Warthog4
10 Mar 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Some very good points cta and well researched.Analysts may have come to the same conclusions and this probably is one of the reasons for a 15% slump in the SP since 31/12 Vs only a 5% fall in the 250 Index.The years float by and the folk running this company seem to have resigned themselves to it remaining mediocre, (unlike their "compensation"!!)Sigh!
cta100
09 Mar 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? The concerns noted in this thread over the bloat in compensation costs are valid indeed. In short, it is a reflection of Man's recent acquisition strategy (being to maintain nominal management earning levels by having a higher FUM base to offset the trend in lower margins).On the face of it, and by that am referring to the adjusted earnings / investor presentation slides, it is working. Adjusted net management PBT is $194m (2015) compared to $198m (2014). This is the number the company wants investors to focus on: as the adj net mgt EPS is maintained at 10.2 cents (10.1 cents prior year), and supports the current dividend yield through the new(ish) policy, thus also supporting the overall share price as an income stock.But alot of the additional costs associated with these acquisitions, which are real costs, the FD just puts below the line to try and pretty up the numbers. The adjusting items have ballooned from $97m to $216m. See page 31 of the statutory accounts for the statutory to adjusted p&l rec.The main concern within that list is the revaluation of contingent consideration. Which is a $62m charge not taken through the adjusted p&l number. This relates to a clawback of management fee earnings payable to the prior owners of the acquired companies (and is the sweetener to the get these deals done with a low upfront cash consideration). So management are essentially presenting fee revenue from recent acquisitions as EPS without including the associated costs in their p&l... I conclude that the statutory earnings are more accurate. The dividend policy doesn't look sustainable as such so won't be holding long term as is overvalued. But is probably a good trade in buying pre xd in mid April and holding through Q1 results in early May for which good performance fee results should mask all of the above.
Warthog4
25 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? I had an interesting exchange of emails with Fiona Smart yesterday. I'm afraid my initial email was a tad acerbic as a result of me seeing several thousand pounds gone following the results and included a criticism of the rise in "compensation" Vs the 21% drop in the Final Div. She riposted, a tad tersely (!) with the fact that total dividend for the year was up by 9%. My calcs came out at 0.9% however and in response to my further query she riposted by saying"In sterling the total dividend is up 9%"-she did not append her calculations.So, my friends am I right in thinking Man is hiding behind exchange rate fluctuations to mask poor results in its currency of operation or am I totally way of beam? I am bound to remark as well, that if we shareholders have benefitted from the weaker pound then surely the bonuses awarded to the chaps and chapesses at Man have benefitted equally despite their poor performance?
alphatrooper
24 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Good spot on the mgt/perf revenue vs compensation!!just naking my way through the pack now... couple of things jump out... 1. trend to lower net margin... at group level from 114 to a run rate of 91bps, that's a drop of 21%!... reflects the trend to the asset mix of lower margin: both institutional and into the non-AHL strategies. 2. the adjusting items reducing over half the EBIT, I see the majority is good will write down so actually not a cash event... the old trap of cash versus earnings!3. costs: its a bit rich to claim progress on cost reduction when your revenue like for like is practically flat but at the same time total costs go up 13%But to bring some balance to the discussion... this share price drop is a reaction to the results of last year... now I did say a flat performance and 150 for the year!! 
but the forward looking view is a lot more positive!AHL strategies are marching ahead this year so far with the big ones gaining 5, 6, 7% so far... with performance comes flows! So the forward looking view should be a bit more optimistic as long as this pattern holds... >160 is fair valueI am going to dig into this report and see what else I can find... I am geek at heart, I love results day!! Sorry for anyone who took a hit today!Peace outAT
Clarence Beaks
24 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Bit of a let down today.
Warthog4
24 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Sure is-a big joke but not funny.Looking at revenue Vs Compensation in a bit more detail.Management fee income +6%.Compensation +12%Performance fee income -11%. Compensation +37%Total net revenues +0.3%. Compensation +18%The phrase "taking the......" springs to mind
Panofscouse
24 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? 'Higher than expected staff costs'. What a joke of a share this is.
Warthog4
24 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Oink oink indeed.With the caveat of only a quick look:-FUM + 8% but Redemtions+21.5% against only +4.6% in Gross Sales.Statutory PBT -52% assisted by a massive +123% in Adjusting Items-details not yet researchedRemuneration +18% but our Final Div. -21%!!!!!!!!!Man Folk apparently still not cutting the mustard but being paid handsomely notwithstanding.
Warthog4
23 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Marking time at present.Nice upward gallop today followed by usual pathetic collapse towards opening price.Let's hope for good results tomorrow.Oink Oink
Clarence Beaks
18 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Thanks all.
Warthog4
16 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Up and down really eg great figures last Thursday negated by bad 'uns last Friday!!
Warthog4
12 Feb 2016
Re: Is AHL liking these markets? Dunno- but nice recovery yesterday followed by a flying start this morning then an immediate reversion to opening SP. As for AHL, YTD pluses of up to 9.2% after only 6 weeks which seem illogical. AHL boomed in the 2014 boom then collapsed when the market collapsed BUT is improving during this latest collapse so no rhyme or reason. Having said that can one apply reason to market conditions at present?As you say Clarence "curious"
Clarence Beaks
11 Feb 2016
Is AHL liking these markets? curious.
Warthog4
31 Dec 2015
Re: breaking into a new trading range With only hours to go before a mixed 2015 disappears, best wishes to all posters on this BB for a more stable and prosperous New Year.
Hawk Eye32
29 Dec 2015
Re: breaking into a new trading range For the first time in 6 months it does look like a break out at long last, I' m just breaking even at present so hoping 2016 will be the year we move ahead.
