romaron
29 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview I had another thought. To counter your argument; why bring on DC4? We know that money has been tight (unless unavoidable contract commitment) so if the DC4 could have been parked they would not have done the work at this time.
romaron
29 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview Hi hitman - that is one of the best explanations I’ve read about Kraken production and it makes sense. They have had over a year of production to understand this field and try out different processes without hitting the 50,000 barrels. It fits the facts of production to date and we cannot pretend we’d rather have less bopd and a longer time to do it in as an exchange. If oil ever goes over $100 for a length of time we’ll say it was serendipity.
hitman1
27 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview Finally I see Bloomberg are criticising the overweight position of the majority of US investors in US tracker funds and FANG stocks… rapid growth may have stalled, and we now see a healthy correction. I’d suggest we have lower to go on the Dow Jones/ other US indices… switch to cash until it settles down… Perhaps lose another 2,000 points off the Dow Jones now Trump’s tax break policies will have little effect against the US Treasury increasing the Interest rates in 2019… The party is over in the US… So what do people invest in, apart from cash or US 30yr treasury bonds… well Oil stocks are making good margins now… Enquest is too… so perhaps a cyclical switch of some funds into large cap oil stocks… for the yield… Enquest must be close to 60k/day excluding the new Magnus bit… so revenue will be near the $1.5b mark plus profits from Magnus… in 2019. FCF is near 2/3rds imv , based on Brent $70net. I think I heard a discussion about Enquest making a quite substantially amount of money in 2019, so the debt can be partially paid off, in accordance with the schedule… but the bulk re-organised towards end of 2019… with a longer period, with lower interest rates, which leaves quite a lot of cash every year to make another large purchase… They aren’t going to pay off all the debt imv, As far as the comments on LSE about Kraken not being able to do 50k/day… probably true… if you test the wells individually, it definitely can… because we had an RNS saying it does… but add them all together and switch on production… and it can’t … The sum of the parts is definitely not greater than the individual components… but in other walks of life… the reverse is true. The specification of oil produced has to fall within certain criteria… so there just aren’t enough hours in the day to produce 50k/day, based on the amount of water that has to be processed . shame really because they haven’t found a solution yet… and I don’t think they will. So DC4 coming online in 2019 may not make much difference to the daily output… it just means we can run near 36k/40k for a lot longer… (several years) and takes pressure off the other wells. Can’t see 23p, but with Brent at $77.68, we could open near 28p… As AB said at the AGM, the shareholder register lacks larger investors , so this has to change before the SP can really propel forward. With no sign of waivers from the US, Iran sanctions will start to bite supply… we need to see money flow into Oil stocks for dividends etc… and perhaps later for capital appreciation (Enquest). There have been one or two results from overseas oil companies ( non-US), showing good profits in the last reported periods. GL.
gk10
26 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview On the 9th of September I suggested 23p could be hit, I don’t think it will now but am of the opinion this still has lower to go. I hope I am wrong but let’s see how things pan out early next week. Good luck and have a good weekend. Good times will come here soon.
gk10
25 Oct 2018
Bought some Short tracker has now updated to show Quanty on 0.5% and Marshall Wace increased on the weird so, allowing for the additional shares in issue, the disclosed shorts are still increasing. It’s a similar story with PMO. A better day today, might look to take a few early next week. Good luck.
hitman1
25 Oct 2018
Bought some I’ll never understand how shorts can control the price both ways… SP drop on very low turnover too. Final top up today at 27.32p (helps the 30.69 further). Waiting for the Tesla moment when they issue a good quarter. Can’t happen here as we only get half-yearly accounts… but a key metric would be NET DEBT as a decent guide… so early next year. Brent now as $76.64 which is fine. Back to 30p soon.
gk10
24 Oct 2018
Bought some So the shorts are down significantly, a combination of the additional shares in issue and Quanty closing their position. I wonder if a few 28p shares were involved? Good luck tomorrow.
hitman1
24 Oct 2018
Bought some RNS today 24/10 ; Double A bought 5m shares via the RUMP placing… at 28p
hitman1
24 Oct 2018
Bought some US Midterms. so sell market for 2 weeks… and then rally to Xmas. Brent already recovering… back to $76.08. Iran sanctions kick in Nov 4th… OPEC won’t want too much below $80… (ps : no-one ever talks about natural depletion)
hitman1
24 Oct 2018
Bought some Well another top up this am at 26.72 to help out the 30.59 the other day. average 28.65 , plus 28.11 28.38 average so far… plus old stock at 34p. happy to make another one if we go lower… because OPEC aren’t going to want this to fall much further… BUT large investors around the world don’t see much upside to Brent above $85… so won’t pile in… But at $75, and unit costs about a third… Enquest should start to show the cash generation as of now… Let’s forget about Magnus reserves… let’s say NPV gets spread over 7 years… so $500m , £55m profit added to the results every year… Lets say Enquest has 60k/day for 2019 , I still think we are £800m FCF/annum , plus Magnus cash. and that’s based on 22m… are reserves are nearer 120M plus Magnus. A little longer perhaps to start the deleveraging process but JS was confident that there would be substantial cash inflow in 2019. Morgan Stanley still see Brent nearer $85 towards end of year, once Iran sanctions bite a bit more and the market tightens up further.
Beatley
24 Oct 2018
Bought some If there was an award for sad internet trolls specialising in the oil sector then you’d a very good chance of winning it, GK10. You’ve been like a kid in a candy shop over the last couple of days. It must be an odd feeling to get pleasure from the perceived misfortune of others, but hey, whatever floats your boat. I could drone on about how lucky fortunate/lucky I’ve been during the oil downturn but I really can’t be bothered. You’re a sad little man and you’ll be gone from my screen as soon as I can find the block button.
gk10
24 Oct 2018
Bought some Beatley, Have you heard the saying fools rush in? I think you have demonstrated that saying both here and with your PMO buy. Good luck son.
hitman1
23 Oct 2018
Bought some Topped up at 28.11p just now. can’t say it will be the last. Jefferies definitely exhausted by following this share… just hasn’t happened fast enough… Will we trend to their 25p target… ? , seems too low… but so is 28p. Enquest need to release current production numbers to the market… asap. even the Directors shares are underwater… we should be talking 72k at $72 $1.9b revenue for 2019. and 2/3rd freeflow cash after DC4. that’s over $1b. but if the company isn’t able to throw out freeflow cash now, how can it next year… well because it’s still investing and paying for historic and new capex. These are big projects…
Beatley
23 Oct 2018
Bought some Last lot at just over 28p and that’s me done. Still a risky investment, but if they can get Kraken sorted, milk magnus for all it’s worth and step the decline of the legacy assets then it should prove quite a profitable investment. Should being the key word of course. GLA.
gk10
22 Oct 2018
Bought some It will be interesting to see if Marshall Wace and Quartys positions change in the next day or so. 28p to close without having to buy on the open market? I’m sitting on my hands for now. Good luck.
