gk10
14 Nov 2018
Took a few Good luck all.
gk10
13 Nov 2018
Cnbc interview Well the 23p was finally hit today with a big help from the oil price. I would imagine there will be a bit of carnage in the morning, possibly a buying opportunity after that? Good luck.
hitman1
09 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article Your right… but I do remember talking to AB after the AGM… He mentioned whilst talking to Romaron that the Brent price and environment had changed a lot… He saw $75 as the max, so the board would be very well prepared for $70 Brent . Not as nice as $80, but as we travel along the path of reduced capex and debt repayment and lower interest charges… the equity value does improve… a little bit every day… but split between 1.7b shares. you start seeing an extra $100m in your account that you didn’t have before and it increases by $50m each year… the cumulative effect over 4 years is worth in interest savings (50m,100m,150m,200m): $500m , plus $100m capex less each year. so nearly $900m. plus the normal profit from 60k/day and Magnus cashflow, which Fernan gave some good calcs on.
Shotry
08 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article The hidden bullish divergence has not yet confirmed, so I’m early. I’ve bought ENQ in a downtrend. The pattern remains viable for the moment.
hitman1
08 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article Yes there was a challenge the other day at 29.75, when Brent was touching $74., but I think the performance on the day was due to some shorts closing… I’d say the OPEC little meeting this weekend will result in some positive news next week… and then some sort of details on production cuts in 2019… by the time of OPEC big meeting in Dec. only 4 weeks really. Funny how the sanctions aren’t really on oil, but on oil receipts imv… so there was no need for Russia and Saudi to increase production by 1m bopd way back in July… They must feel they were conned… I certainly do… and I hope the anger amongst some smaller OPEC members translates into higher prices nearer $76. I’m not surprised to see the $10 gap between WTI and Brent… I see this widening in 2019 . Canadian oil already sells at massive discounts… and US WTI will trend lower… Anything below $60 and they are cash negative… so once it hits $55, you will see a lot of hurt in the US. Brent on the other hand will get to $75 plus , so a potential $20 gap is on the horizon… I heard one newsreader says Trump prevented oil from going to $100 , or above… so perhaps even he will get used to Brent nearer $80 as the current rate is too low for reinvestment… Enquest really have to show the production cards soon in 3 weeks time… but I guess they won’t. It’s now all about net debt… paying off smaller chunks early and saving interest charges along the way … no more CAPEX… Target 35p early Dec.
Shotry
08 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article For what it’s worth I bought a few back this morning at 28. There’s a hidden divergence developing on the 2h chart. It confirms or not at 10 am (GMT; close of 2 hour period). Possibly jumped the gun by buying at 10. I’m hoping for a challenge of 29.75/30 area. WTI also perked up, although there’s a good chance it’ll perk back down when it hits 62.8 area (50eMA on 2h chart). Lots to watch!
hitman1
07 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article Seems to have got the 2019 EPS figure from Jefferies I think… but thinks SP is way undervalued. Wait and see… but it’s all in 2019… subject to oil price… I note even Iraq now says they want a price higher than Brent $70 and the “higher the betterâ€â€¦ Trump forced Saudi and Russia to open the taps early October 18 which we now know wasn’t needed , as sanctions were very soft. Longs sold out into election, but Opec meeting in early Dec 18 should confirm the mechanism for ensuring adequate supplies in 2019 and not over-production. Aim for Brent $75 … and some sort of progress on DC4 in Q1 2019.
hitman1
07 Nov 2018
MOTLEY article [link]
hitman1
01 Nov 2018
Director RNS Laurie Fitch got 70,000 shares at 26.1p Remember talking to her at the AGM.
hitman1
01 Nov 2018
Cnbc interview Using Fernan’s excel spreadsheet. for 2019, I have $50m/mth plus cashflow from Magnus based on 65k/day and Brent at $80. so say $750m/annum FCF, after interest and lease payments… so potentially only $500m remaining of debt after 24 mths… 2P of 210mb… as of 31 Dec 2017. using up 2018,2019 and 2020, uses up 68m, leaving 142M, plus cashflow from Magnus. (albeit leaving 14 years of production, so cashflow/annum will be a less, but still accretive to equity holders, as a lot less interest being paid). My concern is that voidage is caused by running higher throughput from Kraken… but if resolved… then DC4 should get us near 65k in 2019… as we much be doing near 60k/day now…
hitman1
30 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview I guess China is waiting for the Mid term results. If negative for Trump, there will be pressure on Trump to give in and compromise on the remaining tariff action. Quite a few are just waiting for the Trump Presidency to finish and everything will go back to as before. No one wants trade wars. If mid terms are positive for Trump… then China might still not compromise… Both will suffer for the next 2 years until the Trump presidency comes to an end. I just can’t see the point of Tariffs on all Chinese imports… hurts US consumers too.
hitman1
30 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview Last year. Nov 17 Ops update. showed net debt as of 31 Oct 2017. Feb 18 Ops update showed net debt as of 31 Dec 2017 I guess we need to wait for the Feb 19 ops update to see how much net debt has reduced by… which may trigger the re-rate… if it inspires some confidence in extrapolating forward quarter to quarter. Nov 18 may be too early…to have that Tesla moment. but you never know… we are producing a lot of oil and the Brent rate is still very good. Still believe we will head to $80/$85 plus towards xmas. Get past the US Mid term… Trump wants to be seen as hard as he can… and then soften the approach once the results come in. And sanctions don’t have to be that tough either against Iran., even a 20% reduction in Iranian supply would be sufficient for the price of Brent to be marked up higher.
romaron
30 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview I’m hoping the November update will have additional information so that we can recalibrate. With long gaps between releases the complicated arrangements get even cloudier and messier. I sometimes think we analyse too deeply and concentrate on polishing the hand rails when a near miss iceberg goes unnoticed. I’m not even sure of the DC4 situation and will wait until the update and then look at what is outstanding. We may have bigger things to worry about by then. Maybe Trump telling his voters that he has ‘won’ the Chinese trade war. Iran and the latest Saudi/Russian manoeuvres.
hitman1
29 Oct 2018
Cnbc interview Definitely remember a bit of discussion from Cairn. and reducing the number of wells from 4 to 3, so I’d say they had a contract commitment on the rig lease only, and then decided later, once data and funds were available. But if DC4 has a lower water cut… it may improve the daily average a little bit… It could also be the quality or properties of oil at DC4 maybe slightly different to elsewhere… so a higher grade might be able to be produced with it blended in … reducing the discount off Brent…
hitman1
29 Oct 2018
Budget Autum 2018 Red Book : P66 : Diagram: Support for the oil and gas sector, including the introduction of transferable tax history P70: 4.104 Maintaining the UK’s globally competitive oil and gas fiscal regime – The government is maintaining headline tax rates at their current level. This will help the oil and gas industry continue its recovery from the 2014 oil price crash, protect jobs, and ensure the UK is attractive for new investment, whilst giving the nation a fair return for its natural resources. 4.105 Oil and gas taxation: transferable tax history and retention of decommissioning expenditure – As announced at Autumn Budget 2017, the government will introduce a transferable tax history mechanism in Finance Bill 2018-19 for oil and gas companies that will remove tax barriers to new investment in the North Sea. The government will also amend the Petroleum Revenue Tax rules on retained decommissioning costs to simplify the way older fields can be sold to new investors. This will provide further support for an industry that is a vital part of the economies of Scotland and the rest of the UK. 4.106 Strengthening the UK’s offshore decommissioning industry – Building on the recent progress made by the oil and gas industry, the government will launch a call for evidence and work together with the Oil and Gas Authority to identify what more should be done to further strengthen Scotland and the UK’s position as a global hub for decommissioning.
