hitman1
22 Oct 2018
Bought some Second RNS re rump placing… all sold at 28p . cheap enough to bite. … talk about giving them away… Guess a small bounce tomorrow off 28p in the morning… at least we found our floor.
Beatley
22 Oct 2018
Bought some I’ve just added as well, a little bit of an overhang with the 22m shares but shouldn’t have too much of an impact. Market cap now slightly under £500m, will be interesting to see where it goes from here.
hitman1
22 Oct 2018
Bought some A little wait for some better news towards end of Nov… re production rates… but the rump of unwanted shares , some 22m needs to be disposed of… say over 2 weeks imv. Bought some at 30.59. much better than participating in rights issue… but still disappointed like others that the actual SP isn’t nearer 35p/40p… Brent is doing nicely, so earnings in Q4 2018 and 2019 should be solid. Won’t know the numbers for quite a while, so an ops update in early Jan 2019 might be the trigger for the re-rate… and not the Nov update. Might buy more in the 30p range for rest of week and dispose of in 33p range… towards end of Nov.
Beatley
16 Oct 2018
Bought some I’ve had half an eye on Enquest for a while and it does finally seem like the company is on the cusp of starting the deleveraging process, which should increase the equity valuation. The Magnus deal looks great on paper, particularly if Enquest they can squeeze a little bit more out of the asset. Kraken is sill under-performing, but with DC4 online (not sure when?) production should be 40k+ on average next year?! Working out the free cash flow isn’t easy, but I’m guessing it’ll come in at $400m with oil at $75 and EBITDA around $800m. Happy to discuss if others have different views.
hitman1
16 Oct 2018
Bought some You could be overvaluing the rest of the company, … whilst the debt mountain remains… deleveraging would help… but it looks like in 2019… plus DC4 to pay for , so could be 2H 2019, where first positive signs are seen. good end to the day.
Beatley
16 Oct 2018
Bought some Usually a bit early to the party, but if Enquest are buying a £400m asset then the rest of the company is being valued at just £140m. It certainly appears cheap, but maybe I’m missing something?
hitman1
03 Oct 2018
SP ex rights Found a little more at the end of the barrel. …last lot. 15.50p on the rights this am. bought the shares at 36.75 . 1.5% better than yesterday on conversion, Perhaps it will trend higher… Aiming for 45p by xmas… but doesn’t 50p/55p look possible in 2019 with everything working with real deleveraging ?. GL.
karlwbrown58
02 Oct 2018
Enquest production approx 63k boepd for Feb this i a steal now, guidance for 2019 will be around 70k bopde at 80 dollar oil the nett cashflow produced wwill be near $1 bill that will put a whole in the debt pile and thus interest costs dropping by around £70mill straight to bottom line, this will look ultra cheap this time next year BUY…imho
Diesel
02 Oct 2018
SP ex rights For what it’s worth I’ll be taking up my rights, given the value of Magnus I am quietly confident that merged sp will be back in the 40’s by Xmas. In any case AB is taking up a few million squids, so think I’m in good company
hitman1
02 Oct 2018
SP ex rights Sold all my rights today at 14.99p… and used the funds to buy the main stock at 36p. Difference of 21p… so same as cost to make them fully paid… ok, I have less % shares, but like others, I don’t want to put more money in… but glad at 36p, we have a market cap of £600m… Seems likely that Enquest can improve by £150m over the next 6 mths, to get the market cap higher towards £750m , ie 45p Lots of talk of US oilers equity not catching up with the oil price… partly down to hedging, lower prices, etc… so like Enquest really… but this should start to climb over next 3 mths once we see numbers… it may take longer and so 45p might be passed depending on what they are. GL. …can’t see us trading above 36p until the marriage takes place.
Diesel
01 Oct 2018
SP ex rights Tomorrow will be bit of a rollercoaster, who would have foreseen oil at usd85 & climbing, when the RI was announced? For my pennies worth I think price will open around 35p & within a fortnight be where it is today… all good fun…
hitman1
01 Oct 2018
SP ex rights Tomorrow we should have 2 equity parts of the company trading independently: old company worth £500m ( but really £750m) trades at 41p, some expect this to drop: ex rights a few pence, but I have my doubts it will fall that much… it might even go up 1p tomorrow…? new bit worth £100m ( but really £400m), trades as high as 18p imv. Marriage value ? with Brent heading north at $84… nearer 45p imv . £750m. If correct, could just sell the rights if they trade near 18p… and purchase old stock with proceeds and wait for 45p, or inject more cash and get more shares if they trade in 12p range. ?
hitman1
25 Sep 2018
SP ex rights Magnus is definitely a good deal, and there has been some excellent analysis on the other board. But the deleveraging process hasn’t started and Kraken is producing quite a bit below original target. Perhaps Enquest need another 6 months to improve things further. I’m sticking with Barclays target, … if I add more via rights, then there is money here to be made, but asking shareholders for money is seen as a sign of weakness given how long they have had on Kraken to sort issues out.
Diesel
25 Sep 2018
SP ex rights That’s usd165million additional gross profit pa annum.!
Diesel
25 Sep 2018
SP ex rights Am I missing something. The Magnus deal is adding approx 15k x 75% = 11250 BOPD for 200m usd. (for simplicity im excluding additional assets). Say opex is usd 40 a barrel this will generate additional usd gross profit of usd 450,000 a day or usd165 per annum. What a steal seems too good to be true & also beating in mind 50% of purchase price is through a bp loan. If I’m right in my rough calcs sp looks massively undervalued.
