gamesinvestor
18 Aug 2016
Re: Off Topic - RIT and Rathbones "I have got a bit of LGEN, which isn't that different from RAT conceptually."I'm beginning to regret my LGEN entry. The difference seems to be that LGEN is diverging away from pure and simple wealth management, and investing in risky infrastructure projects and leveraging up on other peoples offloaded annuity liabilities.Similar, in history, possibly chalk and cheese in future direction.RAT has and is (he hopes) conservatively managed. I'm beginning to think Nigel doesn't give a monkeys as long has he drives up the short term numbers.Games
LK Hyman
18 Aug 2016
Re: Off Topic - RIT and Rathbones Games,I am in RIT ... so long as Jake keeps the boy Nat's hands well away from any of the controls!Thanks for the RAT heads up. For some doubtless illogical reason I don't like to invest in such companies ... though I have got a bit of LGEN, which isn't that different from RAT conceptually.LKH on the flybridge
The buzz
17 Aug 2016
Re: AJ Bell online trading issues I tend to buy/ sell progressively in 'small' amounts - but have relatively recently bought and sold DVO with Halifax Share Brokers without a problem.eg bought 3000 on 20.5.2016 at 2.4878and then sold 3000 on 4.7.2016 at 2.750197The B
gamesinvestor
17 Aug 2016
Off Topic - RIT and Rathbones LK -- You are in RIT, I assume?Wondered if you'd looked at Rathbone Brothers, as I recently researched it and make a commitment of 2.22% of my wad on it.Games --- ticker symbol is RAT, I hope that is not a bad omen and you manage to smell one!!
gamesinvestor
17 Aug 2016
AJ Bell online trading issues LK -- I get this increasingly, and sometimes with highly liquid large caps.Just to test it, I tried again just now for £10,000 of Devro -- rejected, £5,000 rejected with error message asking to call and deal over the phone (£29.95).Tried for £2,500 and it came back with 2.47 - so that was about the maximum I could deal online at that time. (time 4.27 this afternoon)I have complained to AJ Bell a few weeks ago that I'm experiencing this very regularly across all stocks and they said that they have a policy to deal on tighter spreads.This is insane and I'm thinking of closing my AJ Bell account if I can't get a resolution to this.I don't want to deal by phone or use limits as the error message suggests - I didn't experience this problem with AJ Bell all the years I've held the account and it concerns me that others, via other brokers, are not experiencing this problem -- as you stated re Barclays.In the short term they seem to have done me a favour as the stock looks like it's hit 245.5.However, it'll be difficult to deal with companies like Devro if you can not buy or sell much larger quantities.Games
LK Hyman
17 Aug 2016
Re: Stock liquidity Games,£2.522915 at 1300 hours on 12 August.LKH etc
gamesinvestor
17 Aug 2016
Re: Stock liquidity LK - What price did you get from Barclays, as I suspect and I have been told by AJ Bell that they have a tighter spread allowance than other brokers.Games
LK Hyman
17 Aug 2016
Re: Stock liquidity Games,"The highest quantity was for £2,000 worth of stock."I had no problem the other day buying rather more than £2,000 worth from Barclays Stockbrokers, though I felt I was slightly gypped on the price. Trouble is, I can't be arsed to spend much time trying to get the best price once I've decided to buy summat ... silly boy!I don't normally experience any problem buying via AJ Bell for my and Mrs LKH's Sipps, though I tend to stick with large caps with pension money.LKH on the flybridge, at anchor, Auchmithie
gamesinvestor
17 Aug 2016
Stock liquidity Still looking at this.Tried to see what the availability was for buying this stock online yesterday and it was blocked several times.The highest quantity was for £2,000 worth of stock.This is a problem seen with many 250 level stocks and via AJ Bell in the last 6 months.Anyone else notice this restriction of late, or is it simply AJ Bell?Games
Ripley94
15 Aug 2016
Re: Starting to Top Up Chairman and others brought @ 2.48 ... " A regular purchase transaction "not sure its 10p a pop down on that.... about even.
LK Hyman
14 Aug 2016
Re: I'm not in yet! Games,Two excellent posts from you, m8. I won't try to respond to each point you make, only this one for now:"40% of this of this 7% decline was in China, not a great start for the future porkers is it?"The thing about China is that Devro's sales have thus far involved imported skins. I can well believe that this makes it hard for them to compete with locally manufactured product. Once they get their new manufacturing site in China up and running I'd expect them to be able to compete head on with local suppliers and take full advantage of every Chinaman's desire to stuff his face with snorkers. Don't forget that there are an awful lot of the little guys in the Middle Kingdom.As for Diageo, you're spot on when you say that my disappointment is mainly with Ivan and Vijay. I never trusted the latter the moment I first saw that hateful little goatee that he sports, and Ivan just looks too self-satisfied for my liking. There's clearly a lot of enthusiasm in Diageo, and they are pretty good marketers, though they seem to have lost their way with some of the more anally retentive advertising that they're doing for Johnnie Walker and some of the flavoured vodka that they're doing seems just desperate, but overall I'm not sorry to see the Hyman family holding reduced to <2% of the shrunken wad.LKH on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
14 Aug 2016
Competition landscape [link] article with this as an extract :-"""Yet sausage casing manufacturing is a huge international industry, comprising companies ranging in size from small family firms to multinationals with production plants and sales offices in virtually all parts of the globe. 
Competition for sales and for the raw material used is fierce, described by one leading supplier of natural casings as “a war of attrition”. There is the added dimension of two main and distinct 
types of casing on the market — natural and collagen.
"""""Some of the players apart from Devro :-1. China makes a significant and growing contribution to casings manufacturing, and demand for raw material.2. VISCOFAN - already has a plant in China and is about to build another. Vince Minchella, area sales manager with the company, says: “We are a global company and we see it as strategically important that we have a footprint on continents around the world where our products are going to be required.3. DAT-Schau - One company with a foot in all the casings camps is Danish-based DAT-Schaub. As well as claiming to be the world’s largest single-company producer of hog casings and a key player in the sheep casings industry, it also represents some of the main companies trading in alternatives to natural casings, including Viscofan, Naturin and Visko. 4. TruNet - last autumn DAT-Schau, it increased its joint activities with UK and Ireland food industry supplier TruNet Packaging Services, acquiring 50% of the shareholding in the Derbyshire-based firm.5. W Weschenfelder & Sons - UK-based family business W Weschenfelder & Sons, produces natural casings and supplies collagen.Looks like the price of raw materials (sheep gut) and raw materials for collagen have both gone up, and in the case of the former, by 300% in recent years.Shortages of sheep material is also a big factor, there simply isn't enough slaughtering to satisfy demand.Ultimately this next statement is a double edged sword -- It's a commodity product, yes it offers potential cost savings for sausage manufacturers, but there is no additional value added to the end customer -- he doesn't care what it's wrapped in."Devro has invested in research to ‘prove’ to customers, who are moving from gut to collagen, that sales are not affected. “We commissioned an independent study by Kantar Worldpanel that indicated that consumers do not consider ‘skin type’ when purchasing a sausage,” claims Hamilton. “Instead, 
they opt for factors such as meat 
content, fat content, flavour, price and so on.""Games -- interesting, but still on the fence. Breakfast now -- sausages, no?
gamesinvestor
13 Aug 2016
Re: I'm not in yet! Interesting, I've started to read a bit more as I'm now naturally curious -- giving up Diageo was no easy task for you I know and save for Unilever it was probably one of your long term planned holds, somewhat marred by Ivan and Vijay.I'm just reading the interim report and the first thing that smacks me in the face is this :-"""Revenue unchanged year on year, with exchange rate benefits offsetting effects of lower sales volumes"""In a high growth, richer, pork eating world -- why are they selling less, a big 7% less to boot?Everything else is now secondary, but these are the other points :-40% of this of this 7% decline was in China, not a great start for the future porkers is it?Has there been a naming and shaming of people who buy Burberry as too flashy whilst eating a sausage sandwich -- let's face it you wouldn't want ketchup down your $thousand rain coat now would you?""Re UK-Europe -- "Sales in some markets in this region were impacted by competitive pressure"""Just who are the competitors and are they caning the market better than Devro?"Sales in North America continued to perform well, with revenue increasing 8% (broadly unchanged in local currency)">> Well that doesn't surprise me - the lardasses will eat more of everything on a gargantuan scale."""There is talk of low and high end product??"""What constitutes a low end or a high end as far as a sausage casing is concerned?Transformation plans -- China and US production sites now up and running, but due to delays China won't contribute to profits until 2018 -- that's a loong time to carry this baby innit??Is there a concern that all this capacity is coming on stream just as sales have fallen off the proverbial? -- or are the sales falls due to historical inability to supply - the answer here is crucial I believe."The largest element of the increase in underlying operating profit compared with prior year was input cost reductions (+£2.1m), mainly in relation to further reductions in hide prices and energy costs."">>> This is encouraging, but I wanna see growth -- are they going to get some top sales guys in place?Transformation costs 2 --- is it all over now, will they stop spending and profits will fall through the well into my bank faster than a dropped stone perhaps next year?""""Due to the complexity of the transformation, the transition period for the new US plantis now expected to be longer will be completed by the end of 2016.This longer transition period has resulted in an increase in forecast exceptional costs for the full year in 2016 to approximately £20M ----- which will be £6 million higher than previously indicated.""""""">>>> OUCH that's a lorra lolly to dole out on a factory.!!!!""Finance expense for the full year (excluding pensions) is expected to be approximately £6-7 million.""">>> That's a high % of profits in interest payments LK -- i.e. 40% of 2015 pretax of £15M and if they hit £30M next year, that's still 20% They are going to have to grow like crazy to get rid of this load.I suppose they think it's all hunky dory, with this statement :-""""""At 30 June 2016 the net debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.9 times and the EBITDA to net interest payable ratio was 9 times, meaning both ratios were within their limits (of <3.25 times and >4 times respectively) despite the recent changes in exchange rates.There will still be some cash outflow in the second half related to the transformation, both in terms of capital expenditure and exceptional items, but by the end of the year the Board expects the net debt to EBITDA covenant ratio to be lower than at 30 June 2016. """""""Pension? -- What's the deal, how much are they in for?"""The group’s net pension obligations increased to £77.9 million at 30 June 2016, from £56.4 million at 31 December 2015, which primarily reflects a decrease in discount rates across the group schemes."""Oh dear -- the pension liability inc
LK Hyman
13 Aug 2016
Re: I'm in! Games,Good post, m8, and your concerns are valid looking backwards. However I believe that the two new sites in the US and China will turbocharge Devro's future performance, assuming no clusterfucks in the commissioning process, which is always possible.The company used to be part of Johnson & Johnson, a company for which I have the highest regard. Not a reason to buy it ... but a soft factor in its favour.Essentially I like food companies. Everyone's gotta eat! And Devro has a strong position at the quality end of a specialist product which should see steadily rising demand in future as the world stuffs more and more snorkers down its throat as people get richer.LKH on the flybridge tracking steadily north
gamesinvestor
12 Aug 2016
Re: I'm in! LK - You swapped your beloved Captain Morgan for a sausage skin.What's the big attraction here -- given the relative low ROCE - 6%The borrowings at 133M are pretty hefty compared to post tax profit last year of £14.6M -- that's some big ratio, what?Revenue on this baby is flatter than Diageo -- the revenue last year was £230M which is pretty much what it was in 2011.Cash flow has been pretty much uncovered for the last 5 years -- is that going to change, improve?Operating margins in 2011 were 18+% -- today they are at 8 -- big shrink, I assume because of competition, no?P/E has shrunk so that's OK but where is the hidden gem -- I've not yet spotted it, you'll have to enlighten me.Games
