The buzz
02 Mar 2017
6th March .. is Coming I noticed a good rise today - anticipation of a reasonably good set of results to be announced on 6th March??The B
LK Hyman
23 Feb 2017
Re: LKH and Bill 1703 Treattation Lazy M,"Retiring to a darkened room."I trust you got into Treatt before today's rise in the share price, m8?Many thanks for the adder upper stuff.LKH on the flybridge
Lazy M
22 Feb 2017
LKH and Bill 1703 Treattation LKH and Bill 11703My humblest apologies. Been sloppy in my calculations (lazy).I reckon on Enterprise value £135.33m (Market value 133, Net debt 2.33). £EBITDA £9.44 (Normalised pre tax 7.5, Depreciation1.49, Net int. paid 0.45)Therefore PER 17.8 (approx.)....EV/EBITDA 14.34Much better. Retiring to a darkened room.
Bill1703
22 Feb 2017
Re: LKH "In my view only Treatt looks pretty sound ... However I do not think it particularly cheap at the moment... Is there an engine for real growth? I generally like to see the ratio of enterprise value to EBITDA to be somewhat less than the PER. This is not the case."Lazy M / LKH - have been looking at Treatt myself. Been tipped / written about a couple of times recently.But I don't agree on your PER < EV/EBITDA conclusion (which would be unusual, I agree). I have it on 20x P/E historic (falling to ~18x), 13x EV/EBITDA, just under 5% true FCF yield.EV/EBITDA will depend partly on how you treat the pension deficit - but doesn't make that much difference.Overall, it's an interesting company IMHO, but while it's far from outrageously valued, I agree that it's not particularly cheap. Probably around fair value for me...
LK Hyman
22 Feb 2017
Re: LKH Lazy M,"remember I bought Tesco."So did I, m8 ... but then so did Warren Buffett, so don't knock yourself out about it.LKH on the flybridge
Boring Bernie
22 Feb 2017
Re: LKH Lazy MI've held DS Smith for a number of years now and like the company, which seems to be well run and ticks lots of ( cardboard ) boxes. I've no idea whether or not now is a good time to buy them though. I think they're looking pretty much fully valued at the moment, but I'm as clueless as the next guy !
Lazy M
22 Feb 2017
LKH In my view only Treatt looks pretty sound with reducing net borrowings and a steady turnover. If you have held this share for a while you will have done well. However I do not think it particularly cheap at the moment.Is there an engine for real growth? I generally like to see the ratio of enterprise value to EBITDA to be somewhat less than the PER. This is not the case.Nothing to worry about I am sure. From your perspective the dividend must be very good based on your original purchase. Dividend cover of about 3 should be OK.What do I know...remember I bought Tesco.
LK Hyman
22 Feb 2017
Re: LKH Lazy M,Doesn't sound as if you need any advice, m8 ... especially from a stranger on a bb.FWIW I hold and really like National Grid (6.9% of wad, number four on the Top of the Pops). High yield, nice and safe, gotta love a monopoly plus some exposure to the USA in case the £ tanks further). I also hold and quite like Glaxo (7.2% of wad and number three).Have been looking at Dairy Crest but haven't taken the plunge. Milk and cream prices going up mebbe not good news for their cheese ... and how much future growth is there in cheese anyhoo? The baby food components sound interesting but they're still small and won't they get reamed by the brand owners on price for supplying what may just be a commodity?Good luck with the spreadsheets ... I'd be interested to know what you think of one minnow I really like ... Treatt (5.4% and number five)LKH on the flybridge
Lazy M
22 Feb 2017
LKH LKHI would not normally hold this proportion of cash...brought about by accumulation of dividends and especially by a transfer from a pension plan largely based on gilts and bonds which was at risk of experiencing a substantial capital reduction in order to comply with government rules.I hold all of those mentioned in my last post as well as ..for example.. Aviva, Glaxo, IMI, Lloyds banking, Black Rock Greater Europe Trust, European Assets Trust, Henderson Asia Pacific Trust and my all time disaster Tesco... Very sloppy thinking when I bought this one - still even Warren got it wrong.As explained.. I am looking for a home for the cash.. possibly Boeing, DS Smith, Intercontinental Hotels, Dairy Crest, National Grid. I need to do some proper valuation of these. Some effort required eh? Out with my valuation spread-sheets. Just bought New City High Yield Trust. Ideas gratefully received.
T-D
22 Feb 2017
Re: LKH Lazy MAlways good to keep some powder dry, especially in these uncertain times.Good luck with whatever you choose to do with your 25%
LK Hyman
21 Feb 2017
Re: LKH Lazy M,"Good examples of this are .. Ricardo and .... Even Rio"Ricardo is on my watch list and I hold RIO. I quite like Stryker but hold Smith & Nephew instead."My problem...25% of my portfolio in cash. Help!!'Hmmm. That seems a lot of cash to me, but I confess to an attitude which says: "Be invested in shares ... don't have too much in cash". But I wouldn't presume to suggest any particular shares without knowing what you've already got. LKH on the flybridge
Lazy M
21 Feb 2017
LKH LKCouldn't agree more. Me 2.7% I do like companies that stick to their knitting. In this case sausage skins. Good examples of this are Hill and Smith, Polypipe, Ricardo, Stryker, McDonalds and even Next. Even Rio... if they would just stick to projects with real scale. Total return - the name of the game in my opinionMy problem...25% of my portfolio in cash. Help!!
LK Hyman
21 Feb 2017
Re: Neptune The Buzz,Perhaps Uncle Warren and the Brazilian top boys should lower their sights size-wise, after their humiliation at the hands of Unilever, and take a pop at making snorkers instead?Walk first, then run, eh?LKH etc
LK Hyman
21 Feb 2017
Re: Neptune The Buzz,Mr Market seems pleased!This puppy is one of the minnows in my wad at 1.4% thereof, but I have high hopes for the new factories in the USA and China. If Devro's highly skilled fleischmeisters can get those two working as well as the Czech factory we should see some encouraging action.LKH on the flybridge
The buzz
21 Feb 2017
Neptune Neptune seem to be 'on-board' again:-16.9.2016 21,554,131 up to 23,453,19423.1.17 23,393,030 down to 23,317,90117.2.17 22,599,018 up to 23,801,270ie Their current holding is the highest that it has been recently. With the results due out at the 1st March. One can surmise that they must have a good idea what the results will be - and have positioned themselves accordingly.The B
