like the look of this, but have closed out. 200 pip drop on the DAX so far this morning with FTSE starting to look weak. Considering the possiblity of a sell off in equities today/tomorrow and booking profits. Took 10 and 27p profit on the 2 positions respectively.
Hawk Eye32
15 Aug 2016
Re: Long from 476 Shotry, you could be right with support at 488 the rally in July although I'm prepared to wait to seeifthere is a breakout. Have they gone ex div yet?
Shotry
11 Aug 2016
Re: Long from 476 I've added to my ESNT position at 488. A close above 492 would look bullish to me.
Shotry
04 Aug 2016
Long from 476 That's after a spread of 3. Looks like a good risk reward from here. Clear support at around 466. If that fails I have 458 and 424 as potential supports. But I'll drop it quickly if 466 does fail. Not looking to accumulate it, just a quick trade.
Meanbugger
21 Jul 2016
Re: Long opportunity I am back in profit although I should have bought more at the lower levels. I think TX2 you are being slightly harsh. Essentra is a big beneficiary of lower sterling. Institutions and Warren Buffett for that matter love long term growth situations like this where they buy and hold. Short term setbacks are buying opportunities for the long term. I was too early tucking in to maximise my profit but I still think they are heading for £7 where I'll say thank you and find another trading opportunity.
nk1999
15 Jun 2016
Deutsche From Citywire:"Essentra share price fall ‘overdone’ Plastic products manufacturer Essentra (ESNT) has seen a share price drop after a results miss but it is overdone.Deutsche Bank analyst Sylvia Foteva retained her ‘buy’ recommendation but reduced the target price from 860p to 635p. The shares were trading at 556p yesterday, down 32.3% since Wednesday’s profit warning.‘Essentra guided to £155-165 million of earnings in 2016 with c.£90 million in H2 implying £65-75 million in H1. Our H1 forecast at £71 million is at the middle of the range but we have taken a slightly more cautious view on the H2 improvement - £85 million despite the cost savings communicated on the conference call,’ she said.‘We continue to believe that health and personal care (HPC) packaging can be a successful business and that there is scope for consolidation in the area even if any large deals in the HPC and elsewhere are increasingly unlikely in the near future. In our view, the stock is down by more than the downgrade because 1) visibility has proven to be less than expected even at the tender-driven filters and HPC businesses and 2) integration issues put a question mark on how the market will take future sizeable deals.’"
MJS1234
13 Jun 2016
Re: Brokers saying buy Hi LKHThanks for the comments.Decided to jump ship on this one and the other shares I own this morning.Thought I'm happy where I am and quite like the certainty, so will revisit after the Brexit voteGLTAMJS
