blouson_blouse
12 Sep 2018
2017 results I agree. With the full year skewed disproportionately to H2’s performance there is clearly risk that they don’t meet their expectations and hit “market expectations†( which I always find an annoying phrase- why not just say the number/range ?) . But if they do, and if they are able to report with their next trading statement further positive progress on the restructuring ( and consequent cost reductions) then profits and shares should rise. Costs are rising not just cos of oil price but fall in sterling- which has weakened even further . A bit early to buy with confidence because there are so many macro and micro unknowns. But the management seems to have done OK in view of all the head winds so deserve the benefit of the doubt IMO. expected EPS around 10-11p for the coming few years and a field of around 6% makes last nights price a reasonable floor- absent bad news If the level of debt rises so would the risk but the yield and progress justifies holding for now even tho the shares are likely to stay pretty range bound without any corporate activity.
In_the_dark_yet_again
12 Sep 2018
2017 results LSE:EPWN Latest Interim results. [[link] A sigh of relief all around I think. Given the change of circumstance since last year, these results could have been much uglier - they were never going to be pretty. No one ever likes a dividend cut but I can’t really argue this one and even if the final also takes a 24% hit I can still live with it as long as there’s subsequently forward progress from this new base. The loss of your biggest customer is always going to hurt and the substantial rise in the oil price, a key factor affecting their raw material cost, wasn’t going to help either. Not easy to pass on those increased costs immediately. All in all I’m relieved… looks like the market agrees with me. Can’t buy any more yet, will wait until the final results next year, waiting to see whether they really have adjusted to the new circumstances. Although these numbers could flush out a bidder hoping to strike before the market decides all is OK and it’s dirt cheap here (but too risky for me to take the chance) I’m sitting tight subject to it not falling through my stop. Regards, ITDYA
Gunnergadin
22 Aug 2018
Value Got burnt by this one last year. Still not sure if there is enough today to convince me to get back in.
blouson blouse
11 Apr 2018
Results Only read the summary but I am pleasantly surprised at the absence of further bad news and the various indications of confidence in their strategy. That may of course be misplaced but as they are ¼ of the way through the current year and feel they can state a new and progressive dividend policy which yields almost 8.5% I tentatively take that as encouraging.If - and it’s a big if- the management show over the coming year that they really are in control of what they can deliver then the yield will attract supporters and probably compress significantly. I am holding for blended capital and income over the medium term and expect the market to get greater insight from the analyst call.Not sure upside is worth the risk but hoping risk reduces over coming 6 month
blouson blouse
21 Feb 2018
where next ? HOLD @88.5 I doubt the SP will do much over the coming 12 months, so holders are presumably relying on the very good yield. the issue is whether or not it will be cut.After the recent trading statement and it's reference to "selective acquisitions" my take is that the Board must expect to continue the dividend at the current yield. Normally they wouldn't pay for an acquisition if that would require the dividend to be cut ! That doesn't mean they won't mess up and have to cut it but I suspect that the yield will be safe and support the price around this sort of level ( perhaps up to the low 100's) whilst their strategic & operational improvements are either proven to work 9 and drive longer term value) or not.So despite the good recovery since the lows some months back this still seems to be a reasonable hold to me for those taking a 2 year plus view AND wanting yield.
stratty
19 Oct 2017
Re: sold divi day tomorrow ?
glasgowboy
18 Oct 2017
sold Sold my small holding better opportunities elsewhere time will time if it was wise.Good luck to all -I'm out !!
BlackPrince
17 Oct 2017
Re: Valuation Some share buying by the directors would help.Do Panmore still rate these as worth £1.85?
schwee
20 Sep 2017
Re: Valuation I always despair when a company bangs on about exchange rates as an excuse. After all they are in the risk business, and it is a choice they have made to source from overseas rather than locally.And I suspect the current small bounce is probably down to the mini revival in the pound.I am still to be convinced that management have a firm grip on the business, and your point about lack of director buying is well taken.
Greyinvestor
18 Sep 2017
Valuation I'm a bit embarassed to admit that I've sold my EPWN for a modest profit. I'm a bit concerned that there is no sign of the management buying in, and the price has risen in advance of the dividend. I think that the forecasts are still too optimistic. Maybe I'll be back some time......
Div Hunter
13 Sep 2017
Re: EPWN results Quite. I'll stick around for the time being for the dividend. Not a great deal of confidence in the long term as I don't trust the management not to do the dirty on the shareholders. Costs up, outlook below expectations but dividend up, not a good long term formula. Paying out over £3M in interim dividends of which Kennedy will get a fair chunk, probably enough to cover his buying of & investing in Entu. We may as well have bought it & cut the dividend in the long term interest. But for now I'll take my cut, see how long they can hold it together.
Greyinvestor
13 Sep 2017
Earnings forecasts Looking more at the earnings calculations, it might be safer to think about EPS running at around 8 to 9 pence this year and next. My reasoning is that the exceptionals in each year aren't actually that exceptional. You will always have bad debts and you will always have reorganisation in a market like this.I don't like the management suggesting that they could gear the company up further. It's too risky and is likely to destroy value. They should reduce gearing.I would like to see directors buying shares too.
Greyinvestor
13 Sep 2017
EPWN results I'm travelling at the moment, so will just pop in a few comments, all my opinions only.I'd be looking for earnings of maybe 12p this year and 9p next year, which is well below current forecasts.The divi is being increased slightly, for now. Cover will be getting thin next year. 10% of the revenue has probably gone up in smoke, but nothing is certain. About £4m of debtors has gone for good.Costs are rising and are not being passed on yet.We are still in quite a buoyant building market, so things could get a fair bit worse.It's up to you what you do. I'm sitting tight.
Div Hunter
12 Sep 2017
Re: Market news If it wasn't Brexit there'd be some other excuse, it's the nature of this sector, boom & bust.
Div Hunter
12 Sep 2017
Re: Update this morning It's a tangled web. Entu has been bought by Latium, owned by Brian Kennedy, former owner of Entu, who also owns 14% of the shares in Epwin. He's got a good deal, hopefully it's in his interests to see that Epwin do ok out of it but who knows. Let's hope the merry-go-round continues a while longer with a steady share price & regular decent divi's, but I won't be taking my eyes of this share & I can't say I'll be here longterm. Learn from the directors/owners, take the money & run when the time is right.
