Took a few at 31.65 Bailed just before the close, some you win some you don’t. Good luck Monday.
It ain't fair They say the best time to sell is when a share is rising which is what I did with Halma only to see it keep rising and enter the FTSE100. It is now close to 20 x next year’s EBITDA. They say trees don’t grow to the sky and just to complicate matters Warren Buffet would probably say Halma is a hold forever stock. The growth of Halma is fuelled by buying smaller companies and 39 years of successive dividend increases suggest they know what they’re doing. So, don’t laugh at the back, I think we should compare Enquest to them in a favourable light. The market’s valuation/opinion of Enquest would be correct using the EBITDA formula as last year it was negative: Profit/(loss) before tax ($243.8mio) 2017 whilst 2016 was a profit $217.2mio I don’t trust EBITDA because of its inherent malleability and it can be subjective but I’m sure some of you clever fellas can produce some figures here. We will not be as bad as the 2017 figures for the foreseeable but analysts will do rough calculations and they haven’t been good recently. That is what the figures say! Things really can only get better and I’d rather buy a stock from a low base if the future looks bright. The Halma growth model is similar to ours in respect that we but tired or end of life fields and assets and for arguments sake I’m calling them companies. Our EBITDA is probably abysmal and if you only look at the (historic) numbers then you have to question Enquest as an investment. Obviously I am contrarian and think you should sell Halma, buy Enquest. The market is wrong and I’m right. Nurse, I’m ready for my medication.
Took a few at 31.65 It has bounced off that level a couple of times now. I’m only in for a quick 3-5%, hopefully up not down, I will be out either way before the OPEC meeting.
Long term trend is up as seen in the 200sma Add to that the share has never gone oversold since beginning of the year !A sure sign of bullish trending . Even though the retrace has hurt Enquest way more than its peers. What surprises me more about Enq that say the others in the sector is the fact that Enquest has no yet gone above its year highs . Tullow did, Cairn , Premier , even Shell and BP . In relative strengths terms this is the one underperforming . This is despite the good Kraken news and so far great Brent futures average .Premier for instance retraced but remains above the Jan highs by almost 10% ! If Enquest did the same we be at 48/49p . Sentiment here has never really followed the stock so far this year. But neither abandoned it . So am hoping for at least a realignment . Brent is surging which is not what I was expecting , ( my expectation was for a retrace to then see us boom post summer time ) . We had a retrace but I was expecting Brent to dip lower to around $70 if not a little lower too. Life is never simple
Added towards close at just over 33.
Cul-de-sac I have solved my confusion and wasted time with the AB - Double A share holding. They are basically one and the same. P 83 of the 2017 Report under Statement of Director's shareholdings and share interests:'Amjad Bseisu 103,258,316(2)(2) 103,141,033 shares are held by Double A Limited, a discretionary trust in which the extended family of Amjad Bseisu has a beneficial interest. The remaining 117,283shares are held by Amjad Bseisu directly.'I actually hold more shares than AB by one measurement (the 117,283) but throw in the unvested/vested etc. and AB's holding could be 116,135,028. The Bseisu's benefit more than anybody if Enquest is a success. Jonathan Swinney holds a potential total of 8,334,479. Most posters don't seem to be interested in the Directors holdings but I feel a more holistic approach can be revealing.There is an interesting graph on the same page that shows Enquest performing in line with the FTSE AIM All-Share - Oil & Gas and only really outperforming between (roughly) June 2012 - May 2014. The collapse of oil was like hitting a brick wall. It would be nice to get back on track. We had broken free of AIM all share Oil/Gas levels but now we are lumped in with them. Therein lies our problem and it is cheap of the management to make them our peers. We aren't an AIM share and it concerns me that the management wish to use the comparison of under achievers.'The FTSE AIM All-Share Oil & Gas has been selected for this comparison as it is the index whose constituents most closely reflect the size and activities of EnQuest.' If the management think we are like an AIM share then no wonder the analysts do the same!*Looked at Petrofac because of our deep ties there and the share price is roughly half what it was before the oil crisis. Recovery is taking longer than most expected.
Re: Fao Elena: How to destroy your credi... OnedB,Nice theory but anyone who has followed EnQuest over the last few years knows if the oil price drops this will drop harder whether or not it has risen faster or slower than its peers.What I don't understand is why you preach "Either way capital preservation is my goal" on one board yet you recklessly advocate gambling on this board?Good luck to all the genuine holders, let's hope Elena's forecast doesn't come to fruition, for her sake as much as yours.If it does I'll take a few.
ENQUF on OTCMKTS is up 32% I wouldn't want to be short next week just like pmo before its results due, shorters gonna burn muhahahah, the bottom is at 10.5p and poo is increasing enq sp is increasing and enq is similar to pmo got debt, north sea assets, and that bottomed at 20p and after result now is 50p and same can happen to enq and lots of buys last week and a large buy on friday ebfore close gla
Unfortunately, I need this to be near 60p again. Let's hope tomorrow brings better news!
Read more about the First Oil from Alma/Galia Field, North Sea at [link]
bought these at 62 , 52 , 23 looking like a good thing now expect price to fall tomorrow but will continue long term growth .
I think Enq will re-bound to 71p by end of Feb and then hover around at that price. I think with the continued oil crisis and uncertainty it looks like it is going to carry on for a while. Esp. with New North Sea projects (new projects being worthless with oil at $60pb). I do not think we will see the £1 price for quite a while.
The Alma Galia field, if/when it comes on stream mid year is forecast to have a production cost of over $90 per barrel
But if the credit is withheld part way through 2015 (because oil is too low ie the banks wont take the risk) they are short of cash, ...they can issue more shares to raise cash but the share price will be battered for current holders
As has been noted not all oil is hedged in 2015. Alma if it comes on stream has a production cost of $90 (I have read) would not be surprised if its postponed because they will make a loss on every barrel at any oil price below that. This is partly why they need more credit (to pay for the cappex)