onewayticket
28 Apr 2018
Better Last Few Days I know this will yoyo back and forth with wider markets as it has been doing but its been a better last few days.Own due diligence
Boring Bernie
19 Apr 2018
Re: 1st Half Forecast Fair play to you for calling this one right so far Bigtex.I'd adopt a simpler model, and say that, if you strip out the effect of the increased deaths in Q1, then profits would likely have been 5 to 10% down.That suggests that, if deaths are static ( and they likely won't be ) and sales follow the Q1 pattern, then underlying profits for the year would be between 70 and 74 million, with equivalent underlying eps of between 115 and 122p and basic eps of between 103 and 109p.That currently ( sp is ~1025p ) means that the company is currently valued at something like 9 times possible future earnings for 2018.Going forward, a lot now depends on whether Dignity can stop the rot, and return to growth in the next 18 to 24 months. I'm reasonably sure they can stop the rot ( ie profits for 2019 will likely be much the same, adjusted for one-offs and death rates, as for 2018 ), but whether or not they can return to growth is harder to call. If they can, then, with the divi and single-digit growth, then you could argue a case for valuing the company at 14 to 15 times expected earnings by the end of 2019, but, if they can't return to growth, then £10 or thereabouts seems like fair value.BB ( I'm not a holder, but mildly tempted to buy back in if the price is right )
Bigtex
19 Apr 2018
1st Half Forecast Yesterday's trading announcement helped support the underlying integrity of my financial model for Dignity but Q1 should really be viewed with great caution given the extraordinary quarterly death numbers which should be expected to moderate through Q2. I have tentatively estimated 1st half registered GB deaths at 324k (5.2% ahead of 2017) and based my projection accordingly.Underlying Operating Profit in Q2 is projected to be roughly half the level of Q1 resulting in a half year EBITDA of around £65Mill and Earnings of £34Mill. For every 5k GB deaths above/below the assumed 324k, Earnings could be flexed by £1.5Mill.Investec's full year EBITDA projection of £86Mill should now be reviewed upwards regardless of the many uncertainties remaining. All above numbers exclude any exceptional restructuring costs resulting from L.E.K Consulting work.
onewayticket
18 Apr 2018
Re: Played out exactly as I thought Its a shame about the slight pullback today.A good day though overall what with this one and another I hold and recently bought more of beginning to break upwards again.Own due diligence.
TX2
18 Apr 2018
Re: Played out exactly as I thought A fund in which I have a modest interest managed by Phoenix UK asset management bought a 5% interest in Dignity in the period up to the beginning of March.They have not yet disclosed their reasons,as they usually do so they may have been in the market for more, other than indicating that they had been waiting for 14 years to buy in at a reasonable price.
onewayticket
18 Apr 2018
Played out exactly as I thought Great news overall given previous falls.A lot of institutions and people have lost a lot of money in falls from £24 - £26 to £7.50 when they did not need to. They should have done this in quarterly trials across regions and didn't need to announce the digital upgrading spend.Lets see if the institutions call for some heads to roll, particularly given some selling out prior.Own due diligence
Hardboy
18 Apr 2018
Re: Q1 Forecast Tex, well done on the calcs - spot on. Today's trading update is very welcome - as are all updates - but it is a bit of a curate's egg. Deaths are up on the quarter, but expected to be marginally down on the full year. Sales are up slightly, but profits flat. The proportion of simple funerals is below the Boards expectations. but full year profits, at this early stage, look like being above expectations. So it's like every good point has a corresponding bad point. (Isn't business always like that?) On consideration, the most important thing for a business is profit (sanity as opposed to vanity) and the indications are this will be above expectations so on the whole I am encouraged by the update.
Bigtex
11 Apr 2018
Q1 Forecast Now that the Q1 registered deaths numbers are in (at 182,500), I estimate Q1 Underlying Operating Profit to be flat with last year (of £37.4Mill) or slightly higher. Any material shortfall against this estimate will imply a very disappointing market share outcome (following earlier pricing moves) and/or poor cost control either of which should cause the Board significant embarrassment and meet with investor disappointment/alarm.
reader61
10 Apr 2018
Re: Thought It's clear these directors are naïve at talking to the market hence the botched announcement of lower cost plans. Thus until there are some material facts appear after a period of running, suspect the sp is at the mercy of the wind. The yield must now be pretty high - wonder if they'll dare to change that any time soon?
onewayticket
09 Apr 2018
Thought £9.00 might hold But not so. It seems to oscillate with the wider market.Own due diligence
onewayticket
02 Apr 2018
Re: NHS - winter crisis I mentioned this a while back when ambulances were queued up at A+E departments and patients were having to wait in the corridors outside for extended times for treatment and the knock on effect this might have.It seems to be resurfacing again with thoughts it may extend into the summer.[link] due diligence
onewayticket
02 Apr 2018
Childrens Funeral Fund Being established by the Government is a welcome step for all grieving parents.Many recent articles abound.It will be interesting if this develops into a contracted service.Own due diligence.
gamesinvestor
30 Mar 2018
Another article with a less than +ve spin [link]
II Editor
28 Mar 2018
NEW ARTICLE: A positive spin on Dignity shares " DIGNITY (LSE
TY) Having been asked about a company named after the famous Deacon Blue song, we took a hard look at their price potentials. In light of their principal activity, perhaps a miracle is due for LSETYignity given the time of ..."[link]
II Editor
27 Mar 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 28/03/2018 " DIGNITY (LSETY) Having been asked about a company named after the famous Deacon Blue song, we took a hard look at their price potentials. In light of their principal activity, perhaps a miracle is due given the time of year. Then again, ..."[link]
