Devro Live Discussion

Boring_Bernie 04 Dec 2018

Today's Trading For every buyer, there’s a seller mate, or, in this case, probably sellers. These Dutch folk have increased their holding by 2%, but that means that others have, between them, reduced accordingly. Unless I know the people increasing their holdings have an above average and index beating record, then I take little notice of holdings RNS’s relating to institutions these days. That said, I know nowt about them, so I’ll check them out sometime and see if they’re delivering good to excellent returns for their holders BB

The_buzz 04 Dec 2018

Today's Trading RNS out tonight shows more ii interest:- NN Group NV up from 14.16% to 15.21%. Note they increased their holding from 13.11% to 14.16% only very recently on 20th November. Not sure why a group from Amsterdam would be investing in DVO, although I believe that some time ago a Dutch group was bought by DVO. A further meaningful increase and the overall size of the holding is getting quite significant and presumably indicates that NN Group NV have confidence in the current and future prospects. I am not sure where the transaction has been taking place but no obvious bid deals from this site for the LSE:- [link] Yes the share price has recently been a bit stronger at around 180p, but in my view it is still way too low. The Buzz

Boring_Bernie 26 Nov 2018

Today's Trading That’s a reasonably fair summary. Personally I don’t think much is likely to happen here until it becomes clear that there’s a clear path to a return to growth and maybe even an indication of an increase in the divi. Despite the sp being down ~20% over the last 12 months, I’m happy to hold what I’ve got, but will probably wait and see what the results bring ( presumably in Feb 2019 ) before topping back up. BB

The_buzz 21 Nov 2018

Today's Trading Purchases by directors 16.11.2018 30,000 19.11.2018 5,000 19.11.2018 10,000 Purchases by major share holders 15.11.2018 Blackmore first declaration 3.7%. 19.11.2018 NN Group increases holding from 13.11% to 14.16%. All seem to be strong positive pointers. Perhaps someone should tell the share price that? A weak £ and mainly overseas earnings should be positive. Chairman has announced retirement - price could move up if a good replacement found. No one has mentioned the trading update. For what it is worth, here are a few comments re this statement. “We have seen strong volume performances in the period, notably in North America, Latin America, and South East Asia. However Russia has been challenging and we have seen some continued weakness in Japan.” Really good news to see that the volumes are doing well in N America after the major upheavals there. From memory, Russia historically (many years ago) used to be a big trading partner with DVO, but sanctions etc messed things up a bit, so lower volumes are not all that surprising, but not a major issue. Performance in China seems to be good as well. There is the key word “modest” in the statement:- “The launch of the new Fine Ultra product platform for Continental Europe, Japan and South East Asia will deliver modest sales volumes in 2018. It is expected to be a key driver for growth in 2019 and beyond.” Then the crunch statement:- “Overall edible casing sales volumes for the period were lower than our previously stated expectations, due to a greater than anticipated adverse impact from Russia’s economic and currency environment, and the slightly lower than anticipated ramp-up rate of our new Fine Ultra platform. As such full year edible casing volumes are now expected to be unchanged compared with prior year.” OK expected volumes down a bit due to Russia and a slightly slower ramp up of the Fine Ultra platform, but these appear to me to be too small to make a real difference since:- “Our expectations for the full year remain broadly unchanged as growth in underlying operating profit is expected to be underpinned by a continued improvement in price/mix, especially related to China and Latin America, and the delivery of cost savings… The year-end net debt to underlying EBITDA covenant ratio is expected to remain at 2.1 times, in line with December 2017.” So crucially any concern regarding the high capital costs being incurred recently causing debt issues are progressively being reduced as time passes by. In the mean time DVO is giving out a really good dividend. No doubt the next review by the Daily Telegraph’s Questor will be positive giving a potential for another jump in the share price. To summarise - DVO is a firm hold in my portfolio, gives a good yield and has a share price that in my opinion is much more likely to rise than fall based on recent developments and the share price plot. The Buzz

Rhino1958 16 Nov 2018

Today's Trading Non exec buys 30,000@176 Possible 165 was a bottom probably 220 next barrier to crack

The_buzz 18 Sep 2018

Today's Trading Good spot. Also RNS just out:- [link] So Sterling Securities’ holding has gone from 5% to less than 3%. That must have been a drag on the market, but if the selling has now stopped then there is scope for an uplift. The trouble is 3% is still a sizeable amount that might still be sold. That said it was good to see a solid wave of buys going through. Plus Questor’s recommendation that emphasises that things are better now than last year but surprisingly the share price has not performed. He does point out that the dividend yield is very good, which is one reason why I have bought so many shares. Currently 204-204.5p but solid buys. This link seems to give real time trades:- [link] The Buzz

Boring_Bernie 18 Sep 2018

Today's Trading I noticed the rise earlier as well, and google suggested that a Questor tip was the reason The Telegraph Questor: shares in sausage skin maker Devro seem poised to sizzle, so keep... It is fair to say that this column’s stab at Devro, the maker of sausage skins, is yet to provide hearty returns, with the shares barely 5pc higher since our initial look at the Scottish firm’s menu in January last year. BB

The_buzz 18 Sep 2018

Today's Trading DVO is being very actively traded today and now around 210p a share. No obvious reason for this rise that I can spot. Perhaps someone has tipped this share as a good buy? I am not moaning as I topped up at lower levels (see earlier posts). No plans to sell as yet: the price needs to be at least 220p to give a meaningful profit for me - and DVO has been at that level not all that long ago. Are the Chinese going to tax US sausage skins or something and in turn boosting the demand from their Chinese factory?? The Buzz

The_buzz 01 Aug 2018

Half Year Results Whoops I seem to have got muddled up by posting APF info under DVO. Apologies again! Bought 2080 shares today at 199.3p for my daughter. I think that it is a good solid investment with a good yield for her modest portfolio. I now have more than enough DVO for now and pleased that the price is marginally higher than it was earlier in the week when I was topping up. A bad day for the FTSE100 so not particularly conducive for a big rise in DVO. With all the import taxes flying around, I have some re-assurance that DVO is well placed with factories in both the USA and in China. The Buzz

The_buzz 01 Aug 2018

Half Year Results Again apologies as a bit a bit slow off the mark. This is the update for Narrabri and explains why coal production there was lower than before as outlined in the APF statement, however things should be much better in September. clients3.weblink.com.au 01999660.pdf 462.25 KB Narrabri “ROM coal production for the June quarter was 1.190Mt, down 29% on the previous corresponding period. Saleable coal production for the quarter was 0.878Mt and coal sales were 0.800Mt for the quarter. Full year ROM coal production of 6.289Mt was 13% lower than the previous year. Saleable coal production was 5.840Mt, 16% lower than the previous year and coal sales for the year were 5.760Mt. ROM coal production at Narrabri in the June quarter and second half of FY2018 was impacted by a series of longwall face mechanical issues and by localised weighting events. These factors combined to slow the rate of longwall retreat and have delayed the commencement of the longwall changeout, previously scheduled to occur prior to the end of FY2018. The changeout into longwall panel LW108, the next panel, will commence in July and longwall production is expected to recommence in September. Installation of the accelerated secondary support regime has progressed ahead of schedule in the panel gates roads and in the mains development roadways. Roadway development for the June quarter and full year was 4,579 metres and 17,145 metres respectively.” NB There is a very long informative section on the outlook. It is very positive for thermal coal and optimistic for coking coal. Th Buzz

Boring_Bernie 01 Aug 2018

Half Year Results So, reading the report, we’re probably expected to deliver eps for this year of between 14 and 15p on high single digit growth ? After that, in 2019 onwards, I’d guess we’re be talking about low double digit growth, so ~200p a share seems like fair value for the moment. If, in the next six months, it dropped to below 180p ( unlikely ), or went above 230p ( possible ) , I’d likely add or reduce accordingly, but, for the moment, with a pretty chunky dividend to support it, it’s a pretty sold hold for me. BB

The_buzz 01 Aug 2018

Half Year Results Just posted this on the LSE website These results seem quite solid to me. Key thing is monster fall in the pension deficit from £82m to £57m. Good progress in China and USA is pleasing. Looks like a major launch of the Fine Ultra product will be significant in Q2. I have been topping up quite heavily recently and nearly again this morning at £2, but refrained and now spread 199.2-201.5p. So far turnover is very low so I don’t think that he market has done its sums yet. I had expected the results to be out tomorrow so was quite surprised when I realised that they were already out and I had not done my analysis before the market opened! No surprises and retained the dividend. DVO remains one of the mainstays of my portfolio. Oh I like the last statement “We are focused on continuing to deliver Devro 100 and the Board’s expectations for the full year remain unchanged.” So the message has been very consistent for some time - and DVO now looks to me to be sailing towards a much lower debt position with modern efficient plants and new products a bit traumatic perhaps but things now look so much better to me. I look forward to Q2 Oh as I write there are some big sales -but no price change yet - perhaps I will get some at £2 after all? The Buzz

The_buzz 25 Jul 2018

Today's Price Rise Very mundane tax reason. Sold enough to maximise capital gains free allowance. The plan was always to refill the basket. Ironically the price then leaped up - just my luck - different timing would have given a much better profit margin! I have been steadily buying more back - I think that it is a falling market and DVO is being brought down as well. In mean time made a cool profit with the money in PFD with the money ,so not all missed profit. Made a gamble this morning - bought 5k of WGB at 70p and 3k at 73p. Now 75-81p. One has to take risks and put in meaningful amounts to make profits, although prior to selling out £2+ I had a far larger holding. However my recent purchases in DVO are in loss at the moment despite some substantial buys, but my reading of the chart is that they are near to the bottom of their trading range. Importantly last year’s half year results came out 2-8-2017, so they are not that far away. The trading update of 25-4-2017 makes me expect some more useful results and hopefully a rise in the share price. As per recent DT comment - fly like a butterfly and sting like a bee - I have done the former now for DVO to leap up!! The Buzz

Boring_Bernie 25 Jul 2018

Today's Price Rise @The_buzz When did you sell out mate ? I seem to remember that earlier in the year you seemed quite chipper about Devro’s prospects so presumably a sp rise somewhere relatively recently made you reassess ? Mind you, I took some profits myself, but the sp hasn’t really been attractive enough to me to top back up yet ! BB

The_buzz 25 Jul 2018

Today's Price Rise Called the market’s bluff today. Waited for my ‘forecast’ 10:30ish silly period and low and behold price to buy suddenly diped to 195.8p. Went for an online quote for 2382 shares and denied. They are playing their games - I have bought dollops of over 5k shares online relatively recently. So submitted a limit buy at 195.8p that finally went through at 10:50. Hey presto at the same time a whole load of other buys seemed to be triggered. Now well clear as price is now 197.4-198.6p. It strikes me of one of the old market maker tricks with a big buy order - they reduce the price trying to force out some stop losses to buy on the cheap. Inability to buy at their low spread with no shares on offer made me smell a rat. Their bluff was called by the limit buy and the share price shot back up. Do I get some satisfaction out of ‘beating the system’? Perhaps but one is always wondering if there was something even better to have one - but this will do for now!! The Buzz