Thomas Tallis
05 Nov 2015
Contracts in Asia When I read this - "Appointment of Non-Executive Directors15 January 2014...Mr Patel, aged 45, is a commercial consultant who advises on and negotiates contracts for companies with innovative environmental technologies for use in Asia."[link] words caught my eye - "advises on and negotiates contracts ... Asia"I thofhd ‎ ′ç±»ßö€©®•“ ”°—¬but it didn't. How sad.
Thomas Tallis
04 Nov 2015
China. RNS announcement from 23 June 2014 -"Preliminary Results for the year ended 31 December 2013...Successful trade exhibitionso Resource Efficiency & Waste Management Solutions 2013 Exhibition at the NECo 2013 Plastics Recycling Conference in New Orleanso Chinaplas 2013 in Guangzhou..." - end of extract.what criteria have they judged the China exhibition to have been a success?Successful my a*** - to quote Jim Royle.On another point - when will we get an RNS about a director buying shares? This issue has been raised prevously on this board.The AGM statement ends with ""I believe that there are some exciting opportunities before ERT ..." - will he get excited enough to buy shares?With the share price at 0.175p, is all of the risk priced in or do they have further to drop?
Thomas Tallis
01 Nov 2015
Never sell cheap - "Going concern" Many thanks to Bidmoll for this - "An anecdote gives a clue to the timing. LC was on the way home feeling depressed about having to turn the Chinese down but he watched the Steve Jobs film on the plane and was heartened by the Jobs comment about never selling his product cheaply."Never sell too cheaply - that is fine when you have a brand name, several USPs and a product that people get excited about because of its features, but for a product like flat sheet?As we know, there is a plant in south Wales knocking out flat sheet made from recycled plastic. Suppose we get a licensee to set up a PIM plant in the UK - could they sell at a higher price?Do you think potential customers are going to compare the two products, say "Well, they are both made from recycled plastic, they are both tough and durable but this one was made using the PIM process. I'm happy to pay a higher price because this flat sheet was made using the PIM process."?I say that if the things were going to be sold at a profit - sell them". A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush. If you later judge that the market can bear a higher price then you can put the price up.Don't forget that the accounts had a note on "Going concern".Money coming in from a Chinese producer would have been useful. Without it, we might not last beyond the short term - but never sell too cheaply.Perhaps I need to start wearing my rose tinted specs to see the good news aspect.OK, I am just the board buffoon and what do I know, so let's say I am wrong, and on this board, I am usually told that I am wrong. (Please remember that it is possible likely that other factors as well as the price were pertinent, we do not know, so this is all just waffle, guesswork and moaning out loud.)Let's assume that, in the long term, it turns out to be in our best interests that the deal didn't go ahead, but I still want to know how it gets through "advanced discussions", "approval of business plans" and as far as "in the hands of lawyers" (presumably incuring fees!) before a last minute warning throws a spanner in the works. How much did it cost ERT to push the talks that far? Yes, there will, I presume, have been translation and interpreting costs, but that money had to be spent.As I said - "suppose those lawyers had acted quicker than lawyers usually do, and got the documents signed before that warning came in - it would be a done deal!"At what stage in these sort of negotiations, does "due diligence" come into play?To be fair, it must be difficult to work out a deal in China - the distance and the language barrier make it a lot tougher than working out a deal closer to home so please do not take my words as being meant to be harshly critical of the ERT board. I am merely pondering, and my questions are the result of getting scant information. The ERT board are people who are well regarded in the industry and who will have acted totally professionally at all times, please see my note below about my posts."Working out a deal closer to home" - how many UK licencees do we have?For anyone who has never read my posts - please do not take my whinging as criticism of the ERT board. It isn't easy to break into an established industry with a new product Yes, I have questions for them about how things have gone, but my posts are mainly intended to provide a bit of balance to the posts from the rose-tinted specs crowd who never liked any mention of negative, but valid, points. It has been a while since we heard from them, they seem to have given up posting.
nipper22
31 Oct 2015
Not dead in the water Many thanks Bidmoll,you are voted up for your comprehensive account of the AGM. Anyone can see that there are positive elements going forward, should they choose to. It may take a couple more years before we see good income being received but,as our licensees build up production, the revenues should increase, hopefully, along with the share price! I do not lament the resignations from the board, however much their intentions were good, they were never able to make full use of the vast potential that the company has . Thank god for LC,without him I don't think Enrt would exist today.He MUST recruit a couple of people who are of the same ilk as he.Very experienced and driven by the imperative urge to put the company into the Premier league in the Plastics Industry. GLA.
Thomas Tallis
31 Oct 2015
Re: Still too late for me. Please note, just in case it giives the wrong impression - I was typing my last post as Bidmoll was posting his latest one.I posted mine without reading his - mine is not a reply to his second post, it was an appendix to my own.
Thomas Tallis
31 Oct 2015
Still too late for me. I said "... there could be more to it than just the issue over the price, we don't know, so that is another reason to regard my post as mere waffle."Even if there was more to it than their plan to sell too cheaply, surely, after advanced discussions, approval of the business plan and handing it over to the lawyers, it was a bit late to have a re-think.I'm sure that somewhere in the various AGM Statements, Interims and Final Results, they use the phrase due diligence.Yep, here it is in thsi AGM Statement - "an alternative business model has now been identified and, subject to completion of due diligence approved by the board and is in the process of being further developed."Let's hope they iron out every detail before they spend money on lawyers fees.Please note that, other than where I have quoted from company announcements, my comments are not based on information supplied by the company. My views are just guesswork, intuition and the expression of opinion and personal feelings, and, other than where I have quoted from company announcements, nothing, should be taken as a statement of fact
Bidmoll
31 Oct 2015
Re: AGM LC talked in detail about the Colorado plant. It has been set up by ex-Boeing engineers and has used second-hand robotics. LC sounded impressed. It could easily be replicated.A statistic - the US recycle about 9% of their plastics compared to 26% in the UKAt some point there was a discussion about the variable costs - raw materials, energy and labour. The Colorado plant will benefit from low energy and labour costs. Another thing to get excited about for Colorado in particular and the US in general.I suspect that the BOD know the price the sheets will be sold for but are keeping it to themselves. In an unguarded moment (and I can't remember the context) MR mentioned a price of EE40.Another anecdote, this time about Contour. He took one of their shower floors to the US, carrying it through customs. He was stopped and had to unwrap the board. The officer stopping him was tearing his hair out when he explained what it was. The officer had spent hours remodelling his concrete floor that weekend.
Thomas Tallis
31 Oct 2015
Re: AGM Many thanks Bidmoll for giving us the benefit of your time to produce this well written report.I am about to unleash my acid tongue but please note that my comments are based on information in Bidmoll's report (for which I am very grateful) and, as he has stated, it is a best effort report from memory and he acknowledges the possibility that he may have got the wrong end of the stick (which is understandable and warrants no criticism), so please consider that as you read my words - which are as usual, just chit chat, opinion and waffle.Legislation - we have heard it before but what has it done for gaining licences? In 2013 it was the "Green Fence". See this -27 June 2013"The global plastic recycling market opportunities for ERT have been substantially enhanced following the erection of the "Green Fence" by Chinese customs in early 2013 which has effectively stopped the importation of low quality and mixed waste for recycling into China. ...Given that 2013 is the 1st year where the targets for recycling plastic packaging escalate to meet the government's target for 2017, it is telling that evidence shows the volume of plastic which has been recycled has fallen.This is good news for ERT and the PIM process." - end of quote.However, that 2017 date is getting closer so let's hope there is a last minute dash to gear up for it and now that " We can supply a packaged business of varying sizes in many parts of the world" - recyclers are soon up and running.As for the Chinese deal - let's recall what happened - June 2014 -"Company in advanced discussions to licence PIM process in China...The enquiry received at the Chinaplast exhibition in May 2013 is at an advanced stage of negotiation. This is for an exclusive flat sheet licence for the China franchise and as such marks a milestone event for ERT. Whilst terms have been agreed in principal, these are predicated on the approval of business plans and manufacturing forecasts which have been modelled with Arup as part of ERT's collaboration agreement with Arup." From August 2014 -"Heads of Agreement have been signed with a Chinese consortium and the full form documentation is now in the hands of the respective lawyers."From September 2014 -"Well advanced stage of negotiations for major PIM Licenses in China and USA"- end of quotes - Then we learn that - "LC took advice from someone with local knowledge that the company was not the ones to use to open the market in China. They sounded like they wanted to sell too cheaply."They were in advanced discussions, spent money on visits with this consortium, the deal was in the hands of lawyers (presumably incuring fees!) and a last minute warning throws a spanner in the works. Now I'm just a simple chap, the board buffoon, but suppose those lawyers had acted quicker than lawyers usually do, and got the documents signed before that warning came in - it would be a done deal!How did it even get as far as the lawyers - they were in "advanced discussions" - didn't those discussions include discussion of the price? Or was the price mentioned and ERT was happy with it? (This is all guesswork and presumption on my part so please do not take it as anything more than waffle and thinking aloud.)And what about - "... terms have been agreed in principal, these are predicated on the approval of business plans ..." - that was in June 2014, and since, in August, we were told "documentation is now in the hands of the respective lawyers", I presume that, to be then sent to the lawyers, those plans got that approval. The business plans were approved either without any discussion of price or with a stated price but, at that time, they were happy with it?In September we were told - "Well advanced stage of negotiations for major PIM Licenses in China" - so the deal is still on. They are either still unaware of the price or happy with the price.Aren't we lucky t
restorer
31 Oct 2015
Re: AGM Thanks very much, Bidmoll, for taking the time and trouble to both attend the agm and post your take on it.
Bidmoll
30 Oct 2015
AGM After the formal business referred to in the RNS, Lee Clayton gave a presentation.He is happy with the progress made with setting up the joint ventures. We can supply a packaged business of varying sizes in many parts of the world. He is particularly happy that NBF has taken a consignment from Axplas. Their progress has been slow because they wanted to produce raw material locally whereas if they had taken the Axplas earlier they would be in production by now (shades of 2K). If you had noticed that NBF had taken the product off their website, it was because they were inundated with enquiriesHe explained that the Colorado licence came out of the blue and through no work on our part. They have moved quickly and will be producing in November. The capacity was confirmed as 40,000 sheets. No idea of price.China. LC took advice from someone with local knowledge that the company was not the ones to use to open the market in China. They sounded like they wanted to sell too cheaply. LC was also advised to look at the local construction sites. They were completely shut down. Again an indication that this was not the right time to go into this market.An anecdote gives a clue to the timing. LC was on the way home feeling depressed about having to turn the Chinese down but he watched the Steve Jobs film on the plane and was heartened by the Jobs comment about never selling his product cheaply.Brown Water Plastics. They had some problems with the barge covers flattening out with their weight and therefore not fitting the barges. LC was visiting their factory with an ARUP employee and ARUP were able to fix the problem within a couple of months and without BWP having to order new moulds (at $250,000 each). The order continues to be filled.Contour Showers. Very happy with their product. LC can see it selling well in the US but is mindful that they need to get their management right here first. They expect 5% year on year growth from an admittedly small base. A quality product attracting a premium price.LC provided some statistics about recycling and the limits being/to be imposed on industry by international agreement. I can't remember the figures but we have heard it all before.LC still clearly sees the US as the market to go for. With the end of the China deal I can't see him revisiting Asia unless someone comes to him with a very good plan. Instead he will concentrate his efforts in the US and Europe. He agrees that he is spreading himself too thinly and is glad that the chairman is taking an active interest in the business.I think that was all from the presentation but I will add to it later if anything comes to mind.After the presentation there was a Q & A session. It was opened by one shareholder who asked about the cull of directors that was done at the behest of OxCap and how the shareholders not connected to OxCap were to be represented. The Chairman, Michael Rowan explained that the cull was the first part of a cost saving exercise and that the appointment of more Directors will be considered. LC said that he was still speaking to all the ex-directors who were all willing to offer their support and advice to him. MR also appears to be becoming more involved, attending meetings with potential licencees in the UK and Germany recently.The same shareholder questioned how OxCap had managed to reduce their holding from 30% to 10% without informing the company. The NOMAD didn't agree or disagree but said he would see what the correct position was and get back to the shareholder. Hopefully the NOMAD will share the information with the rest of us somehow.MW asked as few questions about working capital and we were informed that a plan was in place to keep us going in the short term. MW pressed for more information about the defunct takeover and the new deal that was currently being considered. He didn't get anything worthwhile.Questioned about revenues, LC simply said that licence fees and r
Thomas Tallis
30 Oct 2015
O/T - top fund manager This is about investing in general and not about ERT."Top fund manager: 'I don't meet company bosses - they lie'Ardevora's Jeremy Lang, a respected investor, explains his unusual approach to stock-picking "[link] have a few other high risk high reward stocks, which I will hold for now, but for new investments -this is my strategy from now on -"I prefer to invest in businesses that are successful without taking risks, falling into the boring and dull categories"Here is a real nugget - "The biggest lesson I learnt was that people who run banks will hide things from investors, so cannot be trusted."
Thomas Tallis
30 Oct 2015
Weak market condiitions Quote - "The challenge for ERT has been to achieve commercial progress in the context of a weak market background"See previous posts of mine when I discussed the conditions affecting the industry (with quotes from people such as Roger Baynham and other industry bosses) - and the clever clogs on here scoffed at me.They did not want to debate issues in a realistic manner, all they wanted was rose-tinted views.For me - this AGM Statement is a big yawn.""The joint venture agreement with Axion Polymers has continued to provide valuable information ..." - but how much cash has it provided?What happend to the Chinese deal? I find it an absolute disgrace that, after so much comment in previous reports and statements from ERT, they can drop all mention."Other commercial enquiries continue to develop both in the UK and internationally." - a bit more detail would have been appreciated. To me, that statement is too vague to give me any confidence.
Thomas Tallis
26 Oct 2015
Waiting for Friday It has been quite a while since any of the cheerleaders have posted one of their optimistic comments. I have forgotten what caused the last posts of hope and optimism - was it the recruitment of those new directors or was it the turnkey deal?It would be nice to know if they still see light at the end of the tunnel.It will soon be a year since dief said to wait "a little longer".dief never explained what we should wait for when she said "a little longer".Would she now care to explain?Questions for the AGM -What happened to the talks with the Chinese consortium? Why was there no mention in the report interims? Why were we kept in the dark?Was that the only inquiry from the Guangzhou exhibition? If it was, in what way was the trip to China "successful"?Why have the directors left?
Thomas Tallis
22 Oct 2015
The most incredible percentage At one point, the sp was over 150p and today it is 0.1505p, Bid. Today's bid is one tenth of one per cent of what it was.That is a fall of 99.9% !How much closer can you get to 100% without it being actually 100%?And you know what - the cheerleaders have been giving us rose-tinted opinion all the way from about 4p down to here. That was before the recent spell of silence from them.
Thomas Tallis
22 Oct 2015
The AGM and the sp Somebody has just dumped 2,001,329 at 0.1505p = £00.1505.I'm surprised by how the sp has kept up at this level, but is it about to go over the waterfall?The AGM could bring news that lifts the sp, or it could bring disappointment and the fall to 0.05p. Which will it be?It is now well over a year since we were told of Brownwater getting that million plus order (milion pounds not dollars.), so we could hear of fees flooding in.It is also coming up to a year since dief told us to wait just "a little longer" - will the AGM bring good news to which she allluded?I wait in hope - but not much hope as past experience has taught me that good news is rare and disappointment is the more usual result from this one.
