The buzz
27 Oct 2016
Trading Update Coming Up Last year there was a trading update on 17th November. Am I being unduly optimistic of a reasonable update coming up judging by today's strength in the share price on apparently low turnover?The B
The buzz
13 Oct 2016
Re: Mystery of Share Price Movement? The price fell back to my buy zone today - so topped up with 2218 shares at 224.375p this afternoon. The price then went up so did not buy any more. I cannot think of a reason for the fall - unless it is something to do with the debt denominated in US$ (possibly giving a pseudo increase in liabilities in £s) - but I think that I previously dismissed that as a bit of smoke and mirrors as the debt will be paid for by earnings from the overseas factories who earn in US$.The other thought that I had was - is it to do with pricing pressure due to Brexit - cf Tesco/Unilever spat. However according to the fact sheet, only 12% of production came from the UK in 2015:-[link] even if all the input materials were imported, it is still small beer in terms of DVO as a whole. Not to mention that the UK export prices would be lower.So could it be fretting about discount rates on the pension deficit? The 2015 report says that a decrease in rates of 0.25% increases the deficit by £12m. .. but there are pensions in Australia and the USA to muddy the waters. .. and talk about increasing the US rates.From p21 of DVO's 2016 interim report, the discount rates used are as follows:-[link] Australia UK USDec 2015 4.0% 3.75% 3.95%Jun 2016 3.2% 3.0% 3.25%The change in UK discount rate was 0.75% equates to a £(0.75/0.25)*12m=£36m increase in discount rate, but in fact the deficit rose by 'only' £21.5m from £56.4m to £77.9m.So what is the expected increase from June 2016? Taking Tesco as a very recent example, they changed their discount rate from 3.8% to 2.1%. Taking 2.1% as the current discount rate, then DVO needs to go from 3.0% to 2.1% ie a 0.9% reduction - or an increase in liability of £(0.9/0.25)*12m=£43.2m. Even taking this worst case increase, the deficit is still manageable with profits of around £30m pa.To conclude - I do not see any fundamental reason for the fall - if anything the fall in the value of the £ should increase their assets and income (denominated in £s) so I would anticipate that the price is probably going to bounce soon - possibly with a bit of help from Neptune management? .. but I could be wrong - again.The B
The buzz
06 Oct 2016
Mystery of Share Price Movement? Well I sold two dollops at 261p only a couple of days ago - surprised at the big jump - and equally surprised at the subsequent rapid fall. Now the trend is up again today - I have been watching the price relentlessly rising on peanuts of trade. The previous price rise also seemed to be almost disconnected to trading on the LSE. The share price movements just now have been out of kilter with the minimal transactions - in my view, Now 245-246.25p - the latest rise was after on cumulative trades of less than 1k shares.The bottom line is that one must just trade when it is to one's advantage and ignore the price shenanigans.The B
The buzz
04 Oct 2016
Re: Up up up!!! How about market enthusiasm, the large overseas assets, the end of a forced seller dumping stock, someone knows that the new factories are operating OK, shorters forced to close positions due to the large share price rise, realisation that the earnings are in $ terms and this translates into more £s etc etc?Anyway I had been doing my best to support the price at lower levels (see my earlier posts) - hopelessly too many - so ditched a few just now at 261.0144p a share. Not because I think that the price had peaked - more to do with getting my portfolio in a better balanced shape!Share price still strong - currently 258.75-261p.The B
rumrunner
04 Oct 2016
Re: Up up up!!! Movements due to weakness of the £ sterling and strength of the dollar??
Boring Bernie
04 Oct 2016
Re: Up up up!!! The world seems to have gone mad mate. I've got a few mid-caps which have gone up today by about the same amount without any really good reason.I mean, it's nice, but it's odd too.
gamesinvestor
04 Oct 2016
Up up up!!! Up she goes.Is there news or is it just the market going bananas?Let's hope it doesn't do an Airlander 10Games
II Editor
26 Sep 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Buy, hold or sell: Neptune UK Mid Cap "Mark Martin, manager of Money Observer Rated Fund FUND
XC8:Neptune UK Mid Cap, explains which stocks he has been buying, holding and selling.Buy: Genus (LON:GNS)Neptune UK Mid Cap first bought into animal genetics company LSE:GNS:Genus in March ..."[link]
nick2name
23 Sep 2016
Re: Neptune Investment Management Ltd and wot's morepension deficits do not change each yearwot changes are soneone's guesses at to wot will happen in the future
LK Hyman
23 Sep 2016
Re: Neptune Investment Management Ltd The buzz," How easy will it be for DVO to manage its pension fund."It is a load of total carp that pension funds have to value their liabilities using bond rates innit though? I know they HAVE to according to rules written by some know-nothing pencil pusher, but still ....One of the iniquitous things about the rule is that it encourages pension funds, whose trustees are normally a bunch of know-nothing goobers, to match their liabilities by actually BUYING this gob sh ite paper. Would you credit it?Personally I have a fair old chunk of my shrunken wad sat invested in National Grid, which has a yield of as near as damnit 4%, and which has a really sporting chance of growing its divi at the long run rate of inflation. Consequently it is an ideal investment for a pension fund .... so why in the name of all that's holy cannot pension funds discount their liabilities at a rate nearer to 4% than the 1% or whatever the sam heck it is that they currently have to use, eh?Blimey, if they could use 4% their pension deficits would shrink marvellously .... which might have the effect of driving share prices UP I dunno.As it is, you chust KNOW that, ere long, them bonds bought so expensively by pension funds will start falling precipitately as yields rise. God knows what THAT will do to the ability of the funds to pay their dotard pensioners.Honestly, sometimes I despair!LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
The buzz
23 Sep 2016
Re: Neptune Investment Management Ltd Re Debt in US$s:-From memory, I seem to recollect that about 90% of DVO's production is not in the UK. Yes, had the debt been denominated in pounds sterling then they would not have had the debt increasing in pound terms. However, DVO is a business and should match the income from the business with its loans. Since most of the income is not in sterling then it would be wrong to have had the loans denominated in sterling. Had the loans been in sterling and the pound soared (as hard to believe that it would) then the business would find it more difficult to pay back the loans in sterling from an income predominately in US$.I suspect that some negative sentiment came from the fall out from the cancellation of the Carclo dividend due to its increased pension liabilities following a lower value of discount rate being assumed. DVO has a modest pension deficit and therefore the bean counters will predict a theoretical increase in deficit. Here judgement comes in on the relative size of the predicted pension deficit and the expected profit ie How easy will it be for DVO to manage its pension fund. Plus where interest rates are going. I suspect that no one expected them to go so low for so long, but as and when the interest rates start to increase, the deficit will also start to unwind. I never really rely on promises from politicians but there were also rumours that some changes in accountancy procedures/ assistance were being considered (eg for the steel pension fund) as using a low value for the discount rate was an industry wide problem affecting companies such as BAE Systems who have a relatively far greater pension deficit compared to DVO's.The B
Boring Bernie
23 Sep 2016
Re: added It's been a few years since I sold out here, but I think Devro's likely to turn the corner in the next six to twelve months so they make up a small part of my wad too now
LK Hyman
23 Sep 2016
Re: added Games,"sausage and eggs for breakfast"Enjoy!I wonder if Devro should think of stamping their brand name on every snorker skin? Then, when you get it down your neck, you'd get a warm feeling about Devro every time you had a snorker that you enjoyed.Just a thought!LKH at the LK Wash & Valet
gamesinvestor
23 Sep 2016
added a few more this morning.a heady 1.08% of my bung --- They better get selling.Games -- sausage and eggs for breakfast
gamesinvestor
22 Sep 2016
Re: Neptune Investment Management Ltd Buzz, whilst on he theme of Neptune, I found this article.[link] talks about Genus, Devro and Barrat Developments.The Devro article talks about the debt and the investment behind it as the main reason for the poor share performance due to exchange rate impacting the debt.Games
