onewayticket
25 Mar 2018
Re: Dividend Thank you for the dividend information hardboy.I did think it would retrace a touch and it has. It's one I may look to add with some of next years Isa allowance and to reinvest the dividends. Own due diligence
itsfatboyjim
20 Mar 2018
Re: Just hit 1,000 well, that was short lived
itsfatboyjim
16 Mar 2018
Just hit 1,000
Hardboy
16 Mar 2018
Directors Buying That's more like it
Hardboy
16 Mar 2018
Re: Dividend 15.74p - ex div on 17th May
onewayticket
15 Mar 2018
Dividend I know its not much but can any of the learned poster hint at when the ex dividend date is please?
Bigtex
14 Mar 2018
Re: Update to 2018 earnings projection Stan - yes I heard that as well and re-listened to it to make sure. The FD is clearly talking about underlying profits and if you take him literally it might imply that 2018 underlying earnings for the funeral and plan sales are being projected by him at £43Mill (after allowing some growth in profitability of the Crem business in 2018). With the plan sales likely to return around £9Mill (against £8Mill for 2017) this suggests he only expects the Funerals segment to generate £34Mill of underlying operating profits. Assuming their Jan 19 implied funeral sales of 29,300 Traditional, 13,400 Simple, 20,100 Plan and 4,200 Contract at the prices advised on Jan 19, that gives total Funerals revenue of £191Mill. The FD clearly thinks that underlying operating costs will rise from £142Mill in 2017 to £157Mill in 2018 (while revenues slide by 14%) - I don't.
Bigtex
14 Mar 2018
Re: Update to 2018 earnings projection Bernie - I absolutely take your point re my forecast not squaring with the "significantly lower" comment reiterated in today's announcement. But, I am not attaching too much to their statement and, instead, being driven by my own assumptions. I never believed Simple funerals could be 20% of all funerals in 2018 - given the lag effect the closing mix in Q4 would have had to be around the 25% level to achieve this 20% full year average. Also, I understand that Dignity might feel the need to repeat ONS estimates of deaths but I have a different view and estimate total deaths for 2018 at 600k. Registered deaths in GB are already ahead of last year by 7,000 (5.7%) for the first 9 weeks and, assuming the remainder of the year is flat with 2017, that would take total 2018 deaths to 597k. I am also not as pessimistic as the CEO in expecting Dignity funeral volumes to be lower in 2018 than in 2017 (as expressed in the Jan 19 announcement) although I understand his caution. With favourable results from pricing initiatives and increased deaths in the year, I estimate Dignity funerals performed at 72,000 - a turnaround from recent years. But why not 72,000 - they have reduced Simple funeral prices and held prices (for now) for the other offerings. These metrics would result in total revenue for the Funerals segment of £213Mill - only £10Mill shy of 2017! But I could well be a little light in the operating cost areas. Dignity are regularly telling us that their Funeral costs are largely fixed so I have assumed little additional cost associated with an extra 3,200 funerals. But this extra volume is largely a net of 6,000 fewer of the more costly Traditional funerals and an increase of 6,700 of the Simple funerals and 2,700 of the Arranged funerals. Marketing costs and Director bonus costs will be higher for sure and I have factored this in but could be light.I believe Dignity got its calculations wrong in January and guided accordingly and don't expect them to make a rapid climb-down. Q1 actuals might shed some light on this hypothesis.Is there anyone else out there doing granular projections who would like to comment?
onewayticket
14 Mar 2018
Re: Winnifrith Ripley,There was an easy 30 - 33% here if you simply realised that if you reduce the price - of a market leading offering you will easily sell more. 15 % is not the 20% they were after but its early days, the website needs re-jigged to appeal further and no doubt there will be twists and turns as things go quiet for the next few months. Follow your gut instinct and have the faith to stick with your choices. There have been some real easy gains of late in for instance British Gas, Dignity, Sirius Minerals, Interserve and Velocys and many more and some of those will have further big rises to come or present themselves cheaply again. Own due diligence
the real stan
14 Mar 2018
Re: Update to 2018 earnings projection Did anyone pick up on a comment made by the FD this morning at the presentation to the effect that Crematoria would become approx 50% of profits? See also page 18 in the presentation with analysis or underlying profits. The does this mean 50:50 before overheads which suggests Funeral Services profits fall from £79.5m to c£40m and this £40m fall translates into a fall in Underlying Operating Profit from £104.6m to c£64.6mTranslating the description of a "substantial fall" would suggest something of this order.Thoughts?
II Editor
14 Mar 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Why funerals firm Dignity is still a 'buy' "Lifting the share price gloom surrounding funeralcare firm LSE
TYignity is going to take some time, given the scale of the January profits warning in which the company detailed the fierce price war raging in its sector.But shares in the Sutton ..."[link]
Boring Bernie
14 Mar 2018
Re: Update to 2018 earnings projection TexIt's hard to square your figures of underlying operating profits of 95 million GBP with the equivalent figure just reported of 104.6 millionThe outlook section of today's report says "As indicated in January, the Board believes that whilst the combination of action being taken will lead to substantially lower profits in 2018, it should create a new platform to allow many years of further stable growth." but you're forecasting a drop in underlying profits of a bit less than 10% ?I think "substantially lower" means the board currently think there'll be more of a drop than 10%. Once that's out of the way, and they return to growth, then Dignity will again likely become a good investment.Over the medium to long term, the current sp of just over £10 could well look like a bargain, but it's not so obvious in the short term ( ie the next twelve months ).Totally agree on what you're saying about directors buying, and I'd expect a few RNS's to that effect in the next few working days.BB - still on the sidelines .. looking in, but not tempted just yet.
Ripley94
14 Mar 2018
Re: Winnifrith I see TW has got his subordinate Chris Bailey to blog it down today.Hedging his bet id guess.
Bigtex
14 Mar 2018
Update to 2018 earnings projection After reviewing today's reported info and altering a few assumptions (2018 deaths, % simple funerals, total Dignity funerals and segment operating costs) I now project 2018 underlying Group operating profits at £95Mill. This EXCLUDES the costs of newly appointed Consultants and any restructuring costs incurred or provisioned and any new, currently unknown, pricing initiatives as well as all normal items regarded as exceptional items by the Group.Underlying earnings, on same basis as above now, forecast at £52Mill for underlying eps of marginally over 100p.Today's price uplift is fully justified and the appointment of Consultants (and alert to expected restructuring costs in 2018) is good news for the future.Now that some info re early impact of price changes has been released to the market, the Directors can begin to buy and show their confidence in the future.
Ripley94
14 Mar 2018
Re: Winnifrith Your humility regarding TW i respect Hardboy .I find you posts educational 
