The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Today's Price Rise Just added another 4k and also a 5k dollop. One has to wait until about 11 am for things to start to move and also later for the tight spreads. Not sure where the selling has come from but the confidence by Octopus investments makes me consider a fundamental support presence. Must be a huge demand for barbecue products at the moment so sausage skins must be in demand - I would suggest over much of Europe as the warm weather is widespread. Time will tell if this is a good time to buy back, but I think that I would be greedy hoping for a better price and end up being uninvested and potentially missing out on a recovery in the share price that I feel should be nearer to 250p and the moment and over £3 in a couple of years - well those are my thoughts for what they are worth - but I could be wrong again!! The Buzz
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Today's Price Rise Bought back in - yesterday - bought 4k at 198.05p. That is my buy price. I intend to buy up to a further 9k below that price if it gets below that level again - replacing stock sold at a higher price. Recycling money from the good profit I recently made with PFD. I think that all the sign that I see are for another promising set of results from DVO, plus the dividend is very attractive. The Buz
Boring Bernie
16 Apr 2018
Today's Price Rise Well, the sp went up by not far off 10% today, for which I couldn't see any particular reason, so, contrary to the idea of letting your winners run, I sold about a third of my holding here at prices >=220p.I thought that price was on the higher side of fair value, pushing towards overvalued, but am still holding a good ( for me ) chunk.BB - puzzled as to the sudden jump in pric
The buzz
28 Feb 2018
Re: Final Results Look Good (to me!) Hi BB,You gave a fair summary of your analysis. I have not given a 'buy', although looking at where the share price has been recently (and the higher level of the FTSE) and the improved financial position, I had anticipated that there would have been some upward share movement.I have had a more thorough reading of the text in the final report plus the main slides in the presentation. My over-riding impression is that DVO had been in a squall in 2016 but has sailed through it and things are much better. The debt and pension deficit looks to be reducing - and the dividend can be held: key area of concern around 2016.Production in the new factories should increase and in turn the volumes. It is going to take another year for the exceptionals to work through, but I anticipate improving profit as the cost base goes down / factories operate at full capacity. The woolly area is matching market demand with capacity - in one of the slides it is suggested that with the increase in demand the balance is now better - a potentially higher margins?So I plan to remain a holder to benefit from the dividend and what I perceive to be future growth.The B
Boring Bernie
27 Feb 2018
Re: Final Results Look Good (to me!) The BuzzThe results were fine, and, on many metrics, we currently ( ~195p ) look fairly valued.I'm happy to hold for the fairly chunky divi for a while, but with anticipated growth in profits of maybe somewhere close to 10% per annum, there doesn't really seem an overwhelming argument for adding to my holding here.
The buzz
27 Feb 2018
Re: Final Results Look Good (to me!) Final results presentation on DVO web site:-[link] must admit being a tad disappointed at the share price movement so far today. There is no point huffing and puffing about the share price: Mr Market will make up his mind where it will be. All that one can do is review the facts as presented and make one's own judgement. If nothing else a 4% return via the dividend is very useful, especially as I do not see much justification for a fall in the share price - indeed I am anticipating some future share price growth.The lower sales volumes in S America are a historical well known issue. The key thing is that DVO report that things have improved ".....final quarter sales recovering to a level comparable to prior year." The slightly negative that I spotted was a slower than anticipated ramp up in production in the USA "Whilst there has been some good progress at the plant in South Carolina, output volumes in 2017 fell short of projections." They are clearly working on this and presumably now that the USA uses the same technology as used elsewhere in DVO (the previous USA plant used a different technology), that the remaining issues should be relatively straightforward to resolve.On plus side, the new factory in China seems to be doing really well - "The plant in Nantong performed particularly strongly in 2017, achieving high levels of efficiency and productivity across a range of products. This plant is close to achieving the output levels originally envisaged, with sales matching output in the latter part of the year."Still lots more reading to do - although what jarred a bit was using a discount rate of only 2.5% which (see earlier post) seems unduly pessimistic and means that the predicted pension deficit is slightly larger than it really should be.One observation re-presentation - there is quite a bit about growth and increase in sales. ie DVO clearly consider that they are in a growth phase. If that is the case, then future profits should grow, the debt gets written down more quickly further improving covenant ratios etc etc.The B
The buzz
27 Feb 2018
Final Results Look Good (to me!) My quick flip through the results before the market opens is: the results are inline with my expectations with profit holding up, turnover increasing, debt down considerably (covenant ration improved from 2.7 to 2.1) the pension deficit falling (£82m from £96m)and the dividend held. The Devro 100 programme has exceeded expectations and H2 was good.The FD's (future CE) statement (echoed by the Chairman) summing up the future includes:-"We expect further volume growth in 2018, supported by the introduction of the new Fine Ultra product platform, and continued manufacturing efficiency improvements, in particular at our US plant. We will continue to reduce net debt, building on the good progress made in 2017. "Whilst mindful of ongoing pressures from input cost inflation and exchange rate volatility, at this early stage of the year the Board believes that Devro is well placed to make good progress in 2018.""Now for some more detailed analysis.The B
nick2name
22 Feb 2018
Re: Pension Deficit - Mortality Figures sorry chaps, hmg changed the rules, neither of us put enough in the pot to pay your expectation of pensionso tough shlt it aint gonna get paidget used to it
The buzz
22 Feb 2018
Pension Deficit - Mortality Figures I have just been poring over the BAE SYSTEMS results out today.[link] thing that really caught my eye were the revised mortality assumptions had reduced their UK pension deficit by £0.97b !!! The next question is (assuming Devro adopts the same revised calculations) what will be the corresponding impact with Devro's pension deficit?Well it is not quite comparing apples with apples but there are strong similarities.BAE schemeUK Male aged 65 now 86-88 (from 86-89). ie Average life expectancy is 87 (was 87.5).UK Female aged 65 now 89-90 (from 89-90). ie Average life expectancy 89.5 (was 89.5).Also reductions for males/ females aged 45.Reduction in life expectancy by 1 year equates to a reduction of £1.1b (£0.97b declared)Discount rate 2.6/2.7% (was 2.7/2.7%) for past/future service.DVO scheme in 2016 reportMale aged 65 has life expectancy 22.5 ie 87.5 years (ie same as BAE scheme last year).Female aged 65 has life expectancy 24.8 ie 89.8 years (ie 0.3 years higher than for BAE).Discount rate 2.6%So I would suggest that the DVO will reduce the UK male aged 65 life expectancy from 87.5 to 87. That might not sound very much, but DVO state that increasing life expectancy by 1 year (no mention of gender) increases the pension deficit by £11.2m. If all employees were 65 year old males then the reduction in their life expectancy by 0.5 year will cause the deficit to be reduced by £5.6m. That won't be the case, but a useful reduction in the pension deficit will arise.Discount rate - not too sure what DVO will adopt - if they take the half way house BAE value of about 2.65% then the discount rate used will increase by 0.05%. DVO state that an increase in discount rate reduces the pension deficit by £15.8m, so a 0.05% increase will be of the order of £3m.What does this mean in the big picture? Ignoring the uplift due to increase in value of investments and DVO's pension contributions, the deficit of £96m will be reduced in the range £3m to £8.6+m).Spreading my wings to valuation -DVO had pension assets in 2016 of £255m. It would not be unreasonable to assume a significant increase in excess of £10m to £20m. The overall effect should be a marked reduction in then pension deficit - we will know when the results come out on the 27th February.The B
The buzz
24 Jan 2018
No "Year End Trading Update" I like to think that the absence of a "Year End Trading Update" this year (the one in 2017 was the very first one) is a good sign as they do not have to forewarn us of bad news on the production front this time. I will be satisfied if the full year results are in line with the trading update of 9.11.2017.We are now waiting for the announcement of the Full Year Results on 27th February to find out more.The B
The buzz
12 Jan 2018
Re: Neptune Increased holding ..but what I am waiting for is the "Year End Trading Update" that was last issued on 11th January 2017.I am hoping that the positive trading update of 9.11.2017 and the increase in holding by Neptune (who presumably have a good idea how trading has been going) will mean that the next update is positive.The B
Rhino1958
12 Jan 2018
Neptune Increased holding Nice to seeNeptune Investment Management Limited increasing holding
The buzz
15 Dec 2017
Support Level Last night I was on the verge of a significant top up when the 'buy' price hit 217p only to be thwarted by the 16:30 'bell' that sneaked up on me! Today the price has not only risen a bit, but I have noticed some significant purchases at 220p (currently 219p-221.25p). I conclude that below 220p is a good price to buy DVO at the moment! Roll on the 'Year End Trading Update' at the start of January.The B
The buzz
12 Dec 2017
Re: F.DIRECTOR TOPS UP Well so he should buy some more shares if he is going to be the new CE. I hope that he does well for DVO - his financial background should be useful while DVO pays down the debt on its recent capital investments. Actually, going back to December 2016 there are several director purchases recorded, so perhaps the others should join in as well?Not long before the end of the year trading statement due around 11th January. If it follows on like the statement in 9th November then it will be good news.The B
KEEPING CALM MIKE
11 Dec 2017
F.DIRECTOR TOPS UP Rutger Helbing, Financial Director, bought 10,000 shares in the company on the 11th December 2017 at a price of 226.28p. The Director now holds 27,500 shares. K.C.M.
